⚠️BREAKING--Huge CDC study says #COVID19 not only caused 285,000 excess deaths--

[kpete]

⚠️BREAKING—Huge CDC study says #COVID19 not only caused 285,000 excess deaths— but CDC also found, surprisingly, that it has struck 25-44-year-olds very hard: Their “excess death” rate is up 26.5% over previous years, the largest change for any age group!

Link to tweet

?s=20
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-excess-deaths/2020/10/20/1e1d77c6-12e1-11eb-ba42-ec6a580836ed_story.html

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

1. K&Fuckin'R

[underpants]

2. So sad. So very sad.

[Sherman A1]

18. Precisely

Very Sad Indeed.

[livetohike]

3. The truth will finally come out. Thanks for posting

this .

[GopherGal]

4. So much for the "200,000 is overinflated because it includes cases with multiple CODs" nonsense.

This is just the type of analysis to disprove that Repuke talking point.

[FBaggins]

5. As the saying goes... "lies, damn lies, and statistics"

Can't see why this is "surprisingly"

The expected death rate for the 25-44 group is very low. So any change is likely to be a large percentage change.

[muriel_volestrangler]

9. To put some numbers on it, in week 29 - the worst of recent weeks

25-44 was 3,886, compared to a 'normal' 2,353 to 2,687 from 2015-2019. 45-64 was 12,392 compared to 9,800 to 10,047.

So that's 1,366 more deaths compared to a 'typical' 2,520 - 55% more - for 25-44. For 45-64, 2,469 excess compared to 9,923 'typical' or 25% more.

As to why it's "surprising" - the initial estimates were that catching it would increase the death rates roughly equally across age groups - that catching it gave you about the same chance of dying as you would have had in the next 2 years of your life. Now, that could still be true - it might just mean the 25-44 year olds have recently been catching it at twice the rate that 45-63 year olds have, in the USA.

[FBaggins]

14. Easier to see it graphically

You wouldn't look at the data this way and say "hmm... surprising how high the 25-44 category is. Struck them VERY HARD!"

?w=600&ssl=1

[muriel_volestrangler]

15. But the pixels in those graphics are hard to measure

Could you really say from that "25-44 was over 50% higher than normal at times"?

If you go to the CDC site, and select excess deaths by age, and exclude 65+ (so that the vertical scale is better suited to the lower groups - even exclude 45-64 so that it doesn't have to show above 4,000), you can see that better.

[FBaggins]

22. That's the point

~25% of a small number is nowhere near as significant as 5-10% of a much higher baseline.

If you live to 25... you're almost certainly going to make it to 44. COVID doesn't change that. Having to ignore data from every category that IS significant so that you can "see" the impact sorta defeats the point.

I'd guess that there are about 75 million Americans in that age group. In an average period of this length, you would expect ~3,000 to die but it has been ~4,000. That isn't particularly shocking given a global pandemic. I think most in that age group would assume that the number would be higher.

[stopdiggin]

16. Thanks. That makes the point pretty clearly.

"Hard hit" is not an accurate characterization.
The story has enough weight and impact to stand up quite well without the hyperbole.

[TheRickles]

26. Go to this CDC website and check out the graphs

Here's the link: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
You can use the dashboard to focus on individual states or age ranges. A more recent version of Frodo's graph shows that total deaths in all age ranges are back to normal (I can't figure out how to post that image - sorry!).

The dilemma is that the Covid "cases" reported in the media are usually people with positive PCR tests, whether or not they have any symptoms. One recent study showed >85% of PCR positives being asymptomatic; the key question is how contagious they are. These uncertainties make it hard to sort out what's really happening regarding morbidity and mortality due to Covid.

[FBaggins]

27. Deaths aren't back to normal yet

It takes 2-3 weeks for the data to be finalized and that's on top of a short delay before data appears at all. Not on COVID deaths specifically... but this weekly figure is for ALL deaths.

Four weeks ago when the 9/5 bar first appeared, it was (like the current 10/3) well below the threshold for "excess" deaths. But you can see that it is now about 4,000 deaths above the line (roughly the counted COVID deaths for the same week).

So yes... the graph would probably surprise most who think that we're still in the second wave of the pandemic and that things are much worse. BUT it would also be incorrect to read the data as "back to normal"

[liberalgunwilltravel]

12. It's true, it is low BUT

It represents ~1,098 excess deaths in that age group. If it were you or someone close to you, you might feel a bit different.

[aidbo]

20. Human brains are not good at understanding probabilities and statistics.

[Ron Obvious]

50. Thank you for that!

When given percentages, ask for raw numbers. When given raw numbers, get the percentages.

We're so bad at assessing risks particularly when it comes to large numbers.

My favourite statistic is the one about the hundreds of people admitted to the emergency room annually for injuries involving bedding. It just proves that we live in a large country, not that bedding is dangerous.

[bucolic_frolic]

6. Perhaps because they are out and about, working to support families?

[stillcool]

17. no mask, no social distancing

during a pandemic makes people sick. It's only news, because of their age, not any particular behavior that got them dead.

[liberalgunwilltravel]

7. Can't be true

Why it was just a couple weeks ago that Dotard told us this disease affects practically nobody. I label this as fake news!

