'Forgotten' Pennsylvania region holds key to Trump's fate

[JoeOtterbein]

Politico

In a critical swing state, one little-known county plays an outsized role.

By HOLLY OTTERBEIN

10/10/2020 07:00 AM EDT

In the wake of the 2016 election, a little-known county in northeastern Pennsylvania emerged as a national symbol of Donald Trump’s unexpected victory, seeming to epitomize the political forces that explained the stunning outcome.

“Why Did Donald Trump Win? Just Visit Luzerne County, Pennsylvania” read one headline. The Wall Street Journal reported that “a decline in manufacturing, shrinking populations, a fraying of social cohesion and a rise in immigration” made the area a perfect fit for Trump’s message. Journalist Ben Bradlee, Jr. wrote a whole book about the county of 317,000.

Four years later, Trump is the underdog in his reelection campaign. And his ability to repeat — or expand on — his performance in Luzerne County is essential to his hopes of achieving an upset victory in this critical battleground state.

“The Luzerne County voter was the definition of the forgotten men and women. Nobody in Washington was standing up for them. They’d lost hope,” said former GOP Rep. Lou Barletta, a top Trump ally in Pennsylvania who represented a Luzerne-based district. “I don’t believe the president lost any support from 2016 here. If anything, he may have even gained more.”

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more at link

[no_hypocrisy]

1. 2016 Trump held a rally at the Kirby Center in Wilkes-Barre.

The place was flooded with attendees. I figured, hey, they don't have Broadway and this is the closest they're going to get. This region is scarlet red. They're the ones who gave us Trump.

[Demsrule86]

2. No it doesn't. We are doing well in Pennsylvania...another hit piece from the usual

Suspects. Politico is righty all the way.

[Bobstandard]

3. More bullshit analysis from Politico

They are a paragon of horse race journalism with a soupçon of bothsiderism to boot. Lazy, lazy, lazy.

[greenjar_01]

4. Was Trump down 30 points on the Philly Mainline in 2016?

No.

This is laughable.

Politico up to their usual tricks.

[Sogo]

5. Luzerne County is the same place where Barr and Trump

were squealing about nine ballots that were thrown in the trash can....

Something smells fishy.

[BumRushDaShow]

6. No. The "unexpected victory" was fueled by Erie County

While the "media" keeps harping on NE PA, NW PA is being completely ignored by them. And I expect it is on purpose.

In 2018, with the newly un-gerrymandered Congressional District (now PA-8), that includes Luzerne County as well as both cities of Scranton and Wilkes-Barre (that were previously "diluted" into 2 separate districts by the PA GOP when they first drew the congressional lines just after 2010), Matt Cartwright (D) won reelection in the reconfigured district, by 9% against the GOP challenger.

Meanwhile, like SE PA, NW PA with Erie County (which includes the city of Erie, PA) and W PA's Allegheny County (which includes the city of Pittsburgh) were reliably blue. Erie flipped in 2016. NE PA for the most part held, albeit with a lower margin for the most part, save for some cherry-picked areas.

Biden is speaking today in Erie (looks to be scheduled at 4:45 pm EDT).

[crickets]

7. Great info - thanks, BumRushDaShow! nt

[BumRushDaShow]

8. You can really see what was going on with this -

2012 (Presidential elections)



2016 (Presidential elections)



And since then, the 2018 election was telling for what was rumbling in this state, when our Congressional delegation went from 13 (R) - 5 (D) with the gerrymandering, to 9 (R) - 9 (D) when the lines were re-drawn to be "compact and contiguous" per the PA state Constitution.

2018 (Congressional elections)



The city of Erie has a population of 96,000. Scranton has a population of 77,000 & Wilkes-Barre has a population of 41,000. We need Erie back.

[onethatcares]

9. if Jobs are the key or

the economy is the reason it's gone red, what kind of jobs are available in the state? Aside from Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and the Harrisburg area.

I moved out of the SE side of the state in 77. Haven't missed it a bit since but after highschool, I was able to get union job after union job in the Reading area. As time went by I'd go back to visit and those mill and factory jobs were going, going, gone to be replaced by the healthcare industry. Hospitals and nursing homes along with their support offices. Even many of the farms were gone, displaced by suburbia

My relatives came from the coal regions, Carbon, Schuylkill, N. Cumberland never had much going for them from the earliest I can remember. Their coal industry died a long time ago.

Going back to my ?. How do you deal with people that need the hand up but are poisoned by listening to hate radio that decries that hand up? Or, how do you woo them into the fold?

BTW, I remember my dad arguing with my uncles about why (my dad) moved to Reading for a UAW job. I remember same uncle complaining about the inception of Medicare even though he couldn't afford to see a doctor if his life depended on it. Meanwhile, my dad paid off his mortgage early, bought a new car every three years, put 5 kids almost through parochial school, and had health insurance through his job. My uncle died pretty much pennyless in a trailer that was on someone elses land.