Biden's internals has him up 350 Electoral Votes

[Drunken Irishman]

Interesting tidbit leaked out by the campaign yesterday that went unnoticed due to the quality of the stream. They showed the map with their internals and this is how it broke down:

Arizona: Biden up +2.6
Colorado: Biden up +13.8
Nevada: Biden up +7
Texas: Biden down -1.4
NE-02: Biden up +10.6
Iowa: Biden down -3.2
Minnesota: Biden up +8.6
Wisconsin: Biden up +6.0
Michigan: Biden up +6.2
Ohio: Biden down -1.8
Pennsylvania: Biden up +4.4
New Hampshire: Biden +11.6
ME-02: Biden down -.02
Virginia: Biden up +14.2
North Carolina: Biden up +3.0
Georgia: Biden up +3.6
Florida: Biden up +2.7

[elleng]

1. Thanks.

'Down' in Texas, Iowa, Maine and Ohio.

[LisaL]

2. But really close.

Now it all depends on voter turnout.

[COL Mustard]

35. Still too damn close

Run like he’s 15 points behind!!!

[dem4decades]

4. Maine-02. I've been there, those people obviously don't get it.

[regnaD kciN]

3. PA is too damn tight for comfort...

[dem4decades]

5. It's all too tight for comfort.

[CaptYossarian]

8. You want him to get 535 too?

Even Putin would have a mini-stroke.

[dem4decades]

11. Beat a horse dead, then beat a dead horse. I ain't stopping till the Trump presidency is gone.

[CaptYossarian]

12. Just like what Chief Brody did to that first shark.

[whopis01]

46. We're gonna need a bigger vote. n/t

[CaptYossarian]

47. You must make bumper stickers for a living.

That's brilliant!

[aaaaaa5a]

6. Agreed. NT

[Awsi Dooger]

7. Thank you

I'm surprised most by Georgia at +3.6. Conventional wisdom is that Arizona (+2.6) is more friendly than Georgia, but they have it reversed

Arizona has been overstated throughout. I have no idea where those +9 polls came from. States don't shift blue that quickly

Overall it's a logical group of polls. Pennsylvania has an enormous number of working class whites who did not vote in 2016. That's what made it a problem approaching 2020. Based on GOP canvassing here in suburban Miami I know darn well they have devoted 4 years trying to reach all those rural voters who typically do not vote

[Drunken Irishman]

9. Virginia certainly shifted significantly blue between 2004 and 2008.

Bush won it by eight-points in 2004 and Obama won it by 7 in 2008 - a 15 point shift blue.

I don't think Arizona is hovering around double-digits but I also don't think Biden leads by less than three-points, I suspect he's up 4-5 there.

[Statistical]

13. Yeah what is crazy is VA really was only a battleground for two Presidential elections.

It went from pretty solid red to purple to solid blue crazy fast.

[Yavin4]

23. Methinks the same will happen to Texas.

Not this cycle but only a few more.

[PTWB]

15. Obama was a once in a generation candidate.

[Drunken Irishman]

19. That wasn't the only reason Virginia shifted.

it was shifting prior to Obama, as well, with Jim Webb winning the senate there in 2006 and the Democrats holding the governor's mansion from 2002 through 2010.

Obama nudged it but the fact Biden is likely to win it by a larger margin than Obama ever did tells you its shift was real and not just due to Obama.

[dsc]

24. Obama helped a little

but VA is crazy blue at this point. In 2009, a year after Obama won VA elected a GOP governor by 17 points, then in 2013 Dems won by less than 2, then in 2017 they won by close to 9. That is a 26 point change. Dems won the assembly despite a very well gerrymandered map by the GOP (they had to win the legislative vote by over 10 points to do it). Dems have won every state wide election since 2013. VA was a true battle ground in 2008. It won't be for quite some time now.

[Awsi Dooger]

16. Outliers and emphasis

Kerry really didn't contest Virginia in 2004. The state took on added emphasis after the Webb/Allen result in 2006.

Regardless, I don't favor one example among hundreds. Obviously this is somewhat similar. Hillary gave some attention to Arizona but nothing like Biden has, and likewise jump started by a friendly senate result in the prior midterm.

Virginia plummeted from 38% conservatives in 2004 to 33% in 2008. I have noted that example countless times. Getting that number down to 37% or below is crucial. The problem in Arizona is that the percentage of self-identified conservatives has shown no sign of plunging like that. It was 41% in 2016 and then still 40% in 2018. Contrast to Virginia which had already taken the stepladder drop from 38% conservatives in 2004 to 35% in that Webb/Allen midterm senate race of 2006.

I think Biden can win Arizona narrowly. But I never bought into any type of high margin, due to that percentage of conservatives.

[Drunken Irishman]

21. You claimed states don't shift that quickly...

I was only pointing to Virginia as an example that shows it can happen. Sorry, but you didn't state, "most of the time..." you made a claim like it never happens. Virginia is an example of it happening.

