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Tue Oct 13, 2020, 12:51 PM

Two Polls That Predicted Trump's 2016 Win Now Predict His 2020 Landslide Loss

https://www.newsweek.com/two-polls-that-predicted-trumps-2016-win-now-predict-his-2020-landslide-loss-1538501
In 2016, both the Investor's Business Daily/TechnoMetrica poll (IBD/TIPP) and University of Southern California Dornslife/Los Angeles Times poll (USC/LA Times) both predicted Trump's victory.

The day before Election Day 2016, the IBD/TIPP poll showed Trump beating Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton by 2 percentage points and the USC/LA Times poll showed Trump beating Clinton by 3.2 percentage points.

...

As of October 12, 2020, the IBD/TIPP poll has Trump losing to Biden by 8.5 percentage points, and the USC poll has Trump losing to Biden by 13 percentage points. It seems The LA Times is no longer partnering with USC for its 2020 poll.

...

The latest USC poll has had Biden consistently beating Trump by at least eight percentage points since late August. Four years ago, it showed Trump consistently beating Clinton for all but four days from September 12, 2016 to November 8, 2016.

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Arrow 21 replies Author Time Post
Reply Two Polls That Predicted Trump's 2016 Win Now Predict His 2020 Landslide Loss (Original post)
Roland99 Oct 2020 OP
Guy Whitey Corngood Oct 2020 #1
Roland99 Oct 2020 #2
Guy Whitey Corngood Oct 2020 #5
roamer65 Oct 2020 #3
tormadjax Oct 2020 #4
PTWB Oct 2020 #11
tormadjax Oct 2020 #18
whopis01 Oct 2020 #21
Marius25 Oct 2020 #12
Cicada Oct 2020 #6
Awsi Dooger Oct 2020 #19
Cicada Oct 2020 #20
Beartracks Oct 2020 #7
napi21 Oct 2020 #8
sandensea Oct 2020 #9
SWBTATTReg Oct 2020 #10
AleksS Oct 2020 #13
DrToast Oct 2020 #14
Loki Liesmith Oct 2020 #15
Fiendish Thingy Oct 2020 #16
musclecar6 Oct 2020 #17

Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Tue Oct 13, 2020, 12:52 PM

1. Ha! Was about to post this very article. nt

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Response to Guy Whitey Corngood (Reply #1)

Tue Oct 13, 2020, 12:53 PM

2. lol

GMTA!

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Response to Roland99 (Reply #2)

Tue Oct 13, 2020, 12:59 PM

5. Indeed.

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Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Tue Oct 13, 2020, 12:54 PM

3. 21 days.

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Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Tue Oct 13, 2020, 12:54 PM

4. This election is OVER!!! n/t

 

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Response to tormadjax (Reply #4)

Tue Oct 13, 2020, 01:15 PM

11. That is a right wing talking point.

It is FAR from over. VOTE!!

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Response to PTWB (Reply #11)

Tue Oct 13, 2020, 02:21 PM

18. I voted n/t

 

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Response to tormadjax (Reply #18)

Tue Oct 13, 2020, 03:19 PM

21. lol - can't argue with that logic

From your point of view this election is certainly over!

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Response to tormadjax (Reply #4)

Tue Oct 13, 2020, 01:18 PM

12. Nope, it's not.

Trump and the GOP are cheating like crazy. Trump can still win.

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Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Tue Oct 13, 2020, 01:06 PM

6. USC concluded after the election that their 2016 poll was flawed

They discovered that they had been over sampling a geographic area which was pro Trump. If they had not made that error then in 2016 they probably would have been like the other polls.

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Response to Cicada (Reply #6)

Tue Oct 13, 2020, 02:22 PM

19. USC said the current model would have had Hillary by 1 in 2016

 

They oversampled rural voters

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Response to Awsi Dooger (Reply #19)

Tue Oct 13, 2020, 03:15 PM

20. So far, so good, assuming states choose electors based on votes

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Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Tue Oct 13, 2020, 01:07 PM

7. Don't ANYONE get complacent, like you're vote's no longer necessary.

These predictions assume that YOU are one of the votes that are required to make this come true.

Everybody do your part!!

Thank you.



=========

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Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Tue Oct 13, 2020, 01:09 PM

8. OH how I hope these polls are right! I still see a LOT of trumpers around here & hear the same from

friends in several other States. My husban asked m the other night "What are you gonna do is he wins again?" I don't know. Every day he creates more anger in my life & I can't deal with much more!

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Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Tue Oct 13, 2020, 01:09 PM

9. Amazing. Investors Business Daily was a yellow right-wing rag in the '90s and aughts

Full of not only GOP opinion and fake news; but puerile insults such as exhorting Republicans to vote "if for no other reason than to cancel out Democrats driving their Geo Metros to the polls."

But it's amazing the effect Trump has had on many country-club Republicans.

God works in mysterious ways.

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Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Tue Oct 13, 2020, 01:13 PM

10. I'm ignoring these polls. There's a slew of them everyday. What's I'm going to pay attention to,

is getting out on voting day and voting. Why distract people with poll after poll after poll after...

Isn't the job at hand to focus voters' attention on getting out and voting, and nothing else?

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Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Tue Oct 13, 2020, 01:26 PM

13. The polls showing him losing were the right ones though...

He did, in fact, lose the percentage of votes cast.

Polls that showed him winning the percentage of popular votes were the wrong ones.

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Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Tue Oct 13, 2020, 01:31 PM

14. So tired of people saying that about the USC poll. They DID NOT predict a Trump win

They predicted Trump would win the popular vote, which he most certainly did not.

They say they have fixed the poll methodology this year, and they probably did, but they did not predict a Trump win.

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Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Tue Oct 13, 2020, 01:47 PM

15. These polls didn't correctly predict his 2016 win

They were grossly incorrect in 2016.

They wrongly predicted Trump would win the popular vote.

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Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Tue Oct 13, 2020, 01:53 PM

16. Except that both polls were wrong about 2016 popular vote margin by 5-6%, so...nt

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Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Tue Oct 13, 2020, 01:54 PM

17. Between now and Nov 3rd



Trumpís strategy is to continue doing what he does best. Conning cheating and lying for his base of deplorableís cheap skates and stupid fucks. Along the way he hopes to roll over some independents who donít have enough brains to come in out of the rain and somehow charm or bullshit or intimidate them to come over to his side. Will he get away with it? He might so we got to keep the pressure on and hopefully we win. One thing is for sure just like always is this will be a fight to the finish.

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