Holy Crap : Iowa Senate Polling: Greenfield (D): 51% Ernst (R): 39%

[sunonmars]

I mean, this is far too good to be true...can it? Either that or the dam is breaking wide open

Iowa Senate Polling:

Greenfield (D): 51%
Ernst (R): 39%

Nexstar/RABA Research / September 26, 2020 / n=780 / MOE 4% / Telephone

Link to tweet

https://who13.com/news/theresa-greenfield-leads-joni-ernst-by-12-points-in-new-poll-of-iowa-voters/

[helpisontheway]

1. Hope all of the Greenfield supporters vote for Biden. Nt

[OnDoutside]

5. Is there a chance they wouldn't ?

[helpisontheway]

9. Some people split ticket. Even in polling sometimes you see a difference between

where Biden polls lower than the senator. I know Arizona polling always has Kelly with a much larger lead than Biden. I think it was the same for North Carolina (think it was NC)?

[gohuskies]

2. Buh-bye Joni Breadbags

Enjoy retirement Joni

[SharonClark]

3. Crap is the right description.

The Iowa Poll had them tied just a week ago. This poll is an outlier.

[honest.abe]

4. Wow. What happened that might have caused this?

Hard to believe such a huge change so quickly.

[MoonlitKnight]

6. Insert dam breaking gif here

I want more.

Let’s take Alaska, Montana and freaking Mississippi too!

[sunonmars]

8. Nate Silver earlier said in the last month there is usually a break away from incumbents

So if the incumbent with problems is lagging behind in the last month, it usually gets worse....

[rsdsharp]

7. I wish this were true, but this is an outlier.

Most polls show Greenfield up 2-3 points.

[Demsrule86]

16. Maybe not.

[Renew Deal]

10. Doubt it, but one can hope.

I think there was a debate in the last week or so.

[mindfulNJ]

11. YEAH

[BannonsLiver]

12. My God. The bottom is falling out.

[progree]

13. 538 still projects Joni Ernst (ughh) as having a 51% probability of winning

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/iowa/

It includes this poll in what factors into their

On Sept 17, Ernst was given 59% probability of winning, so it has narrowed a lot.

[Takket]

28. 538 also posted 8 polls. Greenfield leads in 7 of them

other factors are clearly weighing into their models still calling for ernst but i have to believe of the polls keep rolling in that Greenfield will be project to win at some point.

only GOTV matters though

[progree]

30. I don't understand 538 on this one either. I contributed to Greenfield so I'm hoping

Last edited Thu Oct 1, 2020, 10:36 PM - Edit history (1)

that this isn't another one where it went down the drain like most of my contributions do.

[Viviko]

14. Ernst is a Trumper

And Trumpers fucked.

[Sogo]

15. Stunning!!

If this holds, we'll turn Iowa blue!!!!

Yay!!

[triron]

21. There could have been some significant movement then.

[WA-03 Democrat]

17. Polling watching song

[Laelth]

18. That seems unlikely to me. n/t

-Laelth

[BannonsLiver]

22. Could be an outlier

Could also signal movement toward Greenfield. Both could be true.

This isn’t the first poll to show Ernst behind. It’s just the first to show her getting blown out. There may be others soon. Or others that show Greenfield with a small bit not insignificant lead. We will find out in the coming days and weeks.

Like you I’m skeptical but it wouldn’t surprise me if Greenfield was ahead by 5-6.

[qazplm135]

19. Need more confirmation

Polls

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

20. While it seems to me this may well be an outlier,

it's possible that seeing Trump's behavior in the debate is making some noticeable percentage of people who would otherwise reliably vote Republican change their minds.

[Chasing Dreams]

31. This was September 23 -26

And as you say probably an outlier. But I still love it!

[Inablueway]

23. Seriously?

As much as I would love this to be true there is no question that this is a bullshit poll. We’re talking Iowa.

[Demsrule86]

29. Welcome to DU and Biden is up in Iowa and Obama won Iowa.

[beachbumbob]

24. Ernst vote on Barrett could effect this as well, depends on how

the hearing goes. If some legit issues raised on her affiliations to pretty much a cult with in the Church,

[ProfessorGAC]

25. 10% Null?

Include the MOE and this feels like a dead heat.
Easily figures to 50:50, or even 49:51.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

26. Iowa Republicans should have known that given pigs the right to vote would backfire on them.

Oh well.

[Takket]

27. this little piggie went wee wee wee wee allllllll the way home

[BlueWavePsych]

32. Wow! Nice! We'll take it.