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Sun Oct 18, 2020, 04:50 PM

Dr. Osterholm: "The next 6 to 12 weeks are going to be the darkest of the entire pandemic."



Tweet text:Jesse Rodriguez
@JesseRodriguez
Dr. Michael Osterholm, Dir. of Ctr for Infectious Disease Research at the U. of Minn. on @MeetThePress: “The next 6 to 12 weeks are going to be the darkest of the entire pandemic. Vaccines will not become available in any meaningful way until early to 3rd quarter of next year.”
1:35 PM · Oct 18, 2020

30 replies, 1574 views

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Reply Dr. Osterholm: "The next 6 to 12 weeks are going to be the darkest of the entire pandemic." (Original post)
Nevilledog Oct 18 OP
Hekate Oct 18 #1
moondust Oct 18 #2
Blue Owl Oct 18 #3
LastDemocratInSC Oct 18 #29
WSHazel Oct 18 #4
Botany Oct 18 #7
LuckyLib Oct 18 #11
WSHazel Oct 18 #12
LuckyLib Oct 18 #14
LuckyLib Oct 18 #15
Blue_true Oct 18 #20
Botany Oct 18 #23
WSHazel Oct 18 #25
Laelth Oct 18 #8
Pobeka Oct 18 #28
Duppers Monday #30
Botany Oct 18 #5
JI7 Oct 18 #10
roamer65 Oct 18 #6
WSHazel Oct 18 #13
roamer65 Oct 18 #16
WSHazel Oct 18 #18
roamer65 Oct 18 #22
Blue_true Oct 18 #21
DrToast Oct 18 #9
Thekaspervote Oct 18 #17
WSHazel Oct 18 #19
Blue_true Oct 18 #24
Quixote1818 Oct 18 #27
Quixote1818 Oct 18 #26

Response to Nevilledog (Original post)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 05:01 PM

1. Honesty is appreciated, Doc, but aw crap

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Response to Nevilledog (Original post)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 05:03 PM

2. Italy set a new record yesterday

for number of new cases. Nine cities in France now have curfews due to rising number of cases. U.K. set a new record in the past few days.

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Response to Nevilledog (Original post)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 05:08 PM

3. The Trump Virus

n/t

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Response to Blue Owl (Reply #3)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 07:04 PM

29. You are correct.

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Response to Nevilledog (Original post)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 05:11 PM

4. We still don't know anything

The most complete failure of leadership in this whole pandemic is our failure to get any meaningful or useful data about any aspect of this. Other than generally knowing that old and/or obese people are more likely to have severe cases, we don't know anything. We should have been capturing detailed data about every aspect of every case and running regressions against every knowable factor to find trends and correlations. That is how one solves problems. Right now we have nothing.

Maybe Osterholm is right, or maybe he is talking out his ass. I agree that the vaccine trials are struggling, 3rd quarter next year could be 3rd quarter 2022 or 2023 or 2030 for all we know. If he is saying that the next 6-12 weeks will be worse than the beginning, then that means about 30,000 deaths a day. In the beginning, NYC was generating 700 deaths a day by itself, so if the next 6-12 weeks are going to be worse, then Osterholm is predicting (330 million Americans / 8 million New Yorkers * 700 deaths a day) 28,875 deaths a day. Is that really what Osterholm is saying? Or is Osterholm just making unhelpful dramatic statements to get himself on TV?

Every time an "expert" like Osterholm says the sky is falling, and it doesn't, it feeds the Covid Hoaxers. We need to be right about this stuff, and making unspecific but histrionic predictions reduces the chances of us being right. If he is going to say the sky is falling, he needs to be specific about EXACTLY what that looks like.

https://www.businessinsider.com/infectious-disease-osterholm-darkest-weeks-of-pandemic-2020-10

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Response to WSHazel (Reply #4)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 05:17 PM

7. Troll much? ..Every time an "expert" like Osterholm

From wiki

Early life and education[edit]
Michael Osterholm was born in Waukon, Iowa, the son of a newspaper photographer.[4] According to Osterholm, his father was a physically abusive alcoholic.[4]

Osterholm graduated in 1975 with a B.A. in biology and political science from Luther College.[5] Osterholm received his M.S. and Ph.D. in environmental health, and his M.P.H. in epidemiology from the University of Minnesota.