Another example is Colorado, which may be a good example of what is in store for Arizona. While Colorado did go Democratic in 1992, the first time since 1964, it reverted back to the Republicans in 1996.

Dole won it by +1 in 1996
Bush won it by +8 in 2000
Bush won it by +5 in 2004
Obama won it by +9 in 2008

It's gone Democratic ever since and, like Virginia, it's a state Biden will likely win by double-digits this election.

But the shift was 14 points between 2004 & 2008.

Typically that's how these states shift: their shift takes place in a realigning election that favors one candidate by a significant margin than another. In 2004, Kerry did worse in the popular vote and EC than Gore four years ago but did better in Colorado and Virginia (well about the same). He didn't flip those states, though, because the national landscape wasn't enough to do so. But once they flipped, they became reliably blue states and it's becoming increasingly unlikely a Republican presidential nominee will win either.

Something similar happened with California, Vermont and New Hampshire in 1992. These three states, the latter two especially, were Republican leaning. Prior to Clinton's win in 1992, the last Democrat to win California in a presidential election was LBJ in 1964. But, like Arizona, it was still trending away from the Republicans. Despite Reagan seeing a surge of support between 1980 and 1984, his margin in California actually remained the same both elections (16), and then in 1988, his VP, won the state by only a little over three-points, despite an electoral college and popular vote blowout. But it wasn't enough to flip it...until Bill Clinton came along in 1992.

My point? The outliers and exceptions you suggest typically are how states flip from one party to the next. And it's a result of a lopsided election cycle that typically moves those states from soft Republican to Democratic. I think Arizona is ripe for that movement, as was Colorado in the 2000s and (to a lesser extent, New Mexico & Nevada).

Again, I don't think Biden leads by nine-plus, but it would not surprise me if he wins the state by 5%. That would only be an 8 point shift from 2016, less than Colorado and Virginia between 2004 and 2008.

[Marthe48]

25. California went for Nixon

I was looking for something else, and saw that. Really something.

[Awsi Dooger]

28. You didn't address the self-identified conservative aspect at all

That was the centerpiece of my post. It is always the key element of my posts. Everything changes once that number drops to 37% or lower.

Everything. The floodgates open. It is incompetence by the mainstream media and also the political analysts never to focus on that aspect.

Colorado always had low number of conservatives. It was sheer ignorance for Democrats not to prioritize that state sooner. I posted that here and elsewhere. Colorado was just sitting there at low to mid 30s throughout. It was already well below the pivotal 37% barrier in 2004, when there were only 35% conservatives in Colorado. The math totally changes in that range because you only need a manageable percentage of moderates, and not the extreme burden of moderate percentage once it's into the 40s and especially 42% or above.

This is not a Virginia or Colorado situation. Virginia in 2004 was 38% conservatives. Colorado was 35%. Arizona in 2016 was 41%. That is a totally different world in terms of opportunity for the dam to burst open. As I emphasized in my prior post, I'd be a believer in higher Biden margin if Arizona dropped to let's say 38% conservatives in 2018. Instead it barely nudged down to 40%, and in a similarly heavy-blue cycle.

The Dole example is not relevant at all. I wrote states do not shift blue that quickly. They certainly can shift red that quickly, like all the examples from 2016. They can shift red in a hurry because the ideological high number is on that side. The swing states are swing states because they have that range of 6-12% more conservatives than liberals. Arizona 2016 still had 14% higher -- 41% to 27%.

Let's put it this way...if Biden does win Arizona big it will be short term and overhyped toward where the state really stands.

[Drunken Irishman]

29. I addressed your point that states never shift Democratic that quickly.

I showed you examples of this happening.

[JonLP24]

38. Arizona is trending in the right direction

Flagstaff & Tucson are solid blue. Maricopa County is usually the largest metro area the GOP wins in a Presidential year and recently they have been barely winning it even with McCain on the top of the ticket. If Trump is losing the suburbs I don't see he can win Arizona. Plus the state is becoming more diverse and with younger people entering the electorate every cycle.

[dsc]

26. One big thing though is that AZ has a changing electorate

It is becoming more Hispanic and less White which is why we are seeing gains. It is also, unique to this cycle, a problem for Trump because of how many seniors it has. Trump is doing vastly worse among seniors than any GOP candidate has in ages. McCain won seniors by 8 points in 2008. Trump is losing them. Gore is the last Democrat to win seniors. He won them by 4. If Biden's lead among seniors holds it could easily move AZ by several points as AZ is one of the oldest states in the union.

[Vivienne235729]

34. AZ has been movimg to purple for quite some time. Sinema beat McSally for senate

Our demographics are changing bc Californians are coming here in droves. All elections run through Maricopa County. That was McCain country and it went blue for Sinema. Cindy McCain came out to support Biden. Phx Republicans and super PACS are pushing HARD for Biden right now. This is why Biden is up by +5 and Kelly is up by double digits (maybe 8 now). It is no coincidence that AZ is poised to go blue.

