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Le Roi de Pot

(744 posts) Tue Oct 20, 2020, 07:26 AM Oct 2020

2

Does anyone have a conditional probability model for the national election?

It is possible to build a simple Bayesian network that will update posterior probabilities given partial information ..like say Biden wins PA and Asshole wins IA. Even a Näive Bayes model will be insightful and help us absorb information as it comes in.. or play around with scenarios.

3 replies

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Does anyone have a conditional probability model for the national election? (Original Post) Le Roi de Pot Oct 2020 OP

Does this interactive thing help? soothsayer Oct 2020 #1

That helps some...really shows PA is for Democrats what FL is for Republicans Le Roi de Pot Oct 2020 #2

cook political report website has one beachbumbob Oct 2020 #3

soothsayer

(38,601 posts)

1. Does this interactive thing help?

Reply to Le Roi de Pot (Original post)

Tue Oct 20, 2020, 07:33 AM

Oct 2020

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/electoral-college-interactive-maps

Le Roi de Pot

(744 posts)

2. That helps some...really shows PA is for Democrats what FL is for Republicans

Reply to soothsayer (Reply #1)

Tue Oct 20, 2020, 07:41 AM

Oct 2020

PA is a must win for us.

beachbumbob

(9,263 posts)

3. cook political report website has one

Reply to Le Roi de Pot (Original post)

Tue Oct 20, 2020, 08:26 AM

Oct 2020

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