Biden is as likely to win Mississippi as Trump is to win Pennsylvania

[Dr. Jack]

I was doing some digging around at 538 because I don't feel like actually working right now, and I found some interesting odds in various states that I think really puts the state of the election into prospective.

As I said in the title, 538 has the odds in Pennsylvania, the total must win state for Trump, at Biden 86% to Trump's 14%. Mississippi is at Trump 87% and Biden at 13%. So right now Biden is as likely to win Mississippi as Trump is to win Pennsylvania.

Let's look at some other must win states or states Trump is targeting

Wisconsin: Biden 84% chance, about the same as Trump's odds of winning Missouri, where he is at 87%

Michigan: Biden 91%. Trump is as likely to win there as Biden is in Kansas

Minnesota: Biden 90% chance. Trump is as likely to win Minnestoa as Biden is to win Alaska

NE 2: Biden at 74% chance of winning. Trump is as likely to win NE 2 as Biden is to win Texas


Here are some more out there states that Trump and Republicans have talked about flipping

Oregon: Trump has a 3% chance there, same as Biden's odds in Alabama

Nevada: Trump has a 14% chance, similar to Biden's odds of winning Montana

New York: Trump has a less than 1% chance of winning. It is more likelly that Biden would win Kentucky, South Dakota, or Arkansas than Trump winning New York

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

1. If Biden gets PA it doesn't matter if Spanky gets Mississippi.

[Dr. Jack]

2. I think we are going to trend towards the upper limit of Biden's projected electoral votes

I think polls, the way the methodology was chanced in 2016 to weigh heavier towards Trump voter demographics, is significantly over estimating Trump. We are seeing tons of people who didn't vote in 2016, voting in key swing states early and by mail. That doesn't sound like Republicans to me but those voters also wouldn't count as "likely voters" in polls.

[dubyadiprecession]

3. Trump is stuck with states like Mississippi..

When he would really, really love to win a crown jewel state, like New York!

Sorry dumbass, maybe in the next lifetime!

[Doreen]

4. I am confused.

I keep hearing Biden is going to win the popular vote in many states. However, I have thought I understood that the electoral college people of each state can vote the way they want despite what their state wants. So if Biden gets the popular vote ( like Hillary ) it does not matter because it is up to the electoral college. Please explain to me what popular and electoral actually means.

[Dr. Jack]

5. Here you go

[Doreen]

7. So, since states can not be stolen it was

the foriegn interference that was able to mess with the electoral college in 2016?

[lagomorph777]

8. By flipping a few votes in selected states, Putin exploited our EC structure.

He didn't have to flip the Electors themselves; he flipped a few voting machines, and he flipped a few MAGAT brains with the help of his Facebook troll farms.

[Doreen]

10. Thank you.

Now I understand what happened better. I knew it was put but I did not know exactly how.

[Doreen]

9. Thank you.

I understand better.

[Aristus]

11. The reason faithless electors are so rare is because the slate of electors is appointed

by each respective party.

If, for example, the Democratic Party wins the popular vote of a state, the Democratic Party's electors cast the votes in the Electoral College.

[SheltieLover]

6. Ty, Dr. Jack!

[Awsi Dooger]

12. Not even close to true

I don't give a damn about polling. Mississippi has the highest percentage of self-identified conservatives in the country, at 50% range. Biden has no chance there.

Pennsylvania, on the other hand, is very close to the national ideological breakdown. The nation is 35% conservatives and 26% liberals. Pennsylvania is 33% conservatives and 27% liberals. Also, Pennsylvania has an extraordinary number of white working class voters who did not vote in 2016. I believe the number is 2.1 million. That's why Trump sees upside there as opposed to Wisconsin, which has 800,000 in that category.

Also, Mississippi is the least educated electorate in the country. It is completely reversed of the national average. Mississippi in 2016 was 43% of voters at high school or less, and 26% college graduates. The national average was 30% high school or less and 40% college graduates. Since Trump has strength with the white working class type, he has plenty to draw from in Mississippi.

Granted, many of the high school or less in Mississippi are blacks. But that is offset by the fact that whites in the state are so extraordinarily conservative. Once you reach 50% conservatives the other numbers don't matter a heck of a lot.

Polling can be misleading because every number looks the same. If Biden leads by let's say 8 points in Pennsylvania everyone assumes that is the same as a Trump lead of 8 points in Mississippi. But that is not close to true. Those variables I mentioned earlier allow Trump far greater opportunity to close the gap, or for the polling to simply be wrong. Easy movement. There is a pull toward balance based on the fundamental factors. Mississippi does not have any pull of that type. Just the opposite. It is a rejection. The ideological wall and the educational numbers do not allow free flow of let's say 8 points cutting to 4.

It is the same idiocy we have experienced in Kentucky by assuming tens of millions in the senate race will move those numbers toward McGrath. Sorry, the ideological wall, and educational realities, likewise repel any attempt.

[Turin_C3PO]

13. States can flip from red to blue

or blue to red. It’s happened many times in the past.