General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsIs RealClearPolitics trying to make things looks tighter in Pennsylvania??
Link to tweet
Why is the Reuters poll of Likely Voters ending 10/11 excluded? The MoE? Well, others just below ended at the same date as the last 2 included had 2 polls w/MoE LOWER than those included
Biden +5.9 in last 10 polls
Fiendish Thingy
(15,601 posts)Indykatie
(3,696 posts)I heard Nate Silver comment on this a couple of weeks ago. I actually like that because it understates Biden's lead. I feel the same about Rassmussen which has a strong Repub lean. I figure Biden is doing at least 3 points better than whatever their result is.
Roland99
(53,342 posts)even they are having trouble hiding Biden's lead
Thekaspervote
(32,762 posts)Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Compare their final average in 2016 to 538's final projection:
In Pennsylvania, RCP had Clinton winning 46.8-44.7 (+2.1), while 538 had Clinton winning 48.9-45.2 (+3.7). Hillary lost 47.5 to 48.2. RCP underestimated Clinton's total by .7 points, while 538 overestimated Clinton's total by 1.4. RCP underestimated Trump by 3.5. 538 underestimated Trump by 3. So, RCP actually was .5 worse for Trump but more in line with Hillary's total than 538 in Pennsylvania.
In Wisconsin, RCP had Clinton winning 46.8-40.3 (+6.5), while 538 had Clinton winning 49.6-44.3 (+5.3). Hillary lost 46.5-47.2. So, the margins were closer than RCP's, which favored a bigger Clinton win. However, RCP overestimated Clinton's support by just .3 points, while 538 overestimated it by 3.1 points.
I hate to say it, but I'll default to RCP most the time because I think they've proven pretty accurate.
Case in point: the final RCP 2016 Florida average had Trump winning the state 48.6-47.4. He won it 47-46.6. 538 had Hillary a 55% favorite, and winning it 48.1-47.5. Close, of course, but 538 overestimated Hillary's support by 1.5, while RCP overestimated it by just .08.
RCP's average is pretty dang accurate, IMO, despite the crap it gets.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Compare their final average in 2016 to 538's final projection:
In Pennsylvania, RCP had Clinton winning 46.8-44.7 (+2.1), while 538 had Clinton winning 48.9-45.2 (+3.7). Hillary lost 47.5 to 48.2. RCP underestimated Clinton's total by .7 points, while 538 overestimated Clinton's total by 1.4. RCP underestimated Trump by 3.5. 538 underestimated Trump by 3. So, RCP actually was .5 worse for Trump but more in line with Hillary's total than 538 in Pennsylvania.
In Wisconsin, RCP had Clinton winning 46.8-40.3 (+6.5), while 538 had Clinton winning 49.6-44.3 (+5.3). Hillary lost 46.5-47.2. So, the margins were closer than RCP's, which favored a bigger Clinton win. However, RCP overestimated Clinton's support by just .3 points, while 538 overestimated it by 3.1 points.
I hate to say it, but I'll default to RCP most the time because I think they've proven pretty accurate.
Case in point: the final RCP 2016 Florida average had Trump winning the state 48.6-47.4. He won it 47-46.6. 538 had Hillary a 55% favorite, and winning it 48.1-47.5. Close, of course, but 538 overestimated Hillary's support by 1.5, while RCP overestimated it by just .08.
helpisontheway
(5,007 posts)Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)From what I can remember, RCP never allows one pollster to double-dip.
Reuters/Ipsos just released a poll today that had Biden +4, which was a narrowing from their last poll where he led by +7.
It would not have been excluded if it was a completely different polling outfit. But because it's the same, they dropped the last one. It's why RCP also doesn't include a week-plus worth of tracking poll results in their national averages.
If you look at their national results, you'll see they only count the IBD/TIPP once - despite the fact it's a daily poll.
Roland99
(53,342 posts)Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Florida has more polls in their average than Pennsylvania right now.
But Nevada only has five - but the oldest poll was from September.