NC Voting Update: October 20

[moose65]

October 15 was the first day of Early Voting in NC. After the sites closed on Monday, October 19, here are the totals:

Mail-in ballots received: 641,445
Early voting (5 days): 1,212,094

Total: 1,853,539

Party breakdown of those who have voted:

Democratic: 833,735
Unaffiliated: 526,355
Republican: 486,672
Libertarian: 5,567
Green: 665
Constitution: 545

25.4% of registered voters have already voted! Two weeks to go!

Source: https://carolinaelections.com/votetracker/

[nycbos]

1. How you think the unaffiliated will break

[moose65]

2. It's anyone's guess, but...

Unaffiliated voters already outrank Republicans in NC. Younger voters are NOT registering with either party. They hate the GOP and the Dems aren't progressive enough for them.

Hopefully it will be about a 60-40 split in our favor!

[Drunken Irishman]

3. Unaffiliated went to Trump 53-37 according to 2016 NC exit polls.

I don't expect that to flip this go around but if Biden can cut that margin in half, he'll be in a good spot.

Based on 2016 exits, Biden is currently leading with 51% of the vote.

[unc70]

4. Probably slightly for GOP

In NC, older unaffiliated voters have been heavily white males and a majority have voted Repub. Younger and newly registering as unaffiliated tend to vote Dem. In the past, unaffiliated voters would split nearly 60-40 GOP. In the most recent elections, that gap has been narrowing rapidly. I assume it is still a 10+% gap favoring them.

[moose65]

6. So maybe 55-45 in their favor?

That would still mean a victory for us, I think

[unc70]

8. I'm assuming around 57-43

Why turnout is so important. Expect high turnout here for each party. Just how high is the key. From anecdotes and what I can personally see, our GOTV ground game is very efficient. In my own case, I was being bombarded with mail and txt pushing me to vote; after I early voted, it all stopped. Still getting requests for money.

Think it will be really close.

[SheltieLover]

5. Thx, Moose!

Great news!

[grobertj]

7. Here's one older white male who voted for Biden!

In Greensboro there are at least twice as many Biden signs as tRump.

[moose65]

9. Yay!!

Define "older"

I'm also white guy in my mid-fifties who voted for Biden.

[unc70]

11. You're still rather young

Not yet on Medicare seems young to me. (Lower 70s myself; not really that old?!)

[onetexan]

10. Woooopp!! K&R Bravo's NC'ers