General Discussion

brooklynite

(96,882 posts) Mon Oct 12, 2020, 01:28 PM Oct 2020

Why GA-SEN and GA-SEN-S are still low probability pickups...

If Jon Ossoff doesn't get 50% (unlikely) it goes to a runoff

If Raphael Warnock doesn't get 50% (not possible) it goes to a runoff

These runoffs will be held in December:
+ AFTER election day which means lower turnout
+ AFTER Democrats have won the Senate which means less need
+ AFTER Biden wins the White House which means the "don't give him a blank check" argument has more clout among Republican voters

12 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Why GA-SEN and GA-SEN-S are still low probability pickups... (Original Post) brooklynite Oct 2020 OP

The real reason is edhopper Oct 2020 #1

Anything is possible MFM008 Oct 2020 #2

I would bet along those lines. However, in 2018, I did not think Lucy McBath had a chance in Hoyt Oct 2020 #3

If it was strictly an Election Day race, I'd agree; it's the runoffs that are the problem. brooklynite Oct 2020 #5

If Warnock or Ossoff get in a runoff, they have a chance. Don't know why Democrats should Hoyt Oct 2020 #9

History says otherwise... brooklynite Oct 2020 #10

Like 2018 mid-terms? If Ossoff and/or Warnock get in a runoff, I hope Democrats invest in Hoyt Oct 2020 #12

I agree. Laelth Oct 2020 #4

Lieberman.... gee, where have I heard that name before? groundloop Oct 2020 #11

Good Points ... BUT zebrapa Oct 2020 #6

I think we don't know at all qazplm135 Oct 2020 #7

On the plus side MoonlitKnight Oct 2020 #8

edhopper

(37,521 posts)

1. The real reason is

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Oct 12, 2020, 01:32 PM

Oct 2020

Kemp cheats.

MFM008

(20,042 posts)

2. Anything is possible

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Oct 12, 2020, 01:33 PM

Oct 2020

Until it is not.

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)

3. I would bet along those lines. However, in 2018, I did not think Lucy McBath had a chance in

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Oct 12, 2020, 01:38 PM

Oct 2020

Newt Gingrich and Tom Price's old District either.

brooklynite

(96,882 posts)

5. If it was strictly an Election Day race, I'd agree; it's the runoffs that are the problem.

Reply to Hoyt (Reply #3)

Mon Oct 12, 2020, 01:44 PM

Oct 2020

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)

9. If Warnock or Ossoff get in a runoff, they have a chance. Don't know why Democrats should

Reply to brooklynite (Reply #5)

Mon Oct 12, 2020, 02:04 PM

Oct 2020

be considered less enthusiastic -- in a runoff -- than ignorant rubes.

brooklynite

(96,882 posts)

10. History says otherwise...

Reply to Hoyt (Reply #9)

Mon Oct 12, 2020, 02:30 PM

Oct 2020

Democratic votes drop off in midterms, and especially in special elections.

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)

12. Like 2018 mid-terms? If Ossoff and/or Warnock get in a runoff, I hope Democrats invest in

Reply to brooklynite (Reply #10)

Mon Oct 12, 2020, 05:41 PM

Oct 2020

getting them elected.

Laelth

(32,017 posts)

4. I agree.

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Oct 12, 2020, 01:39 PM

Oct 2020

Both are unlikely. Lieberman’s participation really hurts.

-Laelth

groundloop

(13,910 posts)

11. Lieberman.... gee, where have I heard that name before?

Reply to Laelth (Reply #4)

Mon Oct 12, 2020, 02:36 PM

Oct 2020

zebrapa

(112 posts)

6. Good Points ... BUT

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Oct 12, 2020, 01:50 PM

Oct 2020

Do not underestimate Stacey Abram's ability to get out the vote.

qazplm135

(7,654 posts)

7. I think we don't know at all

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Oct 12, 2020, 01:51 PM

Oct 2020

what "probability" these pickups would or would not be.

How do you know what the shape of the landscape will be after the election?

There could be several reasons why GA Dems are highly motivated to come out or even moreso than Republicans.

MoonlitKnight

(1,585 posts)

8. On the plus side

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Oct 12, 2020, 01:56 PM

Oct 2020

We could see massive small donor participation

The changeover to newly elected won’t have happened yet Keeping interest high.

Adding two seats to a Senate majority to rescue ACA would be a huge cross party motivation.

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