Does Trump's Covid diagnosis put a wrecking ball in the Biden campaign?

[Doodley]

Things that worry me:

1/ How will it look to be attacking Trump, if he is sick? The Biden campaign will be criticized for it. But meanwhile, Team Trump can keep on attacking Biden.

2/ The same goes for the media. Are they going to go easy on Trump?

3/ Look at what happened to UK's Boris Johnson. His approval SKYROCKETED after he was infected - from 46% to 66% (see the YouGov link below). If Trump got half that, he would win the election.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/boris-johnson-approval-rating

4/ If Trump is hospitalized and cannot campaign, the right will never accept the result and say Biden won because Trump was incapacitated.

[stopbush]

1. You worry too much...and about the wrong things.

[Doodley]

21. I've been worrying ever since Trump came down that escalator and made the

dumbest and most racist candidacy announcement I'd ever seen. Most of those worries have happened.

[Skittles]

2. Joe doesn't have to attack Trump

he just needs to point out facts - like how fucked America is right now, and how we need CHANGE

[msongs]

3. joe can just shift to issues and programs and lay off the personality things nt

[Thekaspervote]

13. This! And that's exactly what Biden being the consummate statesman will do

I’m sure he will issue a statement saying he and Jill are hoping he has a full and speedy recovery

[Doodley]

22. Yes, you are right. He should sell his vision for America.

[thesquanderer]

62. Most of the anti-Trump stuff has been coming from folks like Lincoln Project anyway.

I think Biden's campaign/advertising has *already* been much more Biden-positive than Trump-negative.

[texasfiddler]

4. You worry too much

[Doodley]

23. I've been worrying ever since Trump came down that escalator.

[Big Blue Marble]

5. My first and main concern is that Biden has been exposed to this dangerous virus.

Let us be assured that he is safe before we worry about other issues.

[BamaRefugee]

9. THIS

[LovingA2andMI]

11. After BEING YELLED AT

By this POS MFer for an ONE and ONE HALF!!!!

[Crunchy Frog]

46. I bet he already knew, or suspected. Asshole.

[BlueStater]

6. His approval ratings aren't going to skyrocket.

Over half this country fucking hates him. Not dislikes. HATES. There’s nothing he could do to change that.

[Doodley]

25. Haven't you noticed how dumb many of your fellow countrymen are. But I agree

he won't skyrocket, but approval of say 48% is dangerous.

[MaryMagdaline]

7. Not even close. Trump actively spread this disease and he's

A cautionary tale ... can’t protect himself and family, can’t protect us. Boris Johnson got sick early on before he had months and months of denial and it was early in his administration, before he had alienated absolutely everyone. On top of which he turned his whole illness into a god bless the national health institute. In contrast? Trump has already blamed police and military.

[Doodley]

31. Don't you remember how badly Britain was doing before BJ got sick? They had no CV plan.

They were slow to test, slow to contact trace, slow to restrict travel. Other nations assumed they were going down the herd immunity route.

[regnaD kciN]

55. They were incompetent, but not actively destructive...

BoJo the Clown wasn't urging people to go maskless, ignore social distancing, and insist on "re-opening" within a few weeks of the first cases. I would think that would make a huge difference. Sure, I think we'll see a momentary spike in sympathy for Trump, but I doubt it will have any effect on his popularity once it becomes clear that he's going to survive.

[Lucinda]

8. Trump is responsible for 10's of 1000's of deaths

when he knew better. There is no argument for that fact. If he gets sick it will be by his own inaction.

[Doodley]

26. Obviously I agree. I've said the same a thousand times, but Americans re-elected

W. Bush and they (arguably) elected Trump. I don't have the same faith they won't fuck us up.

[Lucinda]

27. That is where we differ...It shouldnt have been close enough to steal, but I dont think this country

elected Trump.

I get your point though. But a lot of those Covid deaths have touched GOP families - they wont forgive him knowing and doing nothing.

[Doodley]

28. I agree with you. Also the anger that many feel about Trump may be neutered

by Trump testing positive. That isn't good for GOTV.

[Thekaspervote]

10. Biden will be the perfect statesman. The media always goes easy on him

Even if his approval goes up, the question is, do you really think that Biden voters will be swayed? I don’t

If he’s hospitalized then the right will have to decide if they are going to have pence run. It won’t stop the election

[Doodley]

29. No. I don't think Biden voters are going to suddenly switch to Trump, but some may

feel satisfaction that Trump has got what he deserves through getting infected, rather than getting a good kicking in the election. That doesn't help GOTV.

