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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums⚠️BREAKING--Huge CDC study says #COVID19 not only caused 285,000 excess deaths--
⚠️BREAKINGHuge CDC study says #COVID19 not only caused 285,000 excess deaths but CDC also found, surprisingly, that it has struck 25-44-year-olds very hard: Their excess death rate is up 26.5% over previous years, the largest change for any age group!
Link to tweet
?s=20
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-excess-deaths/2020/10/20/1e1d77c6-12e1-11eb-ba42-ec6a580836ed_story.html
Guy Whitey Corngood
(26,501 posts)underpants
(182,803 posts)Sherman A1
(38,958 posts)Very Sad Indeed.
livetohike
(22,143 posts)this .
GopherGal
(2,008 posts)This is just the type of analysis to disprove that Repuke talking point.
FBaggins
(26,737 posts)Can't see why this is "surprisingly"
The expected death rate for the 25-44 group is very low. So any change is likely to be a large percentage change.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,316 posts)25-44 was 3,886, compared to a 'normal' 2,353 to 2,687 from 2015-2019. 45-64 was 12,392 compared to 9,800 to 10,047.
So that's 1,366 more deaths compared to a 'typical' 2,520 - 55% more - for 25-44. For 45-64, 2,469 excess compared to 9,923 'typical' or 25% more.
As to why it's "surprising" - the initial estimates were that catching it would increase the death rates roughly equally across age groups - that catching it gave you about the same chance of dying as you would have had in the next 2 years of your life. Now, that could still be true - it might just mean the 25-44 year olds have recently been catching it at twice the rate that 45-63 year olds have, in the USA.
FBaggins
(26,737 posts)You wouldn't look at the data this way and say "hmm... surprising how high the 25-44 category is. Struck them VERY HARD!"
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muriel_volestrangler
(101,316 posts)Could you really say from that "25-44 was over 50% higher than normal at times"?
If you go to the CDC site, and select excess deaths by age, and exclude 65+ (so that the vertical scale is better suited to the lower groups - even exclude 45-64 so that it doesn't have to show above 4,000), you can see that better.
FBaggins
(26,737 posts)~25% of a small number is nowhere near as significant as 5-10% of a much higher baseline.
If you live to 25... you're almost certainly going to make it to 44. COVID doesn't change that. Having to ignore data from every category that IS significant so that you can "see" the impact sorta defeats the point.
I'd guess that there are about 75 million Americans in that age group. In an average period of this length, you would expect ~3,000 to die but it has been ~4,000. That isn't particularly shocking given a global pandemic. I think most in that age group would assume that the number would be higher.
stopdiggin
(11,306 posts)"Hard hit" is not an accurate characterization.
The story has enough weight and impact to stand up quite well without the hyperbole.
TheRickles
(2,063 posts)Here's the link: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
You can use the dashboard to focus on individual states or age ranges. A more recent version of Frodo's graph shows that total deaths in all age ranges are back to normal (I can't figure out how to post that image - sorry!).
The dilemma is that the Covid "cases" reported in the media are usually people with positive PCR tests, whether or not they have any symptoms. One recent study showed >85% of PCR positives being asymptomatic; the key question is how contagious they are. These uncertainties make it hard to sort out what's really happening regarding morbidity and mortality due to Covid.
FBaggins
(26,737 posts)It takes 2-3 weeks for the data to be finalized and that's on top of a short delay before data appears at all. Not on COVID deaths specifically... but this weekly figure is for ALL deaths.
Four weeks ago when the 9/5 bar first appeared, it was (like the current 10/3) well below the threshold for "excess" deaths. But you can see that it is now about 4,000 deaths above the line (roughly the counted COVID deaths for the same week).
So yes... the graph would probably surprise most who think that we're still in the second wave of the pandemic and that things are much worse. BUT it would also be incorrect to read the data as "back to normal"
liberalgunwilltravel
(326 posts)It represents ~1,098 excess deaths in that age group. If it were you or someone close to you, you might feel a bit different.
aidbo
(2,328 posts)Ron Obvious
(6,261 posts)When given percentages, ask for raw numbers. When given raw numbers, get the percentages.
We're so bad at assessing risks particularly when it comes to large numbers.