[Eid Ma Clack Shaw]

10. My only concern is the fake email "scandal"

Which is NOT about getting extra votes for Trump, but peeling them away from Biden. Combined with voter suppression & rejected ballots, it could be a difference maker in states like PA and Florida. Now that far, far, far-right freak Glenn Greenwald is yammering on about it on Fox and to his moronic progressive readership who still think he’s one of them.

[Fiendish Thingy]

14. The Post story is going absolutely nowhere nt

[Windy City Charlie]

17. Respectfully disagree

They're not doing it so much to peel Biden voters or undecideds away. What they're trying to do is to fire up their base and get them energized to vote. For some reason, the Trump campaign seems to think a percentage of their base isn't going to bother to vote, and they're trying to come up with ways for the non-voting base to become angry so that they vote. Again, for some reason, the Trump campaign appears to be going with the strategy that if they can get enough of their base to vote, that that's all they'll need for Trump to get re-elected.

[dem4decades]

18. The right wing echo chamber seems to be the only ones carrying on about it.

The real news is dissecting it and exposing its falsehoods.

[Awsi Dooger]

20. I wonder what the 538 percentage would be

If Nate Silver used these numbers alone?

Lower than 87%. That's why the Biden camp is cautioning.

Where did you get the chart? I can't find a link

[Drunken Irishman]

22. It was in their grassroots session yesterday with the campaign manager.

It was hard to read due to the fact it was streaming but someone pulled it and I was able to get the results.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. I would think good internal polling would be small c conservative.

[USALiberal]

30. Link to source? nt

[Drunken Irishman]

31. There is no source. It was pulled from a video with Jen O'Malley Dillon, Biden's campaign manager...

The video cannot be reviewed. It was yesterday. She showed this map to grassroots supporters.

[USALiberal]

32. OK, cool, thanks!! nt

[grantcart]

37. Great catch

[SpankMe]

33. This don't mean dick.

Hillary was up until election day, and then the great shock.

DO NOT COUNT YOUR CHICKENS BEFORE THEY'RE HATCHED. DON'T UNDERESTIMATE THE TRECHURY AND EVIL OF THE RIGHT.

Don't become complacent. Vote. And embarrass your friends into voting.

[IronLionZion]

36. Texas needs to be a swing state

That would be so sweet, and it's closer than some others like Ohio, North Carolina, that Obama won.

[SayItLoud]

39. A 5 point MOE is close enough for tRUMP to cheat his way to a win. IMO. NT

[radius777]

40. PA is clearly the most important state.

Newsweek: If We Don't Win in Pennsylvania, 'We Are So Screwed,' Biden Insider Says
The tipping point, sources within the campaign say, was a September 26 ABC News/Washington Post poll showing much softer support among the state's Biden voters than among those backing Trump. Echoing the campaign's own disquieting internal data, the survey found that, despite an overall nine-point lead for the former VP, only 51 percent of Biden backers were "very enthusiastic" about their candidate vs. 71 percent of those who supported Trump. That "rang the alarm," a top Biden insider says.

It's a state with the mail-in voting uncertaintly, the registration of white rural voters being higher, etc. But we did win recent statewide races there, and are running a strong campaign (Lincoln Project running tough ads) there this time in a way that we did not last time. Biden was also born in PA and was the longtime Senator from a neighboring state.

But clearly there is something going on in the Sunbelt (AZ, TX, GA, NC). I could see a scenario where we win some of those states and for some crazy reason lose PA even though 538's 'snake' would indicate otherwise.

I just have a feeling Texas is going to shock the world. Biden is polling closer in TX than Trump polled in the Midwest last time. If there is a polling error in Biden's favor he could easily win Texas.

[Rstrstx]

45. One sunbelt state can replace PA

As long as MI and WI flip back. The smallest sunbelt state that’s up for grabs, AZ, would suffice if we pick up NE-02 as well. I have a better feeling about AZ than GA or FL. Democrats have tended to overperform their polling numbers in places like AZ and NV the past few years while the same cannot be said of eastern states.

Having said that, the Trafalgar group tends to model the best case scenarios for Republicans and they have Biden up in MI, WI and PA. They notably got PA and MI right in 2016 but missed NV.

Also, wasn’t polling for Biden weaker in late September than it is today?

[RicROC]

41. 3 states to watch on Election night.

if Florida OR Georgia OR Ohio go for Biden, let the party begin!

[jb5150]

42. As a Floridian, I am cautiously optimistic ...

DeathSantis is doing everything he can to rig this one ... turnout has to be high, historically high, they will steal anything less ..

[RandySF]

43. It's too close to call.

It's too close to call...It's too close to call.....It's too close to call.......It's too close to call....It's too close to call....It's too close to call.

[George II]

44. I reviewed the map and had two scenarios this morning...

Pessimistically I had Biden with 274 Electoral Votes, optimistically I had him with 368. Anywhere between those two is fine with me, preferably leaning toward the optimistic one.