Career[edit]
From 1975 to 1999, Osterholm served in various roles at the Minnesota Department of Health (MDH), including as state epidemiologist and Chief of the Acute Disease Epidemiology Section from 1984 to 1999. While at the MDH, Osterholm strengthened the department's role in infectious disease epidemiology, notably including numerous foodborne disease outbreaks, the association between tampons and toxic shock syndrome, and the transmission of hepatitis B and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in healthcare workers. Other work included studies regarding the epidemiology of infectious diseases in child-care settings, vaccine-preventable diseases (particularly Haemophilus influenzae type b and hepatitis B), Lyme disease, and other emerging and re-emerging infections.[6]

From 2001 through early 2005, Osterholm, in addition to his role at CIDRAP, served as a Special Advisor to then–Department of Health and Human Services (HSS) Secretary Tommy G. Thompson on issues related to bioterrorism and public health preparedness. In April 2002, Osterholm was appointed to the interim management team to lead the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), until the eventual appointment of Julie Gerberding as director in July 2002. Osterholm was asked by Thompson to assist Gerberding on his behalf during the transition period. He filled that role through January 2003.[6] Osterholm was appointed by Mike Leavitt, Secretary of the HHS, to the National Science Advisory Board on Biosecurity in 2005.[6]

Osterholm is a frequently invited guest lecturer on the topic of epidemiology of infectious diseases. He serves on the editorial boards of nine journals, including Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology and Microbial Drug Resistance: Mechanisms, Epidemiology and Disease, and he is a reviewer for 24 additional journals, including the New England Journal of Medicine, the Journal of the American Medical Association, and Science.[6] In March 2020, he appeared on The Joe Rogan Experience to discuss the COVID-19 pandemic.[7]

Osterholm was the principal investigator and director of the National Institutes of Health (NIH)-supported Minnesota Center of Excellence for Influenza Research and Surveillance (2007–2014) and chaired the Executive Committee of the Centers of Excellence Influenza Research and Surveillance network.[8]

He is past president of the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists and has served on the CDC's National Center for Infectious Diseases Board of Scientific Counselors from 1992 to 1997. Osterholm served on the Institute of Medicine (IOM) Forum on Microbial Threats from 1994 through 2011. He has served on the IOM Committee on Emerging Microbial Threats to Health in the 21st Century and the IOM Committee on Food Safety, Production to Consumption, and he was a reviewer for the IOM Report on Chemical and Biological Terrorism. As a member of the American Society for Microbiology, Osterholm has served on the Committee on Biomedical Research of the Public and Scientific Affairs Board, the Task Force on Biological Weapons, and the Task Force on Antibiotic Resistance. He is a frequent consultant to the World Health Organization, the NIH, the Food and Drug Administration, the Department of Defense, and the CDC. He is a fellow of the American College of Epidemiology and the IDSA.[6]

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Response to Botany (Reply #7)


Response to Botany (Reply #7)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 05:34 PM

12. Osterholm is one of my "go to" experts on this

and he has been measured throughout, so I am well aware of his credentials. That makes it more disappointing to see him make a statement like you would hear from some random journalist in a seven person round table on CNN.

What does he mean when he says the next "6-12 weeks will be the darkest of the pandemic". I have a family member that works at a hospital in the tri state area, and March and April were an absolute horror show. If he is really saying that we are returning to that, but nationwide, then we as a society should have a full lockdown immediately. Like before 6 pm EDT today and have it last for 2 months.

Was that what he is saying? If not, then why did he say it?


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Response to Botany (Reply #7)


Response to Botany (Reply #7)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 05:40 PM

15. In an Obama administration when the flag went up for

a pandemic, Osterholm would have been one of the first five specialists to sit down to develop a plan. He is a first class scientist.

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Response to Botany (Reply #7)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 05:59 PM

20. It is ok to disagree with the poster, but implying trolling was over the top.

I do believe that even knowledgeable people being off on predictions feed the fire of the people that claim all of this is not a big deal.

Science isn’t an exact thing, people will be wrong on projections or even educated expectations. But one thing that time has proven true is that Science and the methodology underlying it are faraway superior to anything else.

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Response to Blue_true (Reply #20)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 06:07 PM

23. Calling Dr. Mike "an expert" is flat out trolling.

n/t

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Response to Botany (Reply #23)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 06:16 PM

25. I am a big boy

and you can call me whatever you want, but you are wrong about the trolling. I have about 6 posts in this thread explaining my position in detail. You are doubling down on name calling. Who is the troll?

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Response to WSHazel (Reply #4)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 05:18 PM

8. He might be wrong.

The Fall/Winter of 2021 might be even worse.

We really have no clue at this point.

