Younger DUers...

[BlueSpot]

Take note of all that is going on. Try to remember the feeling of it. One day you'll be trying to explain it to the class of 2060.

[Cirque du So-What]

1. I wish I'd paid closer attention during Watergate and Nixon's downfall

In my defense, it’s hard to keep up with current events while cruising under the sea on ballistic missile deterrent patrol - or striving for Roman orgy-level debauchery when in port. Today, I don’t have any tales worth sharing. Yes, it happened during a time when I was alive, but I was always either cloistered or too self-absorbed to appreciate the importance of the moment.

[Laffy Kat]

2. I keep telling my adult children to keep a daily journal so they can refer back to it...

In twenty years. They are living through a historic period just like the survivors of the flu pandemic in 1918-19. As usual, they don't listen to me.

[flotsam]

16. Hey Dad-I just read your journal for 2020...

...I guess you did a lot of drugs that year, huh?

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

3. I was living in the DC area during Watergate,

working at DCA as a ticket agent.

The final few days before Nixon resigned were surreal. The night he gave his resignation speech the airport essentially shut down entirely. Planes did not pull away from the gates because the pilots, flight attendants, and passengers all wanted to see what he said. The main terminal, where I worked was as dead as if it were 3am.

I wonder what the mood in DC is like now.

[BlueSpot]

4. These are the kind of stories I'm talking about

I was a very young teenager during Watergate. I watched but didn't really get it. I remember wanting a Spiro Agnew watch but but was too young to work so didn't have the money to buy one.

I've read the books and seen the movies about Watergate but my memories were limited. So many of the (older than me) DUers brought in their memories of the events to compare to Trump's impeachment. It was helpful to me. But the new grads couldn't have had a clue. I'm thinking (hoping?) this is a time unique in our history. People need to be ready to remember it for those who haven't even been born yet.

[A HERETIC I AM]

5. I joined this website in August of 2003.....

And I'm still trying to come to grips with how the fuck we ever let GWB happen!!

FOR 8 FUCKING YEARS!!

[Polybius]

9. Is there any way to link to DU the night before the election in 2004?

What was the mood like? Did everyone think Kerry would win, or did some say Bush would be re-elected? I would love to see an archive of those posts.

[A HERETIC I AM]

10. I can't find any links back to those days.

I'm sure they're somewhere, but I can't find them.

[Polybius]

15. Do you remember the mood on DU the night before the election in 2004?

I know we are very positive here, so I'd guess they thought Bush was going to lose.

[A HERETIC I AM]

18. I can't recall specifically, but it seems to me....

that we, as members of a community anyway, had succumbed to the idea Bush would win.

He had the giant push 9/11 had given him, and by the time that election season had rolled around, Greenspan had started the ball rolling that would eventually cause the collapse of 2008, but that was all good in '04!

I know many folks knew the dirty tricks that were going on, but I really don't think too many were surprised GW won the election.

I could be remembering it wrong, but that's how I recall those day, anyway.

[Awsi Dooger]

25. There was confidence that Kerry would win

A math guy named TruthIsAll had bombarded the site for months with fancy formulas asserting Kerry at 99.99% likelihood to win. He based it on unskewing the polls and also assigning an absurd percentage of the undecideds to Kerry as challenger.

That 99.99% avalanche brainwashed the site in general. Too many posters believed there had to be plenty of legitimacy, if someone with fancy mathematical degrees was so insistent. There were many more active major political forums on this site in those days. TruthIsAll hammered every one of them. You couldn't escape his latest thread because he'd post it 6 or 8 different places. Then he got furious at myself and a few others for following him around to all the forums, pointing out his latest mistake in every one of them.

Everybody sensed it would be close. Kerry basically had to win either Florida or Ohio. There was lots of debate toward which one was more likely. Of course, there was already cynicism toward Florida based on 2000, and new concerns about Ohio due to Ken Blackwell and all the obvious suppression going on there.

I had a mathematical model myself. I actually spent more time tinkering with it in 2004 than any other cycle. It was heavily weighted to situational advantage toward Bush as incumbent whose party had been in power only one term, but did give Kerry a chance based on that undecideds aspect. All my wagering friends in Las Vegas chastised me for it because when they took a look at it they said it blatantly screamed that Bush was likely to win, but I had tinkered with some categories to pretend Kerry had more chance than he actually did. I concede they were correct. However, it was largely due to some variables that I did not understand at the time. For example, in 2004 I did not understand that Hispanics tilt unusually to a presidential incumbent. That's why my model was overly friendly to Kerry's chances in Florida. After the fact, once I shifted Bush's Hispanic vote share to what he actually received, my model had nailed Florida almost to a few hundredths of a percent.

The air of confidence on this site is what led to the widespread acceptance and glee toward the early exit polls. My reaction was exactly the opposite. As soon as I saw them I knew Kerry had lost. I was absolutely numbed. There was one preposterous margin after another, in state after state. Obviously way too high. Numbers that didn't make sense based on ideology or anything else. Then when I checked the pivotal states Ohio and Florida, Kerry had only a small edge. Since every state was many points too friendly to Kerry, once the real numbers started coming in, the real-world shift in Florida and Ohio was going to take it across from one victor to another.

Consequently I gave up, turned everything off, and went to sleep knowing Kerry had lost, while everyone here was still celebrating a certain win.