[JI7]

12. HE doesn't have to attack Trump. Biden has his own plans on how to do things that he will discuss

[Doodley]

30. Agreed. Thank you.

[BannonsLiver]

14. My thoughts

1: He can still run positive ads/messaging about his vision for the country.

2: Maybe.

3: BoJo and Trump aren’t apples to apples, no matter how much Americans may think they are.

4: Who gives a shit.

[Doodley]

36. 1. Yes. 3. Trump needs a 4% boost and reduce Dem turnout by being sick and he could win.

[BannonsLiver]

57. Or not.

[Renew Deal]

15. Biden doesn't need to attack.

Hopefully they negotiate a cease fire.

[Doodley]

38. You think Trump would halt his campaign of lies against Biden?

[regnaD kciN]

56. It depends on what the Trump campaign does...

Obviously, Trump himself is going to be out of circulation until late October at the best, and Pence is likely out for the next two weeks even if he doesn't come down with it himself. (And, frankly, I would guess Biden will be self-isolating until early next week as a precaution.) So the question is, does the Trump campaign rely entirely on surrogates and ads? If so, I would guess Biden would do the same, maybe making a few video appearances and spreading a positive message. (Obviously, Biden now doesn't need to be flying about the country making campaign appearances himself.) If, for some reason, there comes a point where Trump declares himself "cured" and starts with the MAGA rallies again, we're free to respond in kind.

[BootinUp]

16. They gotta stay on offense. nt

[Doodley]

39. I agree. Full throttle to the finishing line. Never blinking.

[JI7]

17. Boris Johnson actually WON his election and was more liked than his opponent

Johnson was never to the UK what Trump is to the US . Johnson is more comparable to maybe GWB although Johnson isn't an idiot .

Johnson came down with the Virus early on and he did not deny it afterwards .

The comparison is just stupid and ignores many existing things which makes the comparison weak.

[Doodley]

40. With just 4 point boost and reducing Dem turnout by being sick, Trump could win.

[Awsi Dooger]

18. Biden can switch tactics somewhat

Run ads focusing on coronavirus and the importance of wearing a mask. Include clips and text of Biden's early statements on the matter

Run ads that are totally pro-Biden and don't mention Trump. I assume many of those are available

[Doodley]

41. Agreed and the voters will see the difference with Trump.

[BootinUp]

19. Attack that stupid dumbfuck for dereliction.

[Doodley]

35. Yes, even if he won't protect Americans, he hasn't done a good job protecting himself.

[chriscan64]

20. Joe will say and do the right thing.

That's who he is. Trump will get sympathy that will not translate into votes. Americans understand already that he did this to himself, just like he did with his finances and taxes. If an employee steals from the register because of a gambling addiction, you may feel sympathy but you sure as hell don't put them back on the register on the next shift.

[Doodley]

34. I hope you are right, but too many Americans are not rational. Was it rational for

W. Bush to get 90% approval after 9/11? Is it rational that Trump is still at around 43-44%?

[Rice4VP]

24. He doesn't have to attack him

he can just talk about his plans. Boris Johnson tested positive a month in, not 7 months and 208,000 people hadn’t died

[Doodley]

33. Trump is at 43-44% approval. If this gives him just 4-5%. we are fucked.

[radius777]

42. Not really. He got an approval bump when the pandemic took off in March

but that never affected his re-elect polling numbers.

And that situation was one where most voters didn't really blame him at the time for the pandemic.

But since then he's spent his time downplaying the virus and insinuating it is a hoax, mocking mask wearing, condeming the shutdowns and calling for states to be 'liberated' etc.

Trump getting the covid is the ultimate refutation of his stance on this, and ultimate vindication of Biden's stance.

[Doodley]

45. But Trump being sick could suppress Dem turnout. Some people will feel some satisfaction

that would otherwise have been felt by voting him out of office.

[radius777]

32. Trump made his own bed

and now has to lie in it. And that would be bad enough but he also made the bed for 200k people who would've been alive had he not tried to pretend the virus away in order to prop up the stock market for his rich friends.

At first there may be a 'sympathy bump' in his approvals, but this situation more than anything vindicates Biden's message of mask wearing and adherence to scientific guidelines which Trump mocked - and this will result in more votes for Biden.

