Why is Trump making a surprise recovery in the betting markets?

[Doodley]

If you have been following WH2020 polling you’ll be aware that the numbers are still very much with Biden at both a national and a state level.

But this is not being reflected in the current betting. What is the biggest political gambling event of all time as is shown in the Smarkets chart above and as can be seen the gap is closing.

https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/10/19/trump-making-surprise-recovery-in-the-wh2020-betting-even-though-most-pollsters-have-double-digit-biden-leads/


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[denbot]

1. Because only idiots would bet on him.

D’uh.

[soothsayer]

2. I don't understand that either

Don’t like it

[Rule of Claw]

4. Here-

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election

Almost no movement on Predictit.

[soothsayer]

5. Ok thanks

[sunonmars]

3. Any fool knows, biggest return would be betting on Trump right now for a fluke win

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

14. Yeah, right...

They are betting on the long shot, just like people do with horse races. Gamblers love that kind of thing. They like to bet on the long shot because it would be a thrill if they got lucky and won big time. Betting for the likely winner is the boring, safe bet.

[ProfessorGAC]

6. Because The Books Aren't Predicting Outcomes

They're trying to draw money from both sides. A blow out attracts little money from the side sure to lose.
Every see the line on a game between Alabama and some div 2 school doing a money grab and letting their students get pounded?
They set that line at AL at -48 or -52. Absolutely nobody would bet the game on the other side otherwise. The book would take all money in on Alabama and lose it all. So, they set a line to attract money on both sides minimizing their risk of loss & maximizing their profit.
This is no different.
They go out with 538 odds of 88:11, and they won't even attract money at 8:1, because in a binary bet, few will put money on the severe underdog. So, they adjust their odds to attract suckers either betting with their heart, or living with 5:1 when that's not a good bet.

[octoberlib]

7. Betting isn't voting and is meaningless.

Ignore it.

[Boogiemack]

8. It's stock market handlers making the bets so as to keep the stock market from shattering.

Just hold on. People are still voting. Find a trusted poll and stick with it.

[dewsgirl]

15. This is what I was thinking.

[sop]

9. ESPN:"Jets still attracting Super Bowl bets..."

"Money on the New York Jets to win the Super Bowl showed up last week at Las Vegas sportsbooks." Hope springs eternal I guess.

[N_E_1 for Tennis]

10. I place a one dollar bet...

On the Detroit Lions to win the Super Bowl every year. Winnings went to help purchase the next year’s tickets. Now guess it’s the savings account.

[gab13by13]

11. So, I thought it was illegal to vote on the election?

That's what I read when looking for Vegas odds. Vegas has Biden winning. Is the stock market allowed to bet on the election but not Vegas?

[kevink077]

12. Not a good indicator of anything...

People with unlimited cash can manipulate these numbers then make a killing betting then the other way. Betting markets should be taken with a grain of salt.

[mucifer]

13. supreme court