Messing around on 538

[Dr. Jack]

It's a very slow, boring day at work, so I decided to mess around on 538. Here is some fun, random information I found about the state of the Presidential election:

Electoral vote based on which candidate is leading in each state:

Biden 368
Trump 170

Electoral votes based on states that each candidate has over an 80% chance of winning

Biden 275
Trump 123

Electoral votes based on states that each candidate has over a 90% chance of winning

Biden 255
Trump 104

Interesting states that Biden has a higher percentage chance of winning than Trump has of winning the election (Trump is currently at 13%)

Iowa: 43% chance of a Biden win
Texas: 31%
Alaska: 22%

Interesting states that Biden has roughly the same odds of winning as Trump has of winning the election

South Carolina:12% chance of a Biden win
Missouri: 10%
Montana: 10%
Kansas: 7%


Projected vote totals: Experts expect about 150 million votes in this presidential election

Biden: 80,250,000
Trump 67,800,000

Biden +12,450,000 votes

[SoonerPride]

1. It will be a bloodbath and the republicans know it

The American populace, by a large majority, are sick of trump and trumpsim.

I liked your deep dive with the numbers. Thanks!

[Dr. Jack]

3. There was a poll out a few months ago of likely voters

Something like 53% said they wouldn't vote for Trump under any circumstances. I think it was Cook Political Report or maybe Sabato that interpreted that to mean that 53% of voters are done with Trump. Just sick of him and want him gone. Those people are going to be nearly impossible for the Republicans to win over because they just don't want to deal with Trump and his bullshit anymore.

[SoonerPride]

4. Yes, indeed.

I wish it was 90%.

But 53% is more than enough to get the point across to the GOP that we have had it.

[Roland99]

2. I went to RealClearPolitics and used their interactive map. Gave Biden any state he was +4 or higher

and the same for trump

Biden was at 278 with several states still in the tossup category

[brush]

5. Thank you, Dr. Jack. I feel better already. So tired of trump.