538 Election Simulator

[Zeus69]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/

This is really cool. It’s similar to the website 270towin.com, where you click a state to make it Red or Blue and compile an electoral count. But for this one, if you choose an outcome for a state, you see how it affects the odds of either candidate winning the election or it how changes the odds in other states.

[captain queeg]

1. That's cool. I plugged in Ohio to go to Biden which I think is possible

Moved the odds for a Biden win to 99:1.

[grantcart]

3. So foes Iowa

[grantcart]

4. Monmouth Iowa Biden 51 Trump 46

[unblock]

2. This is indeed cool. We're in good shape if we merely lock up our solid states

Really all we need to get well into the nineties is something not solidly blue like New Hampshire.

Donnie basically needs to lock up all his solid states plus tx, ga, oh, and ia to even get more or less 50-50.

Things look great for us if we win mi or wi or mn or pa.

Basically Donnie practically needs to win nearly all the battleground states to win. We pretty much only need one.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

5. But if you give Florida to trump it changes Arizona to trump? Is that correct?

I didn’t think a Florida win for trump is that impactful ?

[unblock]

6. Interesting! The states aren't completely independent random variables

There are correlations, so yeah, whatever factors cause Florida to go blue may have at least a little effect on other states as well, in some cases enough to flip the state.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

7. Well that is a little disconcerting.

Biden’s only up a couple in Florida. I always figured being up only a couple in Florida wasn’t enough to overcome the old fanatics. According to this simulation if Florida goes red so does Arizona and North Carolina. Then it’s a race.

On the plus side is Biden is way ahead in the national polls. That should help “put the thumb on the scale” of these closer races.

538 has Biden winning 87 out of 100. I’ll stick with that number.

[unblock]

8. Give Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin to Biden and Donnie has very little chance

What is good about is that *cheating* in one state doesn't affect voting in other states. So if he wins in Florida only through voter purges and other shenanigans, that doesn't affect Arizona. Unless they also cheat there, some that's an entirely separate operation.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

9. Yeah, then it looks a lot more like 2016

If trump doesn’t Doesn’t flip Arizona with Florida his chances are still really low. According to this model.

Like I said, the national polls should tell us the state polls should be this good or better to keep trump at 12/100.