Wisconsin is the new tipping point state in the 538 model.

[RandySF]

Nate's model now indicates that Joe is now in a stronger position to win Pennsylvania than Wisconsin.




https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

[BGBD]

1. WI and PA

are basically even, with PA being slightly more likely to win, so WI gets the TP designation in the model.

It will likely flip back and forth for a bit as more polls change odds on the margins.

[Indykatie]

2. Makes Sense - I saw a couple polls Where Joe was +10 in PA

He seems to be stuck at +5 in Wisconsin. There were some big shifts in some states toward Joe last week so maybe his WI numbers will rise above +5.

[njhoneybadger]

3. If we lost WI and AZ possible 269-269 tie. We would lose because of house delegations.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/01/what-will-happen-if-theres-a-tie-in-the-electoral-college.html

[Wanderlust988]

4. But Biden is polling ahead quite a bit in NE-02 district

He won't lose that district. He'll get 270.

[njhoneybadger]

7. That's good, I'm still shell shocked from last time.

[moonscape]

5. What? Trump president with Kamala VP?

Can we time machine back and have a chat with the framers please?

Like now now.

[Tennessee Hillbilly]

6. Pennsylvania is a much bigger prize

Pennsylvania has 20 electoral votes and Wisconsin only has 10.