For the love of god, please stop with the 'run like we're 10 points down' nonsense!

[babylonsister]

For the love of god, please stop with the 'run like we're 10 points down' nonsense!
kos for Daily Kos
Daily Kos Staff
Thursday October 15, 2020 · 10:50 AM EDT


I have a new saying: Conservatives can’t handle bad news. Liberals can’t handle good news.

I can’t even with the chorus of people responding to every good poll hyperventilating about “ignore the polls!” and “run like we’re 10, no TWENTY points down!”

Let me be clear: no one is motivated by losing. So please stop!

I get the intent, this belief that someone will see a good poll and decide that they can take it easy and not vote. There is a fear about complacency if people start believing that we’re winning.

BUT IT’S NOT TRUE.

We didn’t lose 2016 because of complacency. We lost because of voter suppression in Detroit, Philly, and Milwaukee.

snip//

Don’t tell people we’re losing, or to pretend that we’re losing, because you’re hurting the cause.


2) No one is staying home no matter what

Take a look at the early vote numbers. Our people are turning out. In Florida. In Georgia. In Texas. In everywhere.

People aren’t voting to elect Joe Biden anymore. They’re voting to give Donald Trump the biggest middle finger possible. This is transcending mere electoral considerations and becoming a cultural moment.

more...

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/10/15/1986564/-For-the-love-of-god-please-stop-with-the-run-like-we-re-10-points-down-nonsense

[calimary]

1. Why? I think we still have to.

The first inkling that “we GOT this!” is a political death wish. And complacency can set in SOOOO damn easily. That, and laziness.

That’s a big fat NO!

ANYTHING can happen with less than three weeks to go! ANYTHING can up-end the apple cart. Especially when the losing side starts getting desperate and has Russian “friends” in its collective back pocket.

[Codeine]

5. But he's been ahead for months

and there is absolutely zero indication that complacency is setting in. People are even more motivated, because we can see the goal. Telling people they’re going to lose just creates fatalism; instead lets take the opportunity to gather together and show these motherfuckers that there are more of us, that their numbers dwindle by the day, and that the future isn’t what they thought it was going to be.

[wryter2000]

13. Wish I could rec a reply

[TeamPooka]

20. if anything I think people are more motivated as election day appraoches and voting is open

[brooklynite]

38. If you've survived an aggressive campaign despite "being ahead for months"...

You can survive one for three more weeks.

[Demsrule86]

14. There is no 'complacency' when you believe you will win...but there is a 'why bother' when

you think you will lose...negative news and attitudes especially when you are actually ahead is demoralizing. The worst is ...' it doesn't matter because of the Russians'...such crap that hurts our chances and does not helps our chances.

[LakeArenal]

29. !

[Demsrule86]

36. Thank you.

[getagrip_already]

55. Actually that's wrong....

On a lot of levels.

First, getting pissed off IS a motivator. If this were a normal election, it would be over already. It's not.

Second, there IS a complacency that comes with being "ahead". We saw that in 2016 when people were so sure we would win they split their votes in protest or simply didn't vote for the potus line. That hurt us badly.

So you can put your fingers in your ears and sing la-la-la all you want. I see evil afoot and I'm going to keep warning people to vote like its their last election - because it just might be.

[Demsrule86]

58. Actually that is not wrong. Worked year in GOTV...there is a tendency to give up if you think

you might lose...while people want to participate in a winning election...What you don't understand is one actually depresses the votes with doom and gloom...self fulfilling prophecy. I would also add that constantly focusing on bad news (sky is falling) while ignoring much good news doesn't even make sense.

[getagrip_already]

59. we will have to disagree..... Because nobody believes we are losing

What I'm railing against is people believing this is "in the bag, nothing to worry about, might as well cast a protest vote" or even "why stand in an 8 hour line, we have this".

THAT is what is far more likely. We have unbridled optimism. We don't have gloom and doom. We need optimism, but not complacency.

So while nobody believes we are losing, plenty of us realize we can lose.

