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Johnny2X2X

(24,207 posts) Thu Oct 1, 2020, 08:51 AM Oct 2020

538 Election Forecast Biden 79 Trump 21

State polls are driving the slight movement, they've been great for Biden lately.

538 also has an article about how Trump's dwindling chances could make him dangerous. Next 4 weeks are going to be crazy, I don't blame anyone who disengages to take a breath from time to time.

8 replies

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Highlight:

538 Election Forecast Biden 79 Trump 21 (Original Post) Johnny2X2X Oct 2020 OP

This will be only time when Teens for Trump will not bring a smile to his face Le Roi de Pot Oct 2020 #1

Chance of "The election hinges on a recount" is down to 5 in a 100 Klaralven Oct 2020 #2

Also worth noting is those are hedged based on the remaining days till election Statistical Oct 2020 #3

As a golfer, this makes him smile. CaptYossarian Oct 2020 #4

Message auto-removed Name removed Oct 2020 #5

He's up 7.6 in the national average Johnny2X2X Oct 2020 #7

I feel my stress levels going down slightly. SharonClark Oct 2020 #6

We are winning! Johnny2X2X Oct 2020 #8

Le Roi de Pot

(744 posts)

1. This will be only time when Teens for Trump will not bring a smile to his face

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Original post)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 08:58 AM

Oct 2020

Klaralven

(7,510 posts)

2. Chance of "The election hinges on a recount" is down to 5 in a 100

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Original post)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 08:58 AM

Oct 2020

Statistical

(19,264 posts)

3. Also worth noting is those are hedged based on the remaining days till election

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Original post)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 09:05 AM

Oct 2020

538 says if the election was held today Trump's chances are only 9%. So each day Trump doesn't close the gap his chances will fall. Trump's biggest chance to shakeup the race was at the debate and he utterly blew that.

CaptYossarian

(6,448 posts)

4. As a golfer, this makes him smile.

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Original post)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 09:17 AM

Oct 2020

"The lowest score wins."

Hell, it worked last time.

Response to Johnny2X2X (Original post)

Name removed Message auto-removed

Johnny2X2X

(24,207 posts)

7. He's up 7.6 in the national average

Reply to Name removed (Reply #5)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 09:27 AM

Oct 2020

Was up 6.6 10 days ago. USC/dornslife is one data point, and it's about an average graded poll at B/C. Has Biden +8, so does YouGov which is higher rated, and so does Rasmussen which is a Trump run poll basically. Ipsos has Biden +9.

Biden is winning and things have started to widen the last 10 days and should continue to do so the next several.

SharonClark

(10,497 posts)

6. I feel my stress levels going down slightly.

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Original post)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 09:18 AM

Oct 2020

Johnny2X2X

(24,207 posts)

8. We are winning!

Reply to SharonClark (Reply #6)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 09:33 AM

Oct 2020

The work is far from down, 4-2/3s weeks left, it will be a sprint and I expect the polls to widen, but then tighten some.

It will be a lot of stress!

But know this, Biden's lead has been historically steady, the race hasn't changed in 4 months and won't change a ton in the next 4 weeks.

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