Will Trump win [FL] again? Watch Florida's Sumter County for first election night clue.

[Roland99]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/will-trump-win-again-watch-florida-s-sumter-county-first-n1243497

Last week, Democrats took delight in the spectacle of a 500-golf cart flotilla of Joe Biden supporters parading through Florida's largest retirement community en route to turn in their vote-by-mail ballots.

It was a rare sight: The Villages is one of the most staunchly Republican enclaves in the Sunshine State.

...

And it has trended Republican: it voted for Mitt Romney by 35 points in 2012, for Trump by 39 points in 2016, and for Florida GOP Sen. Rick Scott by 42 points in 2018. But the fact the Biden campaign has even so much as a pulse in Sumter gives Democrats hope they can narrow the margins in a Trump stronghold enough to win Florida — and cut off Trump's path to a second term.

...

I'll be looking at Sumter and Pinellas," says veteran Florida Democratic strategist Steve Schale, referring to another senior-heavy county in the St. Petersburg-Clearwater area. "Both of them are really old and over 80 percent white. And you could have 80 to 85 percent of the vote there reported by 7:15pm."

If Biden cuts the deficit in Sumter to around 30% (or even lower), then that’s a VERY good sign he’ll take FL. We’ll see how much seniors are willing to put self over lifelong patterns of bigotry (I’ll take it)

[GulfCoast66]

1. I'll be watching Pasco county. That was the first indicator in 16 that we were going to lose.

[obamanut2012]

4. I think Pasco and Sumter will tell teh tale

I'm in PBC, so we are always blue.

[GulfCoast66]

7. South lake. Lake is red but the south end is more Blue.

We are a bedroom community for Orlando and the theme parks. The north of our county might as well be Sumter county.

[FM123]

2. Yes!

Sumter and Pinellas are def important to watch, there are a lot of seniors who have had it up to here with trump and will not vote for him again.

[beachbumbob]

3. with DeSantis forcing Floridians into HERD IMMUNITY, some these old people may figure it out

and many will not. All we need are the "some" of them

[quaker bill]

5. The latest poll has Pinellas

going Biden by 13.5%. Trump won here in 2016 by about 1%.

[Roland99]

6. Hubba wha????

[Roland99]

8. combined totals from early voting/mail-in (and early party numbers for today)

Sumter Rep-51,185 Dem-20,305 total-86,797 Rep-59.0% Dem-23.4% (remainder would be Other/No Party)

59 - 23.4 = 35.6pts down slightly from 2016's 39pts

If Sumter remains UNDER 37pts I feel Biden stands a small chance in FL

If Sumter remains UNDER 36pts, that's toss-up territory for the state overall.


Should Sumter drop to 35pts or lower, might as well call it for Biden!