I remember one low-key but smart poster named Dolstein who never got caught up in the 99.99% hype. He matter of factly posted all year that he didn't think Kerry was special enough to defeat an incumbent.

[Celerity]

27. I googled this poster, he was banned from Kos 14 years ago

https://www.dailykos.com/user/TruthIsAll



https://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x449317

[Polybius]

28. Wow, thank you very much for the informative response!

That was a ton of info, how do I even respond to that?

Anyway, I always love to hear prediction formulas not entirely based on polls. The most famous one in the country is Professor Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted every election for decades. I am also a guy who hates over-confidence, so I'm interested to hear your prediction. I think Biden wins by 6 points, but I admittingly have no special formula.

TruthIsAll seems like an interesting character. What happened to him? I had been a lurker here for like a dozen years before I decided to post. I specifically remember three posters from that time, Spooked911, his nemesis and frenemy Zappaman, and Middle Finger Mom, who always made me laugh (he unfortunately passed away).

[Celerity]

26. its hard to find but here are a few

https://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2571801



https://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2571811



https://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2571813



https://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2571820



https://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2571829




https://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2571830




https://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2571838



https://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2571841



https://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2571988






https://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2571989



https://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2575557



https://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2575561



https://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2575563



https://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2574117

[Dyedinthewoolliberal]

17. same here (or somewhere around that time)

insanity that now seems nice and calm compared with today!

[A HERETIC I AM]

19. LOL...no shit!

The right used to love putting up these memes during the Obama years;



And of course, we didn't.


But now?

I'd take Bush's dog, for fucks sake!

[Renew Deal]

21. Repubican presidents keep getting worse

And it makes me wonder if a Tom Cotton can get elected in this country.

[A HERETIC I AM]

24. Ain't that the fucking truth!

Over my lifetime there has been a shitload more accomplished men on our side than on theirs. I was born when the last decent Republican President held office. The rest since then have been utter assholes, with the possible exception of GHW Bush. At least HE was a war hero.

[Jspur]

6. I'm 37 and have already lived through a lot of bs granted I know the older duers

have lived through more. It still pisses me off experiencing all the crazy shit I have experienced since I turned 17. I turned 17 in the summer of '00 and since then I have experienced several horrible historical events.

1. In the fall of '00 Bush win's the election off bs fraud. I still be he stole it and the Supreme Court helped him. It was the first time I saw a president win without the popular vote and unfortunately not the last time.

2. 9/11 happened when I was 18 and in my first month of college. I really felt like an alien when 9/11 happened when everybody was supporting Bush and I was part of the 8-10 percent that didn't approve of him. I spoke out against him college and people looked at me like a crazy person. Today I have bragging rights among friends.

3. Bush and the rest of the country being stupid and agreeing to star the War against Iraq in '03.

4. '08 Financial Crisis was something I never thought was possible but it happened.

5. Obama becoming the first black president in '09. The only good historical event I have experienced. I was at his inauguration.

6. Trump winning the election without the popular vote and it felt just as bad as Bush winning '00

7. This awful pandemic being managed terribly by Trump and these corrupt republicans not doing anything to make it better.

All the events I listed were all crappy outside of Obama winning the presidency. As one of the older millennials I'm just tired of this bs. If you look at all the event's I have listed besides Obama the republicans had their fingerprints all over them. I really miss the 90's not because it was my childhood but it seems like it was the last decade where there was no crazy out of this world horrible events happening

Sure the 90's weren't perfect and we still had our racial,social, economic problems but man things were not as tumultuous as they have been the last 20 years.

When I talked to younger people today who are teenagers and young adults I feel like an old person. I feel old especially when I tell them what this country was like before 2000. I have to remind myself that I'm still not even middle aged yet.

[Piasladic]

7. I teach college classes to kids born in 2000.

I hope they remember, and I try to pass along what I can though it seems never enough.

[Jamaal510]

11. As someone born in 1990

and came of age watching Bush Jr and then 45, I envy people who grew up watching what a sane and non-corrupt GOP looked like.

[uriel1972]

13. hehe I was born in '72 I'm not sure such a creature

existed.

[Skittles]

14. I am way older than you

I do not remember a time when the Greed Over People party was not corrupt. Fact.

[uriel1972]

12. I remember 9/11 it took me a while to work out

what happened as I was working flat-out at the time and all I hot were garbled stories and soundbites. Then there were MIHOPpers and LIHOPpers, drones and holographic planes, not to mention the armchair engineers.

Then there were people like me who believed that it was incompetence and a 747. However I can be a boring person I suppose.

Then things got weird with Iraq.

[Renew Deal]

20. It will be a lot sooner than that.

This will be ancient history to the class of 2038.

[yonder]

22. You know the crescendo in the Beatles' "Day in the Life"?

That's how I remember the lead-up to Nixon's resignation. There was so much happening in the news and it just kept snowballing, faster and faster, with more and more voices calling for him to give it up. Then finally, just like that stunning, resolving chord in the song — it was over. Nixon quit and that final chord just reverberated while slowly losing strength until it matched the background noise of the news of the day, the transitioning to the Ford administration, the pardon, etc.

At least that's how my 20 year old, somewhat substance-addled self remembered it.

Now today, pushing 70, I get glimpses of that with today's situation but it always falls back to an earlier point in the crescendo. So far, the outcry of voices from all over the spectrum have failed to match what I remember and that climax has not materialized. Yet.

[BGBD]

23. It's cute that you guys think there's gonna be a 2060.