PA-17: Conor Lamb moves from 'Likely' to 'Lean' Democratic

[RandySF]

At a time when most GOP challengers are struggling to gain traction and attention, retired Army Ranger Sean Parnell is a notable exception. The Fox News contributor and "Outlaw Platoon" author has been singled out for support by the president and got a prime RNC speaking role, helping raise more than $1.5 million and keep pace with Lamb, a fellow veteran, on the Pittsburgh airwaves.

Lamb, a Marine veteran, received a dream district in 2018 court-ordered remap and beat low-key GOP Rep. Keith Rothfus by 12 points that fall. But private polls show Parnell running more competitively than Rothfus, and Democrats are also worried about the potential for thousands of suburban Democrats' mail ballots to be rejected due to inexperience and error. Even so, Lamb remains the favorite to win a second term.


https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-rating-changes-seven-races-move-mostly-towards-democrats

[ebbie15644]

1. Parnell's ads are effective

and I haven't seen many from Connor

[DeminPennswoods]

2. Parnell is very telegenic

I live in the 17th and haven't seen that many ads from either candidate, but Parnell is extremely telegenic where Lamb isn't. The latest Lamb ad I've seen is one of him saying he's an "independent" Dem and touts some bi-partisan bills he's either sponsored or co-sponsored involving vets. I'm voting for him, but wish I had a better alternative.

It would not surprise me at all if Lamb gets upset here. It will depend on how big a lead he gets from the Allegheny county part of the district. Parnell will win Beaver county easily.