Two Polls That Predicted Trump's 2016 Win Now Predict His 2020 Landslide Loss

[Roland99]

https://www.newsweek.com/two-polls-that-predicted-trumps-2016-win-now-predict-his-2020-landslide-loss-1538501

In 2016, both the Investor's Business Daily/TechnoMetrica poll (IBD/TIPP) and University of Southern California Dornslife/Los Angeles Times poll (USC/LA Times) both predicted Trump's victory.

The day before Election Day 2016, the IBD/TIPP poll showed Trump beating Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton by 2 percentage points and the USC/LA Times poll showed Trump beating Clinton by 3.2 percentage points.

...

As of October 12, 2020, the IBD/TIPP poll has Trump losing to Biden by 8.5 percentage points, and the USC poll has Trump losing to Biden by 13 percentage points. It seems The LA Times is no longer partnering with USC for its 2020 poll.

...

The latest USC poll has had Biden consistently beating Trump by at least eight percentage points since late August. Four years ago, it showed Trump consistently beating Clinton for all but four days from September 12, 2016 to November 8, 2016.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

1. Ha! Was about to post this very article. nt

[Roland99]

2. lol

GMTA!

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

5. Indeed.

[roamer65]

3. 21 days.

[tormadjax]

4. This election is OVER!!! n/t

[PTWB]

11. That is a right wing talking point.

It is FAR from over. VOTE!!

[tormadjax]

18. I voted n/t

[whopis01]

21. lol - can't argue with that logic

From your point of view this election is certainly over!

[Marius25]

12. Nope, it's not.

Trump and the GOP are cheating like crazy. Trump can still win.

[Cicada]

6. USC concluded after the election that their 2016 poll was flawed

They discovered that they had been over sampling a geographic area which was pro Trump. If they had not made that error then in 2016 they probably would have been like the other polls.

[Awsi Dooger]

19. USC said the current model would have had Hillary by 1 in 2016

They oversampled rural voters

[Cicada]

20. So far, so good, assuming states choose electors based on votes

[Beartracks]

7. Don't ANYONE get complacent, like you're vote's no longer necessary.

These predictions assume that YOU are one of the votes that are required to make this come true.

Everybody do your part!!

Thank you.



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[napi21]

8. OH how I hope these polls are right! I still see a LOT of trumpers around here & hear the same from

friends in several other States. My husban asked m the other night "What are you gonna do is he wins again?" I don't know. Every day he creates more anger in my life & I can't deal with much more!

[sandensea]

9. Amazing. Investors Business Daily was a yellow right-wing rag in the '90s and aughts

Full of not only GOP opinion and fake news; but puerile insults such as exhorting Republicans to vote "if for no other reason than to cancel out Democrats driving their Geo Metros to the polls."

But it's amazing the effect Trump has had on many country-club Republicans.

God works in mysterious ways.

[SWBTATTReg]

10. I'm ignoring these polls. There's a slew of them everyday. What's I'm going to pay attention to,

is getting out on voting day and voting. Why distract people with poll after poll after poll after...

Isn't the job at hand to focus voters' attention on getting out and voting, and nothing else?

[AleksS]

13. The polls showing him losing were the right ones though...

He did, in fact, lose the percentage of votes cast.

Polls that showed him winning the percentage of popular votes were the wrong ones.

[DrToast]

14. So tired of people saying that about the USC poll. They DID NOT predict a Trump win

They predicted Trump would win the popular vote, which he most certainly did not.

They say they have fixed the poll methodology this year, and they probably did, but they did not predict a Trump win.

[Loki Liesmith]

15. These polls didn't correctly predict his 2016 win

They were grossly incorrect in 2016.

They wrongly predicted Trump would win the popular vote.

[Fiendish Thingy]

16. Except that both polls were wrong about 2016 popular vote margin by 5-6%, so...nt

[musclecar6]

17. Between now and Nov 3rd

Trump’s strategy is to continue doing what he does best. Conning cheating and lying for his base of deplorable’s cheap skates and stupid fucks. Along the way he hopes to roll over some independents who don’t have enough brains to come in out of the rain and somehow charm or bullshit or intimidate them to come over to his side. Will he get away with it? He might so we got to keep the pressure on and hopefully we win. One thing is for sure just like always is this will be a fight to the finish.