Mothereffing Mothership Of All Polls.

[Rule of Claw]

https://www.tableau.com/data-insights/us-election-2020/candidate-preference

618k plus participants. 53-45 Joe. Very close to the range. Joe is not winning by 15 points. I think 9-11, but perhaps 8. But it is a durable and solid 8. Not to this point a swingy race. Key number: Joe is winning 57-41 with union voters and that suggests the bounceback with white non-college is real.

The Morning Consult poll showed more typical numbers to be expected, 44 with whites vs. 47, 87-8 with AAs. Now it isn't that 618k vs. 1k is going to make that much difference in margin of error. Believe it or not it does not. But what it does allow us is a sizable oversampling of every demographic. Dig down into the state data to get PA plus 7 MI plus 7 WI plus 12. Winning back the union voters is always the key in these states.

[Laelth]

1. Interesting. That sounds about right. n/t

-Laelth

[beachbumbob]

2. I see impossible for trump to get over 44% of the national vote,

and third parties will only take a total max of less than 2%. Doing the math, the national lead and final outcome should have biden at 14+ Pt blowout. This is where this will end up. Simple analysis that trump got 46% in 2016 and is 100% impossible he will get any where near that on Nov 3rd. To me a 14pt margin is the smallest margin to expect. Of course thisdepends on people voting as we expect. To think this is close is to sell ad time and get more donations.

[Codeine]

4. 14% is a pipe dream. nt

[beachbumbob]

8. actually I expect to be larger, you can acknowledge my prediction come Nov

[roamer65]

3. Dump only got 46 percent in 2016.

Those elections where it’s right around 48-48 cause us real problems, like in 1876, 1888, 2000 and 2016.

That is why we need a popular vote runoff system.

[BGBD]

5. Survey Monkey?????

A big sample doesn't mean the poll is better.

Survey Monkey is not reliable.

[Fiendish Thingy]

7. Yeah they are rated D- by 538. Nt

[Kahuna]

9. I cringe every time MSNBC cite SM as their source. nt

[Karadeniz]

6. Crossing my fingers!