TX-22: Distaste for President Trump Confronts a Long Conservative Legacy in the H

[RandySF]

Texas’s Twenty-second Congressional District, like many in the state, began its life as a Democratic stronghold. Houston Democrat Bob Casey was the first representative elected to the seat back in 1958. After winning reelection nine times, he resigned in the mid-seventies to become a member of the Federal Maritime Commission, and the seat was captured in a special election by an eccentric 41-year-old libertarian Republican named Ron Paul. He served one term, lost his reelection campaign, and then reclaimed the seat two years later—which he held until 1985 when he stepped down to run for the U.S. Senate and later (three times) for the White House. His successor was an equally colorful member of the Texas GOP: former exterminator and eventual U.S. House majority leader (and Dancing With the Stars contestant) Tom DeLay.

In 2005, DeLay was indicted on charges related to the Jack Abramoff campaign finance scandal. He nonetheless successfully navigated a GOP primary, but when one of his key aides pleaded guilty to related charges, he withdrew from the election, leaving the seat open for a Democrat win. By 2008, the seat was back in GOP hands, held by Pete Olson. From 2010 to 2016, Olson beat his Democratic challengers by margins ranging from 19 to 38 points. In 2018, however, his margin of victory was cut to five points, turning the district into a top target for Democrats.

A big blob covering much of Fort Bend County, holding hands with a smaller blob covering the area south of the Houston beltway. The district is relatively compact—you can get across it in just an hour when traffic is light—especially compared with some of the behemoth districts in Texas that stretch for hundreds of miles. Spanning Pearland, Missouri City, and Sugar Land, the district is one of the fastest-growing in the country: since 2000, Fort Bend County has more than doubled in population, bringing demographic changes that have transformed the Twenty-second politically.

Texas’s Twenty-second has become one of the most diverse districts in the country over the past ten years. According to U.S. Census data, Fort Bend County was 50 percent white in 2010. By 2019, that number had fallen to 31 percent, according to estimates from the bureau. Largely because of increasing diversity, Texas suburbs, generally, are trending bluer than they have for the past generation.

In 2018, Kulkarni ran well against a popular incumbent. There isn’t a great deal of polling on the district for this year, but the most recent nonpartisan poll, conducted in late July and early August, has the race at a dead heat, with each candidate at 39 percent and a wide swath of undecided voters left to persuade. Given Kulkarni’s funding advantage, and the outsized impact that advertising can play in closer local races compared with national campaigns, this is the sort of seat that Texas Democrats are set up to pick off in this campaign cycle.

This race is a true toss-up—the kind where a district’s overall history butts up against its changing demographics, its usual partisan tilt leans into political headwinds, and a candidate with high name ID (if not quite incumbency) squares off with a qualified and well-funded challenger. If election night is good for Texas Democrats overall, it’s quite likely to be a good night for Kulkarni—but he’s also one of a handful of Democrats in the state who could win a seat even if the larger statewide trends don’t include any major surprises.



https://www.texasmonthly.com/politics/troy-nehls-sri-kulkarni-race/

[Gothmog]

1. Sri is running a great campaign

[RandySF]

2. Other than 22, where do we have a realistic shot?

[Gothmog]

3. There are 7 total seat in red to blue program

Last edited Mon Oct 5, 2020, 12:24 AM - Edit history (1)

Ortiz Jones has raised the most money. We could pick up six or seven seats