My State by State Projections

[Rule of Claw]

Any questions on each state just ask! I have Joe winning all of these.

PA 52-46

MI 54-45

WI 53-46

MN 54-45

NC 50-49

GA 53-45

FL 52-46

OH 49.5-48.5

IA 50-48

TX 51-48

AZ 52-47

National 54-44.

I don't believe third parties go over 2. If it is two it will likely split equally. These are my projections for election day these do not conflict with internals because most of the undecideds in polling are people of color and my projections fall within their MOE.

[oswaldactedalone]

1. From your projections

to God’s ears. Meanwhile, I’m in my boots. GOTV everyone and vote early if you can.

[Lochloosa]

2. I think you are off on FL...but I hope not.

[grantcart]

3. Pretty good except GA.WE probably miss it by 3

TX will be closer but we might take it by a point

[Zeus69]

4. Winning OH, IA and TX?!

NT

[Mike 03]

5. I love these posts of yours. Everybody is going to ask you about Texas, though.

You have a knack for this.

That's pretty ambitious for Florida too (the margins for FL and GA are just so large). But I would love you to be right.

[Rule of Claw]

7. Thanks.

Baseline white vote needed in GA is 29 right now he is mid-thirties.

34 in Texas. I expect the final break to be against the incumbent. I also expect Joe to take the big four of Big D, Dallas and Tarrant huge, Collin and Denton in shockers.

But it is close.

But I have looked at polling and what stood out the most was that Texas polls showed a more white electorate than 2016 even, and no information about the vote agrees with that. But we do know Latinos in the valley are Spanish speaking and hard to reach.

The other factor is that in 2018 Cruz underperformed polls by 2.4 percent. Mix that with high energy, swinging suburbs, and highly educated voter shifts in DFW exurbs I come up with Joe by 3.

[Mike 03]

6. Do you have a prediction for Maine by any chance?

Just curious. Trump's campaign has some idea they are going to win ME.

[Rule of Claw]

8. Joe will win Maine

ME-02 close but narrowly to Joe by 2.

[Rule of Claw]

10. GA is about a 60 percent white electorate.

AA's should be at least 30 percent of the electorate. Joe will likely carry 92 percent of that. But say 90. That is 27.

Another 10 percent is Latino and Asian. Say 65 percent of that. That is 33.5

Currently Joe is winning 36 percent of whites. Say that drops to 32. That is 19.2 or 52.7. Hillary got 21 with whites, but again, the college educated whites, especially women, have shifted dramatically.

He needs 29 with whites to win W/O Kemp issues.

Now TX is similar to GA but even less white. However it is more Hispanic than AA so Joe needs a higher percentage of white vote.

I project the electorate to be 60 percent white, 25 percent Latino, 5 percent Asian, 10 percent AA. Latinos in TX tend more conservative but 70 percent is reachable. That is 17.5 70 percent of Asian vote that is 3.5 and .93 for AAs. That totals 30 percent. That makes 50.7. Now anything above 36 with whites is almost a lock. Then even if he got 63 percent with Hispanics at 36 with whites he gets to 50.35.