In what universe is Biden up 1 in Ohio and only up 2 nationally?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Link to tweet

https://www.investors.com/news/trump-vs-biden-poll-race-tightens-like-2016-ibd-tipp-2020-presidential-poll/


Every poll is a data point, that's why. You will go crazy chasing individual polls. Just focus on the average.

[Dr. Jack]

1. Cherry picking polls?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. "Every poll is a data point, that's why."

[Statistical]

2. "Every poll is a data point" Exactly what matters ...

is the average and the trend. The trend is roughly flat for the last two weeks and the average is Biden up comfortably.

I don't think Biden wins by double digits (won't be sad if he does) but being up around 6 to 8 pts is huge. That is Obama's win in 2004 huge. 2004 wasn't a nailbiter it would a one sided defeat for the GOP.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. If we take take the OH poll at face value that's consistent with a 10 point Joe nat'l lead.

[Claustrum]

5. I am with you. I think the fundamental for this race has been 7-9 points since early in the year

Yes, Trump shot his own foot in the last few weeks but "republicans will fall back in line" is my reasoning for this thinking. So I always expected a "tightening" for a long time. But "tightening" in this sense is from the double digit lead back to a "7-9 points race" which isn't all that tight (at least on the national polls). State polling is a different story though.

[lagomorph777]

12. Biden's been above +10 for over two weeks at 538

A bit lower at RCP, but they are heavily right-wing.

[sarcasmo]

6. Biden wins the popular vote by 7 million and 308+ electoral votes.

This election will see the highest voter turnout ever, between 155 and 160 million voters.

[Rice4VP]

7. He's up 9 nationally per a NYT/Sienna poll

[BusyBeingBest]

8. In what universe is Trump doubling his support of young black voters?

That's what 538 is saying, and I cannot wrap my head around it.

[TheRealNorth]

10. It's something I worry about

Do we really know what type of misinformation they are targeting young POC with? It worked pretty well in 2016 to persuade them not to vote in key areas (like Milwaukee, Detroit)

[still_one]

9. In Rasmussen world

[lagomorph777]

11. Assmuffin is a waste of time

Ignore it.