***National Poll of LVs*** Biden 51 Trump 38

[Johnny2X2X]

https://www.brandwatch.com/email/us-election-bulletin-006/

This was a 4 way poll. Not a rated pollster on 538, but this was a good sample with a low margin of error. Not all the polls get rated by 538, some of those not rated are garbage, some are just as legit as highly rated polls. Take them with a grain of salt. But there are some polls that Silver won't even include in their average at all, this one makes the grade in that respect.

The reason I am posting this one is because of what they said about undecideds, and that they're seeing the undecided favor Bien 2-1 if they had to pick.

This drove the Composite up to Biden +9.4

[yellowcanine]

1. Right in line with other polls coming out yesterday and today so it is a keeper imo,

Looks like Biden lead is into low double digits on average. That is in line for a 400+ EV margin.

[Johnny2X2X]

2. That's what I see too

9.4 is still weighed down by a ton of older polls, the polls the last few days probably average +12 or so.

And the Forecast is at 83-17, but that will change this Friday or Saturday. This tool is built to weight polls higher as we get closer, it does so incrementally in steps every landmark day, the next time this is adjusted is what we go inside 25 days out. So the other factors being uncertainty to it are waning. On election day, Nate's forecast is 100% weighted on his poll averages. So that 83-17 could be 88-12 on Saturday, not sure how much it will jump, but it will be noticeable.

[lagomorph777]

6. +12 to +16 points lately. Biden widens.

Yup - Turd is getting flushed.

[PTWB]

3. I'm a lot happier with these early polls than I normally would be.

SO MANY people are already voting. In a traditional election year the polls would matter much less and surprises closer to Election Day would be more impactful. This year though early polls should have a lot more weight.

[Johnny2X2X]

4. Agreed

But they aren't really even "early" polls anymore, we're 27 days to election day. I believe the Composite goes to at least +10.0 by this weekend when there will be just over 3 weeks left. I don't think the polls are capable of moving the 6 or 7 points Trump would need to have a chance in just 3 weeks without a truly remarkable black swan event.

Biden led by at least 7 point for months, Trump was running out of time to make a dent in it as it was, then the debate and Covid sent Biden's lead to 10+, If everything goes great for Trump from here on out he'll be lucky to get it back to Biden +7.

[Jamesyu]

5. Even a +7 for Trump is bad

He needs to get the race to a 2-5 point to have an advantage in the EC. If Biden is still around 9 point on election day, than this race is going to a Reagan type landslide.