My favourite statistic is the one about the hundreds of people admitted to the emergency room annually for injuries involving bedding. It just proves that we live in a large country, not that bedding is dangerous.
bucolic_frolic
(43,161 posts)stillcool
(32,626 posts)during a pandemic makes people sick. It's only news, because of their age, not any particular behavior that got them dead.
liberalgunwilltravel
(326 posts)Why it was just a couple weeks ago that Dotard told us this disease affects practically nobody. I label this as fake news!
malaise
(268,997 posts)This is scary.
dchill
(38,489 posts)Even though I suspected the counts were artificially low.
malaise
(268,997 posts)Last edited Tue Oct 20, 2020, 03:52 PM - Edit history (1)
impossible - he's been right all along.
dchill
(38,489 posts)Botany
(70,504 posts)We will be passing WW II in the number killed in a few months.
dalton99a
(81,486 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)... so I won't say that.
SunSeeker
(51,554 posts)LastLiberal in PalmSprings
(12,586 posts)Fat Donnie told us so. Besides, he looks good on Fox News.
Squidly
(783 posts)has told me that the worst cases she has seen have been 30-somethings in perfect health
LymphocyteLover
(5,644 posts)and it's so tragic seeing someone so young be so sick
Ligyron
(7,632 posts)Yeah,of course he had world class medical care but idiots will still think gee, at his age with his lifestyle and diet he snaps back this quick? Why, it really is just like the flu.
and of course everyone here knows better, I'm just saying ...
NJCher
(35,669 posts)As we speak. The crazy talk is off the charts, even for him.
Zing Zing Zingbah
(6,496 posts)they aren't going to give to regular people.
calimary
(81,265 posts)So let him be the guinea pig then. Why not? Hes got the pig part down, already.
IronLionZion
(45,442 posts)This risky behavior should disproportionately impact his own supporters.
JCMach1
(27,558 posts)He took really do work/help some people.
I had everything but the cocktail. I can straight up say I probably would have passed away if I had caught the virus in March/April
Ligyron
(7,632 posts)We know some of his supporters are going to sicken and die copying his behavior. Such a shame for any sane members of their immediate family dealing with such a severe illness and then body disposal but I know some will probably be relieved it'll be the last of the ongoing nonsense they've no doubt been dealing with for years.
BlueWavePsych
(2,635 posts)oasis
(49,383 posts)JCMach1
(27,558 posts)Like a cracked egg
oasis
(49,383 posts)noneof_theabove
(410 posts)remember they play word salad math.
For an elderly person in assisted living or dementia/ALZ.
They get CV19 and then their kidneys fail.
Report is death by renal failure attributed to CV19.
That is still a CV19 death because they might have outlived the pandemic, which would be renal failure.
My dad, 89, passed 17 months ago after about 8 months in a ALZ Assisted Live Unit.
Death certificate read renal failure due to sever ALZ, ALZ did not get the count just simple death. BS!
nitpicker
(7,153 posts)(snip)
The coronavirus pandemic has left about 299,000 more people dead in the United States than would be expected in a typical year, two-thirds of them from covid-19 and the rest from other causes, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported Tuesday.
(snip)
Outside analyses, including some by The Washington Post and researchers at Yale University, have found two main causes for excess deaths. Many probably were the result of covid-19, although they were not recorded that way on death certificates. Others are probably the result of deaths at home or in nursing homes from heart attacks, diabetes, strokes and Alzheimers disease, among people afraid to seek care in hospitals or unable to get it.
(snip)
((And probably from some who had screening tests cancelled due to PPE/bed shortages that then later couldn't be saved.))
warmfeet
(3,321 posts)Shaping up to be a real rotter.
Cetacea
(7,367 posts)Even with a Harvard source, who reported that COVID was killing people in their twenties.
rocktivity
(44,576 posts)Cetacea
(7,367 posts)speaknow
(321 posts)cause of all the deaths is that POS in the WH.
He used the Covid-19 as his weapon and
he is still killing people every hour every day
that SOB.
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,853 posts)... will likely flee the country, later laughing with Putin about it.
calimary
(81,265 posts)Hell want to go where most never-trumpers cant reach him.
rocktivity
(44,576 posts)With our sloppy but profitable testing and quarantining procedures, we gave it carte blanche to mutate.
rocktivity