-Laelth

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Response to WSHazel (Reply #4)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 06:48 PM

28. Baloney. We knew *A LOT* in spring 2020 how to prevent the spread.

Social distance.
Wear a mask.
Wash your hands.
Quarantine/isolate when exposed or infected.

While that is not a full blown remedy, it is what successful countries with leaders concerned about public health and educated populations have done.

And -- with extremely low to no cases, guess what -- the real economy can roll along while they wait for a vaccine.

What we have in the USA is a level of ignorance, politicization of information and outright misinformation that 1) makes your head spin, 2)the virus spread, and 3) kills the economy because we can never get the cases down to near zero so we can truly open up.

And those 4 things, if respected and implemented by the entire population of the USA, would get the cases to nearly zero in just 4 to 6 weeks.

The first 3 things, are of almost no consequence to daily actions. Once you get to near zero cases, you can open up greatly on social distancing and get the economy rolling again.

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Response to Pobeka (Reply #28)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 03:40 PM

30. 👍 +100

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Response to Nevilledog (Original post)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 05:13 PM

5. But what about Hillary's emails?

Fuck it! I am pissed! No reason in God's green earth we should be going through this shit. But no Russian
Trump and company, Mitch McConnell & Paul Ryan, and others and to fuck with the election and install
Trump who got rid of all "the black guy's ideas" which would have stopped the virus in China.


We are looking @ > 400,000 dead by Jan. 1, 2021.

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Response to Botany (Reply #5)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 05:20 PM

10. McConnell responds to this with his laughing

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Response to Nevilledog (Original post)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 05:15 PM

6. October 1918 - June 1919.

Second and third waves hit the United States hard.

Four waves in total between January 1918 and December 1920.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Deadly_second_wave_of_late_1918

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Response to roamer65 (Reply #6)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 05:38 PM

13. The difference with COVID-19

is that it hasn't hit in waves. It has just started, and never stopped. There is not a lot of data that it is seasonal. The boost in cases in the fall appears to be pretty tightly correlated to the return of kids to school. Shutting down the schools is a choice we can make.

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Response to WSHazel (Reply #13)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 05:46 PM

16. It slowed in the summer like the 1918 flu.

Now we are going to see the second wave. Schools should have never reopened for in person learning.

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Response to roamer65 (Reply #16)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 05:49 PM

18. Covid exploded over the summer in the Sun Belt

It slowed a little at the end of August, and then picked up again once school started. A coronavirus and an influenza virus are different kinds of viruses. One is not the other.

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Response to WSHazel (Reply #18)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 06:06 PM

22. Fact of the matter is the next few months are going to be hell.

Regardless of epidemiological patterns. These viruses, however, do follow general patterns based on our behaviors towards them.

Wash hands, wear masks and for god sakes people...avoid closed rooms with other people unless absolutely necessary.

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Response to roamer65 (Reply #6)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 06:05 PM

21. The thing about that data is the first wave was likely the spreading wave.

The virus spread to all parts of the country, then started really killing.

SARS-COV-2 has now spread to all parts of the country. The amount of death will depend upon several factors, two of which is how deeply it is embedded in each town and city, and how good medical facilities are in those places.

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Response to Nevilledog (Original post)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 05:20 PM

9. This may happen, BUT

This doctor had made some pretty outlandish predictions that have not come to pass. So just FYI

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Response to DrToast (Reply #9)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 05:47 PM

17. Links please!

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Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #17)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 05:53 PM

19. For one thing, Osterholm said the virus was not going to be seasonal

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200805/experts-say-covid_-snt-seasonal-and-will-rage

Now he is saying it is. Which is it?

I read a lot about his earlier assertion that this virus was not going to be seasonal, and it made a lot of sense. Now he has back-tracked.

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Response to WSHazel (Reply #19)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 06:09 PM

24. He didn't contradict himself on the point that he made.

SARS-COV-2 can not be seasonal AND infect more people during a particular season, due to the dynamics of whether people are in places where transmission is more efficient.

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Response to WSHazel (Reply #19)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 06:32 PM

27. I think you missed his point

He was suggesting that just because it was summer didn't mean it would not keep going strong and he was correct. It's expected to keep going into the winter and cases to expand. That is not "seasonal" it just means it hits year round but can be heavier in the colder months. Seasonal would mean it dies down to almost nothing in the summer which it didn't.

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Response to DrToast (Reply #9)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 06:26 PM

26. Care to share a link? He has been pretty spot on actually. nt

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