The Boris Johnson situation is different as he actually was contrite, thanked the front-line workers etc. He also iirc won his race convincingly and it was early in his term. In contrast we are less than 30 days before an election and everyone is 'dug in'.

As to what the MAGAts will accept? Who cares - they won't accept anything short of Trump being installed as dictator for life. Trump alone is to blame for his situation we just hope he didn't also infect Joe.

[Doodley]

47. I absolutely agree with you. But elections are usually won at the margins.

If Dem turnout is suppressed by a few points and Trump gets just a small bump of a few points, it could be bad news.

[radius777]

49. Doubt it. This isn't just about Trump himself

but about his administration, about McConnell and the Senate, about what the GOP has become. RBG's death and the GOP's ramming through of a young rightwing justice will tilt the court 6-3 for a generation. If Trump (or Pence) is reelected they could possibly appoint two more justices (Breyer and Thomas are old) thus tilting the court 8-1.

Trump played himself. He tried to pretend the virus wasn't real but the virus didn't agree. Voters will turn out even more to vote for science and reality (and health and safety) that is represented by Biden/Harris ticket.

[BGBD]

37. The news I'm watching right now..

is not going easy on him. They are pointing out off the ways he downplayed it this whole time. They are talking about masks. They are pointing out that Trump knew Hicks had COVID this morning and still attended a fundraiser even though he knew he was exposed.

[Doodley]

43. Good. Thanks for the information. I hope it stays that way.

[Crunchy Frog]

44. I didn't know that about Boris. Fuck.

[muriel_volestrangler]

48. Don't read too much into Johnson's approval rating

That was also the start of the response, when people were optimistic that actions would bring it under control. In particular, the furlough scheme (employees who stop working would have 80% of their salary paid by the government, up to £25k) was well-liked as a financial response.

[obamanut2012]

59. My Brit friends said he also was very complimentary about the NHS

And his caregivers, when he is usually snarky about the NHS and its staff, and that also played very well.

[LAS14]

50. I wouldn't be surprised if the Biden campaign had a plan for this contingency. nt

[octoberlib]

51. Joe can certainly attack Trump's policies

without attacking his person. I’m not convinced his approval rating will rise because of COVID. Boris Johnson is bad but nowhere near as despicable as Trump . And your assertion that Trump’s illness will affect Dem turnout is bullshit.

[obamanut2012]

60. My friends in England say Boris is seen more like how W was here

And, as bad as W was, he played much better than Trump.

[mnmoderatedem]

52. No

Boris Johnson was very conciliatory and rather humble in the wake of his illness, and came off very sincere in urging people to take it seriously. trump is incapable of such behavior. Admit he was wrong in mocking Biden wearing a mask? He'd rather lose the presidency than admit he's wrong about something.


and trump has repeatedly downplayed the situation and keeps insisting we've "turned a corner". Optics do not look good for him.

[Sunsky]

53. Just no

I see no good in this for Trump. He was reckless and irresponsible and this is the outcome. He has put many people's lives in danger and Biden should point this out. The election has already begun.

The clown knew Hope Hicks was positive, yet still went to a campaign event. Come on people. We can wish him well and still point out his inadequacies.

The picture here is totally different here than in the UK. We have over 200,000 people dead and this man was joking about Biden's mask, at the same time he was possibly infected.

The Cleveland Clinic asked his entourage to wear masks at the debate and they refused. They are super spreaders (period). Now the Conman is blaming the military and people coming close to them. If they had followed the CDC guidelines, they and the people around them would've been wearing masks and social distancing, etc.

[budkin]

54. This is an utter disaster for Trump

There’s simply no way to spin it in his favor.

[Demsrule86]

58. NO, and who cares what the right says? A win is a win.

[Azathoth]

61. Not comparable situations. Trump has acrued TONS of bad will and this is seen as just deserts

Boris was always seen a bumbling and uninformed but affable rightwing populist. Once he got sick, there was a traditional rally-around-the-flag effect. Even Brits who opposed him didn't actually wish him ill.

Trump has spent 8 months maliciously lying about and downplaying this virus. He has relentlessly made things worse in every conceivable way, and he has put everyone else at risk. And he has *never* hesitated to hit other people when they were down, including attacking widows who hadn't even buried their dead husbands yet.

Honestly, even though they won't admit it, about 60% of the country is silently cheering today. The playground bully finally punched himself in the face.

If anything, Biden's numbers will see a bump.

[lame54]

63. Biden just needs to talk about what he'll bring...

And not get constantly interrupted