[Demsrule86]

60. I have never seen that...And we are much more united than last time. But we can agree to disagree.

Even this year, I have called and heard ...why bother to vote as 1. our ballot won't be counted 2. Trump is stealing the election anyway, 3. I heard that Trump is winning XYZ state...we are doomed etc. Doom and gloom drives people away from the polls. I have had years of experience. We can agree to disagree.

[Codeine]

63. The people who did that in 16 weren't complacent,

they were unmitigated assholes who decided to to throw their toys from the pram. Nothing whatever to do with complacency.

[lagomorph777]

24. "Don't tell people we're losing, or to pretend that we're losing"

You're not motivating me to vote.

You're motivating me to commit suicide.

Just stop it.

Whose side are you on?

[StarryNite]

44. I'm with you.

We need to not be complacent and vote like our lives depend on it because they do!

[GusBob]

2. It seems to me saying such things gives fodder to the other side

folks that are sketchy about donating or supporting a losing side

but in the end maybe, what, 0.25% of the entire electorate has made yet to make up their minds about whom to vote for? The rest from here on out aint even window dressing, its dog and pony show at less than a dime a seat

Keep 'er moving hey, the die has been cast

[wryter2000]

18. Cornell Belcher yesterday

Pointed out that Biden is over 50% in many states. Sure, the difference still might be 4%, but it's astonishing for him to be over 50%. You usually see 4% leads of 48 to 44.

As you point out, the number of undecideds is tiny. If you can forget for the moment about the MOE, if you see Biden 51, Trump 46, that's a 5% difference, but there are only 3% of undecideds for Trump to win.

[ihas2stinkyfeet]

3. all i can say it-

A-FUCKING-MEN.

[TheRealNorth]

4. I think its prudent to be cautious

my concern is that most of the early votes we see being cast are those that would have voted anyway on election day. I have not seen any numbers on whether there is a large percentage of new voters.

Then there are my concerns about higher ballot "spoilage" rates because people make a mistake with their absentee ballots, and what the post office is doing.

[Demsrule86]

15. And there is nothing you can do about those concerns is there? So to constantly worry

aloud of such concerns which can't be addressed tends to depress the vote...how about the fact more people are voting and it looks like a landslide for us? That is the truth...and landslides are very difficult to steal and a few spoiled ballots won't mean a damn thing.

[stopdiggin]

46. the OP didn't attack "cautious"

it went after the spurious chicken little idea that if we aren't using cattle prods of fear -- that somehow a whole bunch of voters are going to (inexplicably) stay home. Every available piece of evidence says, that ain't happening -- and therefore the constant admonishments that we need to "guard" against it are annoying (and perhaps a little insulting.)
----- --- -----

[LizBeth]

6. I agree. I awoke to this board hearing the race is tightening. Biden is 10, 11 points ahead.

When it is down to 5 then tell me about it tightening and to be afraid. 10, 11 is not tightening.

[obamanut2012]

9. He went from 10.6 to 10.3 and OPs were saying it was tightening

It is ridiculous. It is .3.

[LizBeth]

11. Right. It has been moving around 9-11 consistently thru out the race.

[johnp3907]

7. Nope!

[GemDigger]

32. Exactly!

10 ahead is nice but 15 ahead would be better. This race is not over, do not get cocky, do not get complacent but keep on running, GOTV because shit does happen.

[obamanut2012]

8. I agree with you n/t

[My Pet Orangutan]

10. Biden has the most substantial, consistent and long lasting polling lead

of any candidate since Reagan in 1984.

[crimycarny]

12. It's the nature of a progressive mindset

I’m over generalizing here, but it does seem that there are a ton more neurotics on the left than on the right.

This exact same phenomena happened during 2008 (and other election years to a lesser extent). 2008 was similar in that it felt like such a critical election, the first black President, the message of Hope, etc. 2020 seems almost like life or death. The point being, the more we care the more neurotic we get.

I agree 100% that too much of the fear side of things (“It’s not in the bag!!”, “polls were wrong in 2016!”, “people will get complacent!!”) are emotionally exhausting and counter-productive. Feeling hopeful does not equal complacency.