[malaise]

8. This is HUGE!

This is scary.

[dchill]

10. Exactly. The back of my neck is prickling.

Even though I suspected the counts were artificially low.

[malaise]

11. My brother has been saying 500,000 by election day and I said

Last edited Tue Oct 20, 2020, 02:52 PM - Edit history (1)

impossible - he's been right all along.

[dchill]

25. We are in for a very hard time.

[Botany]

13. Over 1/4 million dead

We will be passing WW II in the number killed in a few months.

[dalton99a]

19. Kick

[NurseJackie]

21. I guess saying "told you so" would be insensitive and inappropriate...

... so I won't say that.

[SunSeeker]

23. K & R & Retweeted!

[LastLiberal in PalmSprings]

24. Doctor Atlas will save us all.

Fat Donnie told us so. Besides, he looks good on Fox News.

[Squidly]

28. my ex who is in the medical field

has told me that the worst cases she has seen have been 30-somethings in perfect health

[LymphocyteLover]

30. it doesn't hit them at a high rate, but when it hits them it hits them hard

and it's so tragic seeing someone so young be so sick

[BeckyDem]

29. wow

[Ligyron]

31. Yet Trump had to recover from this quickly and make it look like just the flu to many.

Yeah,of course he had world class medical care but idiots will still think gee, at his age with his lifestyle and diet he snaps back this quick? Why, it really is just like the flu.

and of course everyone here knows better, I'm just saying ...

[NJCher]

39. He's being pumped full of steroids

As we speak. The crazy talk is off the charts, even for him.

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

44. Yeah, he had experimental treatments

they aren't going to give to regular people.

[calimary]

48. Some of those experimental treatments could have a nasty backspin.

So let him be the guinea pig then. Why not? He’s got the “pig” part down, already.

[IronLionZion]

45. The maskless rallies don't help either

This risky behavior should disproportionately impact his own supporters.

[JCMach1]

47. Dexamethasone, remdesivir and the immune. Cocktail

He took really do work/help some people.

I had everything but the cocktail. I can straight up say I probably would have passed away if I had caught the virus in March/April

[Ligyron]

52. Glad you made it through ok!

We know some of his supporters are going to sicken and die copying his behavior. Such a shame for any sane members of their immediate family dealing with such a severe illness and then body disposal but I know some will probably be relieved it'll be the last of the ongoing nonsense they've no doubt been dealing with for years.

[BlueWavePsych]

32. Not surprised.

[oasis]

33. Many of those who survived have lingering damage. nt

[JCMach1]

46. My x-ray looks like I still have Covid Pneumonia

Like a cracked egg

[oasis]

53. I'm hopeful you can fully recover. Stay strong friend.

[noneof_theabove]

34. It is still higher

remember they play word salad math.

For an elderly person in assisted living or dementia/ALZ.

They get CV19 and then their kidneys fail.

Report is death by renal failure attributed to CV19.

That is still a CV19 death because they might have outlived the pandemic, which would be renal failure.

My dad, 89, passed 17 months ago after about 8 months in a ALZ Assisted Live Unit.

Death certificate read renal failure due to sever ALZ, ALZ did not get the count just simple death. BS!

[nitpicker]

35. ((WaPo: 2/3 due to CV-19, 1/3 due to other causes))

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-excess-deaths/2020/10/20/1e1d77c6-12e1-11eb-ba42-ec6a580836ed_story.html

(snip)
The coronavirus pandemic has left about 299,000 more people dead in the United States than would be expected in a typical year, two-thirds of them from covid-19 and the rest from other causes, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported Tuesday.
(snip)
Outside analyses, including some by The Washington Post and researchers at Yale University, have found two main causes for excess deaths. Many probably were the result of covid-19, although they were not recorded that way on death certificates. Others are probably the result of deaths at home or in nursing homes from heart attacks, diabetes, strokes and Alzheimer’s disease, among people afraid to seek care in hospitals or unable to get it.
(snip)

((And probably from some who had screening tests cancelled due to PPE/bed shortages that then later couldn't be saved.))

[warmfeet]

36. This upcoming winter will not be fun.

Shaping up to be a real rotter.

[Cetacea]

37. I was derided for saying as much in March.

Even with a Harvard source, who reported that COVID was killing people in their twenties.

[rocktivity]

43. You're not the only one

https://upload.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=13201986


rocktivity

[Cetacea]

54. Cheers

[speaknow]

38. No it did not, the

cause of all the deaths is that POS in the WH.
He used the Covid-19 as his weapon and
he is still killing people every hour every day
that SOB.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

40. After he loses in November, our Manchurian President...

... will likely flee the country, later laughing with Putin about it.

[calimary]

49. My bet is still on Crimea.

He’ll want to go where most never-trumpers can’t reach him.

[rocktivity]

41. What part of "mutating" do they not understand?

With our sloppy but profitable testing and quarantining procedures, we gave it carte blanche to mutate.


rocktivity

[Upthevibe]

42. Kick....n/t

[BSdetect]

51. k&r

[BSdetect]

55. This really ought to be headline news every day