Trump's re-election 'in trouble' as his base deserts him: Fox News polling analyst

[catbyte]

October 11, 2020
By Sarah Toce

“There’s an old adage in polling: ‘The incumbent gets what the incumbent is getting.’ It means that when analyzing polls, don’t look at the difference between the two candidates — just look at the incumbent’s number. That’s essentially where voters will land on Election Day,” Arnon Mishkin wrote in an opinion piece for Fox News Sunday. “The adage is based on the belief that voters have formed a fairly solid opinion about the incumbent, who is typically the better-known candidate. As for folks who say they’re undecided, they’ve usually decided that they’re not supporting the incumbent. But they haven’t thought enough yet to make a final decision. Once they do, they most likely wind up choosing the challenger.”

In the case of incumbent president Donald J. Trump, “this year’s presidential race will certainly be one of the contests when the rule works. It’s basically a referendum on Trump.”

Current polling shows that although Trump received 55 percent of the vote in 18 states on Election Day 2016, he is now pulling in 55 percent in only five of the 18. Add to that his trailing numbers in the top 10 states where he received the most support in 2016 and it’s a troubling scenario for the former reality star. The 10 states where Trump should be invincible are West Virginia, Wyoming, Oklahoma, North Dakota, Kentucky, Alabama, South Dakota, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Idaho. But he’s not. Except for Idaho where he’s up only be 2 percentage points, Trump is trailing his 2016 numbers between 5-10.5 percent.

“To be reelected, the president needs to continue to try to boost the turnout from his base,” Mishkin wrote. “That means focusing on his core populist messages of immigration and support for economic growth that made him the surprise winner of the 2016 presidential election.”

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/10/trumps-re-election-in-trouble-as-his-base-deserts-him-fox-news-polling-analyst/

[malaise]

1. ByeDon

Goodfuckingriddance!

Get thee to the greatest page RFN!

[The Magistrate]

3. Done, Ma'am

[11 Bravo]

4. I gave it an extra nudge, sir.

[The Magistrate]

2. That Is The Old Rule Of Thumb, Ma'am

I think it still holds. Things get to be long-standing rules of thumb because they emerge from long experience, and things do not really change all that much.

One of many oddities regarding 2016 is the Mrs. Clinton was in a real sense 'the incumbent' in that election, owing to her long public career.

[malaise]

5. That one was stolen

Everyone is more alert this time
History will absolve me

[moonscape]

6. I've wondered lately if Putin could be a smidge less

aggressive than he planned. Don't flame me!

I know he is engaging in powerful measures, but what if he sees the writing on the wall, that he can do enough to cause chaos but maybe stops short of what he actually could do because he knows the coming new administration could make him pay $$ignificantly. It was said Putin held back in 2018.

Pipe dream? Most likely.

[rso]

10. Putin

I think Putin is being careful. He knows Biden will be fully aware of what measures Putin is taking. Apart from crippling sanctions that Biden could impose, Putin knows that our offensive cyber capabilities, which Donnie has not used, are far superior to his and would cause lots of problems for Putin.

[kimbutgar]

13. They were counting on flipping votes in those internet connected diebold voting machines probably

Also had the software ready to go. The pandemic changed the minds of voters who wanted to vote by absentee ballot voting instead of insecure voting machines foiled their plan and that’s why the orange jackal is complaining about mail in voting.

Someday the real truth will be uncovered how he manipulated the votes in his favor. I bet the FBI has the evidence but it was suppressed or destroyed by Sessions and Barr. But somebody somewhere might have that evidence and hopefully it comes out and will show MF45 was an illegitimate President.

[Tommymac]

19. 50,000 'ReThug' Poll Watchers.

This is also how they planned to steal the vote - through personal intimidation.

Voting by mail largely counters that strategy.

That's why Putin & KillerClown have been trying to intimidate folks about mail in voting. To drive them back to in person voting where the Proud Boys can then intimidate them and challenge them.

So much to be watchful for. Glad we mailed ours in - the county already has them and only took 2 days. In PA.

[zentrum]

18. I still think Putin will...

…go all out. He knows sowing as much chaos as possible helps his agenda. Putin will at least go for a close vote, even if Biden wins. He knows this in itself will create tremendous turmoil.

[WinstonSmith4740]

20. I've been thinking along those lines for a couple of months now.

I think Putin's had it with Trump, and I think he knows Trump is about to get his ass handed to him. Trumps ended up conning Vlad just like he conned everyone else. I'm sure Vlad thought he was hiring a bad ass but think about it...Trump hasn't killed any journalists (letting the Saudi's do it for you doesn't count), he hasn't been able to jail any political opponents, and he hasn't poisoned any. I'm sure he's been a major disappoint for Vlad. By now, he's grooming Trump's successor.

[Blue Owl]

7. DESTROY the DIABOLICAL DONALD

[ProfessorGAC]

8. My Favorite Line

"...for the former reality star..."
Not POTUS. Not billionaire. Not tycoon. Not business giant.
"... former reality star".
I like the ring of that.

[Catcar]

9. The chipping away at his base flake by flake has taken time, but now is precisely the right moment.

[I_UndergroundPanther]

11. Chipping away

Snowflake by snowflake..
😹

[Catcar]

16. The snowflakes are melting away! Wait, will that harm the Aquifers? I won't think about that now...

[Cha]

12. 1st of all.. FU Mishkin.. the Fake "president" is a Traitor

and a Murdering Fascist. He needs to go DOWN.

[Newest Reality]

14. Is he losing his base?

Or are they just prone to getting easily lost and wondering around a lot until they see an orange or shiny thing to capture their attention and remind them of where they are?

[Progressive dog]

15. Go and take your evil spawn with you, covid Donny.

[Roc2020]

17. His presidency will be cursed

for as long as the USA exist.

[Sherman A1]

21. Interesting read

We will have to see what happens.

[Rabrrrrrr]

22. His constant barrage of anti-"Sleepy Joe" tweets/Facebook show his desperation

and that he knows he's toast.

The giant steaming pile of human garbage has no chance to win, so he's lashing out at everything and everyone else - because he's never been mature enough to take responsibility for anything.

All he has left now is to cast enough doubt on the election process that he can mobilize his base to fight the results.

[redstatebluegirl]

23. Did they all sign a form saying they can't sue? I'm sure they did.

[Grins]

24. The what?

His “...core populist messages of immigration and support for economic growth” did not make “him the surprise winner of the 2016 presidential election.”

The electoral college made him the surprise winner. That was the surprise!

[Beartracks]

25. To boost turnout from his base, he has to keep lying, harder than ever.

For a so-called reality TV star, he seems to be getting more and more divorced from reality.

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