538 moves the EC tipping point for Biden to...Ohio

[brooklynite]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Link to tweet

[Demsrule86]

1. Sorry not sure what that means?

[Celerity]

19. OH is NOT the tipping point to put Biden over 270, as I will clearly show

here is the listing



now I will make ALL of the following RED (that are Blue there)

Ohio
ME 2
North Carolina
Florida
Arizona
ME 2

PLUS I will even give Trump Nevada


this yields



Pennsylvania puts Biden over 270


therefore it is the tipping point

to put it into simple linear terms

if we win

PA
WI
MI
MN

and then win one of the following :

NH (or, far less likely, lose NH and win NV, or lose them both but flip AZ or NC, or, finally lose them ALL, all four, but flip NE-2 and ME-2)

its over

Trump has ZERO paths to win, as Colorado, Maine (overall) and Virginia are in the bag

[TwilightZone]

24. There's an easier way.

Just click "Tipping Points" which the OP obviously didn't do. It shows PA clearly in the lead.

[Claustrum]

2. Huh? tipping point is still PA if I am reading it correctly.

Tipping point state is the state that gives either candidate 270 EC votes which is still PA right now.

[sarcasmo]

3. If Biden wins Texas, Trump is toast.

[Claustrum]

4. Yes. Same as GA or OH. but that's not the definition of a tipping point state

Tipping point state is the state (according to state polling average) to gives 270 EC votes to the candidate, and according to the polling since early this year, that state is PA. MI>WI>PA all with 5-6 points for Biden.

[dawg day]

7. Does it matter if a state (like FL usually) reports early?

I mean, I want to know by 11pm Tues night so I can get to bed on time and sleep happily.

[Claustrum]

11. No one can predict what time each state is called. So that's not how the terminology is defined.

Once again, if FL, OH, or TX gets called on Nov. 3 night, we can be sure Biden will win. But that's not the definition of tipping point state. If Biden wins any of those 3, Biden is well onto 340+ EV.

[TwilightZone]

17. Correct.

[Fiendish Thingy]

5. That's not what that graphic means, tipping point is still PA, but OH is now lean Biden! Nt

[dawg]

6. Wrong terminology.

Pennsylvania is still the tipping point. That's the state most likely to put us over the top.

[Yonnie3]

8. Nope

Last edited Tue Oct 20, 2020, 06:20 PM - Edit history (1)

They merely made it lean blue in that display, but they say it is 50:50 elsewhere.

WRONG! Ohio is not listed in the states with a greater than 1% change of being the tipping point state.

Edit to add/correct the above. Ohio IS shown in that list with a 2.2% chance of being the tipping point state. Time to clean my bifocals.

[philf99]

9. Keeps moving

From Red to Blue back and forth.

538 predicts it will be the closest state in the country. Good news for Biden because he doesn’t need Ohio to win but could end trump’s hope with a win in Ohio

[Buckeye_Democrat]

15. It would be a nice win to help reduce anxiety.

For me, anyway.

The absentee ballots here are mostly counted before Nov. 3rd, so no long waits for that!

[getagrip_already]

10. Ohio is the party point, not the tipping point....

As others have noted. I don't give us a bafoons chance in ohio, but if it falls tues eve, I may not see weds. And I am fine with that.

[lagomorph777]

23. Yes, it's the tippling point.

[Laelth]

12. PA remains the "tipping point" state.

Ohio just moved into the “slightly-blue” column.

That’s how I read the 538 graph, in any event.



-Laelth

[Celerity]

20. yes, 100% correct

here is the complete breakdown

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214322123#post19

[getagrip_already]

13. Also from 538.....

Still, Trump has a meaningful chance per our forecast — a little worse than the chances of rolling a 1 on a six-sided die

We are betting the future of our country on the chances that a single roll of one die won't come up a 1.

If that doesn't get you to push people to the polls, put down the joint and wait a while.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

14. Oh, you mean they switched it to blue.

They have the "tipping points" button near the blue/red snake on that site, and PA is still the main tipping point for deciding the EC winner.

[TwilightZone]

16. PA is the tipping point. 27.4% vs. 2.3% for Ohio.

Click on "Tipping Points" to see the relative percentages.

[Statistical]

18. That isn't what tipping point means.

The line in the snake shows the tipping point. Right now that is PA. It is the state that puts Biden over 270 when states are ranked by margin. Meaning for Biden to lose he would need to lose PA and every state "above" it on the snake. Likewise for Trump to win he would need to win every state up to and including PA moving downward.

[RobinA]

21. The Problem Is

that PA can't even start counting mail-ins until Election Day, so I hope some other states will do their parts so we can know if we are doomed before next spring.

[Statistical]

22. Yeah Biden winning PA is the most direct path to the whitehouse but the good news is

there are other options. Biden could end up over 270 even with PA in limbo by winning FL or NC or AZ (plus NE-2). So ideally Biden is up so much that even though he wins PA that makes him 320 instead 300 EV.

Although it is the lowest chance the best opportunity for a clear and early victory if Biden winning FL. Trump really has no realistic chance of winning without FL. Here is a map leaving PA undecided, Biden winning FL and all other tossup states undecided.



To recover from losing FL. Trump would need to win PA, every tossup states and then somehow flip another 19 EV.