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Thu Oct 1, 2020, 07:39 PM

538 spreading the doomsday crisis scenario of the election

https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/how-trump-could-spark-a-full-blown-election-crisis/


Absolutely ridiculous. All of it is based on the idea that votes will not be counted by election day. But most swing states will actually report the mail ballots and in-person early vote count first (OH, FL, NC, AZ and TX), as those will be the first votes counted. Also, if the state legislators try to appoint their own electors, the Democratic AG can simply arrest them for actually breaking the law. This is so irresponsible of the media.

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Response to jorgevlorgan (Original post)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 08:18 PM

1. I agree with 538. The threat is real.

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Response to Doodley (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 08:22 PM

2. The threat is overstated.

The fact he fails to mention how most swing states will report mail ballots first -in fact he made a false statement by saying most swing states will take days to identify who the winner is. Mi, Wi, and PA are three swing states, not most. And the reality is far more likely to be the opposite than what was said: Biden is likely to have a wide margin of votes int he first counts, and it will narrow as the other votes are counted. If it is down to one state it could be an issue (as it almost always is), but to assume the gop even has this much power is absurd.

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Response to jorgevlorgan (Reply #2)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 08:29 PM

3. The three states you mention are the three states that Biden probably needs to win back.

Trump will announce on election day that he has won. Millions of his supporters, if not tens of millions will agree. I would bet you that Fox News/R/W media would agree too, regardless of the facts.

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Response to Doodley (Reply #3)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 08:33 PM

5. Biden losing every other state on election day could give legitimacy to Trump declaring victory

But right now, it doesn't appear likely that will happen. Biden winning Ohio or Florida, GA or NC and AZ also will put the election in the bag for Biden. Losing all of those states would be a very bad situation to be in -and we will know if he did on election night.

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Response to jorgevlorgan (Reply #2)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 09:21 PM

15. What is overstated is the fact..

 

People think the R snd Trump is going to just take this like a stroll in the park.. Look what they are doing in Harris County? I believe this is going to be the norm. Add the Fact that Trump has several of his people in key areas of the election is alot of the states, and he is going to contest to his people, it's going to be a wild ride.

I am hoping for the best, but I am also preparing myself for a long fight. I haven't worked up the courage to prepare for the worst yet.

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Response to DemsIn2020 (Reply #15)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 09:39 PM

16. Oh he may surely try to steal it with the courts or some other questionablly

Legal manner. But what is also overstated is his ability to do it. More power is given to him with us thinking he could do it in the first place -despite the blatant illegality of most of it.

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Response to jorgevlorgan (Original post)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 08:29 PM

4. An asteroid could hit the Earth and create a new Gulf of Mexico, too.

Not likely, but it could happen.

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Response to Stinky The Clown (Reply #4)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 08:34 PM

6. Exactly

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Response to jorgevlorgan (Original post)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 08:35 PM

7. Doomsday scenarios are useful. Unlikely, but seminal for develioping plans just in case.

I'm confident the Biden campaign has several contigency plans dealing with all Blue Shift scenarios.
Meanwhile ... GOTV!

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Response to BlueWavePsych (Reply #7)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 08:38 PM

8. I just wish all the facts were at least included in this scenario -legality, which party is in power

Etc. It is just not close to as clear cut as these guys are laying it out to be.

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Response to jorgevlorgan (Reply #8)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 08:39 PM

9. Exactly!

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Response to jorgevlorgan (Original post)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 08:44 PM

10. But Wisconsin and Pennsylvania

donít begin even processing mail-in ballots until Election Day. In cities like Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia that could take some time. And those are considered the two important swing states.

https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx

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Response to frazzled (Reply #10)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 08:48 PM

11. They are not the only swing states.

And the reality is they won't be the first reporting. We will likely see 90% of the results in 47 states, with some ballots counted in the remaining three. If Biden is actually still behind at that point, there is a good chance he did not win. Vice versa, if he wins most of the states of AZ, FL, GA, NC,IA,, TX, and OH, we will also know on election night, and be able to call Biden the winner of the election. At this point, it is not likely this election will depend on 1-3 states. If it is, that will be very, very bad for Joe Biden.

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Response to jorgevlorgan (Original post)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 08:48 PM

12. Agree with you to a point

 

When I first heard about it I was more concerned. Then found out the States that count early and was less concerned. But (and it is a tRump sized BUTT) it still allows for some tRump bullshit. It is very likely Florida will be too close to call. A responsible media would report that election night voting historically overstates the repuke lead. If NC and NC flip they accurate reporting would also point out that those were flipped States. If the numbers in TX are also close a responsible media would also report that tRump won in 2016 by x% and that was cut down to x.

So we are counting on tRump not to be an asshole (bad bet) and the media to be responsible. (only slightly better)

HRC was down by about 1 million election night, hell Obama was down to Romney on election night. (total count) Let's assume Joe performs similar to Obama in 2012. Do you expect the media to control the narrative or react to tRump. It is quite likely that with increased mail in ballots that Biden will be even further behind in total vote counts. Also do you think repukes will be consistent and stick to EV or when it benefits them will they focus on total votes at a point in time? We all know that answer.

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Response to rufus dog (Reply #12)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 09:06 PM

13. I think the only states that will have delayed counts of mail ballots are mi wi and pa

If Biden does as well -or better than either of Obamas elections, it will be known on election day because mail ballots will be 95% counted in most states already, and the media will likely call it. There won't be much wiggle room anywhere to say otherwise.

I think the map could potentially look like this in terms of states called (ignore the shades please)

https://www.270towin.com/maps/2nlkd

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Response to rufus dog (Reply #12)

Thu Oct 1, 2020, 09:17 PM

14. Also if texas is super close, it might take as long for us to know who won it

As it would for us to know who won mi, wi and pa

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