Emerson poll (A- rated) on NC Senate race: Cunningham up by 1

[Polybius]

He leads Tillis 45% to 44%. The really bad news is that 12% of voters are undecided.

The poll also lists Trump vs. Biden, which is exactly tied at 49% to 49%.

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/north-carolina-2020-biden-and-trump-neck-and-neck-as-republicans-close-gap-in-u-s-senate-and-governor-races

[dem4decades]

1. Cunningham better not cost us the Senate.

[Thekaspervote]

2. Emerson has had some very mixed outlier polls the past month

The poll aggregator for the Economist does not include them due to their poor polling methodology

[Polybius]

6. FiveThirtyEight doesn't rate them poorly

They are listed as A-.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[BGBD]

7. That is based on previous cycles

Before they started using MTURK for their samples.

They won't be staying at that rating.

[Polybius]

8. You're right, I just read up on them from a poster below

I'm sure if they get this and their other predictions wrong, they may drop to a C rating.

[Demsrule86]

3. This poll is questionable as it uses the 2016 turnout model. Turnout will not be like 2016.

And this is why there polls have been outliers recently including a Biden Poll. Also in 2016 this pollster predicted that Trump would win both the EC and the popular vote...was off by millions.

"The North Carolina Emerson College poll was conducted October 13-14, 2020. The sample consisted of likely Democratic, Republican, and Independent voters, n=721, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.6 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, party affiliation, race and region based on 2016 voter turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines (n=277), SMS-to-web texts (n=143), and an online panel provided by MTurk (n=301)."

[SharonClark]

4. Sienna/NYT has Cunningham up by 4 (41 - 37) and it's rated A+ on 538.

Emerson is rated A-.

[Polybius]

5. Yes, but this one is slightly newer

The other poll was taken from 10/9 - 10/13, while this one was just done in two days, 10/13 - 10/14. Also, that is a ton of undecideds. Wonder who they will break to.