I’ve repeated this quote many times before and I’ll repeat it again because it’s such a perfect description of conservative versus left mindset. I think it was someone on DU who said it way back in 2008 when everyone was freaking out the same way. Here it is:

“Show a Republican bad polling data and they want to kill you. Show a Democrat bad polling data and they want to kill themselves.”

[lagomorph777]

26. Even more neurotic; show me good polling data, then tell me to kill myself.

Enough with trying to discourage me from voting, already!

Fortunately, I've voted, already.

So even if DU's concern trolls succeed in getting me to kill myself, they won't succeed in suppressing my vote.

[crimycarny]

30. Who is discouraging anyone ?

NO ONE on DU is discouraging anyone to vote. And no one is telling anyone to kill themselves.

I’m mean, seriously???

[lagomorph777]

31. Telling me to act like we're 10 points behind is telling me not to even bother;

we're all dead.

That message helps Trump/Putin, not good people.

[crimycarny]

35. I'm energized by optimism not pessimism

I believe that’s what you are saying. There is enough angst, worry, and pain being caused by COVID right now. The temptation is to feel desperate about the election versus determined. At least that’s the battle I fight within myself. When I feel the fear—terror—overtaking me (imagining another Trump term) I try to turn all that energy into action. But it’s hard. So reading the well meaning posts about “we can’t get complacent!” only adds fuel to the fear I try to tamp down.

I voted and have made sure every single person in my household votes, have volunteered to be a poll worker, and have joined a progressive group to help spread Joe Biden’s message, Coming to DU and reading the positive news about polls energizes me that what I’m doing might be making a difference. Hearing messages of “we’re not out of the woods” just adds weight.

[lagomorph777]

37. +1 Exactly how I feel.

[Johnny2X2X]

16. Acknowledging reality is always a good thing

Biden is way ahead, it's OK to say that. No one is staying home. In fact 16+ million people have already voted.

[DrToast]

17. If we were down by 10 points...

I’d be exploring countries to move to.

Should I be doing that instead of donating?

[lagomorph777]

27. +1 and I'd be searching for painless suicide methods.

Can't afford to move.

[SWBTATTReg]

19. Thanks for posting this...

I am too, tired of the constant refrains of act like we're losing etc. Instead, I'd like to think instead of the glass half empty, I'd like to think of the glass half full. Enough of this beating ourselves up. I have total confidence in ourselves and we're doing it (obviously by the numbers coming up voting wise). We are winners.

[world wide wally]

21. Pro sports teams know that a winner draws bigger crowds

[octoberlib]

22. I like this! Thanks for posting.

[wryter2000]

23. If you want to worry about something

Worry about the Senate. If Mitch the Ripper is still in charge, we're not going to be able to do the big things we need to do.

So far, we're looking fairly good to end up with 49 seats. We need to find the fiftieth. Our energies should be going to NC, IA, and MT.

[stopdiggin]

49. 100%. now THAT'S important -- MUCH more on point

and a place where some hand-wringing and extra motivation might have a real impact.

[CTyankee]

25. "What have you got to lose?" is the question one should ask, IMO.

Be honest with yourself. What do you have to lose if you do/don't.

Simple as that.

[betsuni]

28. THANK YOU. This "complacency" crap makes me want to scream .

Did in 2016, does now.

[LakeArenal]

33. Anxiety is really a useless emotion.

Dwelling on negatives may be a lifestyle.

I knew Joe would win since 2018.

Been called a Pollyanna more than once during this primary and campaign.

But I have been sure the whole time.

Confidence certainly is not complacency.

[EndlessWire]

34. Not sure what the problem is.

This election can make or break the entire nation. We could lose our country if we don't turn out. We have been saying this for a long time now.

I don't care what the polls say. I care about each and every vote being cast and counted. I don't care if we are "winning;" I care that each and every person who can turn out, does turn out. If that buries Trump by 3% or 50%, it doesn't matter. It's pushing with your very toes to tell the GOP that they are done with this fascist crap. Every one of us needs to stand up and say "no" to giving our country up.

