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Sun Oct 18, 2020, 11:58 AM

I was comparing Nate's forecast and aggregates to Biden's internal polls

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/



https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214306238



They are reasonably close. You can plug in the state you want. At a glance GA stands out. Biden's internals are higher than Nate's average. The others look good.

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Reply I was comparing Nate's forecast and aggregates to Biden's internal polls (Original post)
DemocratSinceBirth Sunday OP
GusBob Sunday #1
Zeus69 Sunday #2
GusBob Sunday #10
bucolic_frolic Sunday #3
ProfessorGAC Sunday #4
bucolic_frolic Sunday #5
ProfessorGAC Sunday #6
bucolic_frolic Sunday #7
helpisontheway Sunday #8
Demsrule86 Sunday #9

Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 12:03 PM

1. I have taken recent interest in a new forecaster

Rachel Bitecofer she accurately predicted 2018 results

Her models are based on negative partinsonship = not voting for someone but against the other

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Response to GusBob (Reply #1)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 12:07 PM

2. Her latest updates appear to be over a month old

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Response to Zeus69 (Reply #2)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 02:30 PM

10. Good question I dont know

I get the impression she is resting on her laurels a bit. Seems as if she made up her mind this past summer. She has hooked up with the Niskanen Center and the Lincoln Project
Doing podcasts and etc trying to build up her cred

She has a thing about hyper partinsonship in her methodology which makes sense these days

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 12:25 PM

3. I read the article about Pollster methodology changing

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-pollsters-have-changed-since-2016-and-what-still-worries-them-about-2020/

What worries me is cell phones. OK, pollsters use them but can't random dial them, they use text polls in inner cities for cell phones. What about Trump's base? Rural, uneducated whites, tradesmen, often itinerant, who basically operate from a pickup truck and a cell phone, perhaps even a pay-as-you-go? They're all building houses and maintaining them. They don't answer the phone, they're working all day. There are legions of them. This could give Trump a 2% jolt in some states, and they may be missed by pollsters.

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #3)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 12:30 PM

4. Why Can't They Random Dial Cellphones?

I get robocalls regularly, often for "expiration" of protection packages we've never had.

And, even if it were something in the past, I didn't get this number until I retired. Anything more than 22 months ago would have had the old, company cellphone number.

Seems pretty random, to me.

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Response to ProfessorGAC (Reply #4)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 12:44 PM

5. From the context it's illegal, at least for pollsters.

Those calls you get are from telemarketing operators who disguise their phone numbers or switch frequently.

I worked as a telemarketer very briefly. I wasn't very good at it. But there was one experienced guy who could make himself sound official at every point. He made a living from it.

"Attention! Attention! Your auto warranty is expiring!" or "This is your last chance to meet the deadline for expired healthcare!" or "Your utility has authorized us to save you MONEY!"

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #5)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 01:19 PM

6. Ha! I Get All 3!

You described 90% of the nuisance calls I get.
Wouldn't it be hard to enforce the legal issue with pollsters who are ultimately providing a public service?

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Response to ProfessorGAC (Reply #6)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 01:24 PM

7. Dunno. LE loves enforcing laws even if they make no sense. It's good for business.

Oh, and many calls originate outside the U.S.

My landline is useless because 99% of calls are nuisance calls. I leave it off the hook.

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Response to ProfessorGAC (Reply #4)


Response to ProfessorGAC (Reply #4)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 01:35 PM

9. You don't waste time generally calling GOP types, you call your own people and have their

phone number usually.

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