The idea is not "let's just push until we are a little over the line;" it's "push until we are overwhelming free of Trump, et al." We also have a duty to show the rest of the world where we stand. There should be no doubt that we are a free society.

We said in the very beginning that we need overwhelming numbers to counter the mischief that Trump and the GOP are doing. Look at the phony ballot boxes that have popped up! Look at the closing poll places where you have nowhere to go to cast your vote! Look at all that! Then tell me we don't have to all turn out to make it abundantly clear that we are kicking Trump and the GOP to the curb!

So, it isn't nonsense to continue to vote like we are losing. We were told that Hillary would win; she did not. Now, it's nonsense if we do not want to stop until we see the W in the column?

VOTE PEOPLE! Your mission is STILL to get your vote counted. Do whatever you think it will take to get your personal vote in the tally! Look neither to the right or nor the left, but straight ahead to the ballot box!

[Silent3]

39. The problem is that "This election can make or break the entire nation" is not at odds...

...with believing that, yes, we're actually doing well in this election.

It is not a necessary head game that we convince ourselves that we're as good as 10 points behind before we can truly appreciate the importance of the election.

And believe it or not, we can actually pay attention to the polls and still move "straight ahead to the ballot box". We aren't that fragile, or that incapable of walking and chewing gum at the same time. Looking at the polls, hell, even obsessing over the polls, is not going to somehow distract us from, or convince us not to, vote.

It's frankly absurd.

[Midnight Writer]

40. It's not just about Biden. It is about other races that will benefit from record breaking turnout.

We need to push it, now, with everything we've got.

Get out the vote.

[Lucinda]

41. +1

[orangecrush]

42. RUN LIKE WE'RE 100 POINTS DOWN!!!

Let's make this the biggest ass whupping in the history of politics!!!!!

[Harker]

47. If you're 100 points down

perhaps it'd be best to abandon the running game and start throwing deep outs.

[Illumination]

43. Yes! Let's vote, not be over confident & remain hopeful...

[Jon King]

45. I disagree, and so does the campaign

Every few hours I got emails from Biden, Harris, etc. that make it sound like the end is near, begging for more, more, more money. They are worded exactly as if Biden is 10 points down. The people who run the campaign know a heck of a lot more than we do and if they think it motivates people, so be it.

[orangecrush]

48. +1

[NotASurfer]

50. I like to think of it as running up the score

1940 NFL Championship is probably too much to hope for, but Super Bowl XXIV might not be out of the realm of possibility

[BadgerMom]

51. K and R

I’m still as traumatized by 2016 as anyone.

I’ve voted. I’ve made certain all the Dems in my family have voted or have a plan. I’m writing postcards. I’ve donated more than I should have. I’ll phone bank as soon as my postcards are done. Personally, I’d much rather be in our position in the polls than the Republicans’ position. STOP telling me to work harder! I wouldn’t know how to do more right now. The ágita is out of hand.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

52. It depends on the locality. In Michigan, we have to keep pushing, ...

... because John James (R) is a real threat to take the senate seat from Gary Peters (D).

So, in MI, gotv regardless of Joe's poll advantage.

[saidsimplesimon]

57. I agree.

[hamsterjill]

53. No, thank you.

Been there. Done that. 2016.

[catbyte]

54. I would just like to reiterate what Graeme Wood wrote in the Atlantic:

"This isn't an election, it's an exorcism."

Don't panic, just vote. I think it will be okay.

[SpankMe]

56. Total bullshit. Again.

Trump's 2016 victory was, at its root, a voter turnout problem.

Yes, there were issues with voter suppression, Hillary's campaign not putting enough emphasis in certain areas, Russian interference and the rest.

But no one will ever convince me that complacency about "this idiot can't possibly win" wasn't the single largest factor in people letting poker night out prioritize voting.

When we relax, we lose.

Run like you're 10 points behind.

[lame54]

61. Have you seen Trump dancing on stage...

He's motivated by losing

[Ms. Toad]

62. A significant reason we lost WAS complacency.

and the reliance on national polls is misplaced, since it is the electoral college that determines who the next president is, and that race is much closer.