How to Identify a Biden Victory on Election Night, According to 538's Interactive Model.

[D23MIURG23]

Earlier this month James Carville weighed in on Biden's chances of victory - “Not only are we going to know election night. We’re going to know at 10:30 Eastern.”(1) That could well be true, but are there any signs of this we could look for on election night, prior to the Networks calling the race for Biden?

The analytics website fivethirtyeight.com just posted an interactive version of it's presidential election model.(2) The model allows you to pick the winner of various states, and shows you the effect that your pick has on the probability of a win for each candidate. I've spent some time exploring this model today and found some eastern and central states, which, if called for Biden make him a prohibitive favorite (win probability >= 98%). I'm also ignoring states that are tossups, in favor of the ones leaning towards Biden, since these are more likely to be called earlier in the night.

Here is what I found.

Single States whose loss would doom Trump:

Florida and North Carolina.

How likely is this: Florida is currently leaning Biden 71% : 29% and NC is a 68% favorite for Biden. IMO these are less likely to be called for Biden quickly, so they probably won't offer us much peace of mind, but the possibility is better here than in Georgia or Ohio, which are much closer races.

Biden's Knockout Combos:

PA + WI

PA + MI

PA + MN + NH

How likely is this: All of these states carry a pretty high probability of a Biden win. Here they are in order: PA (87%), NH (87%), WI (88%), MN (91%), MI (93%). These are all close to the probability that the model gives Biden of an Electoral College win. For a Biden win to be secured by these states passes the smell test, because this is where Trump won the election in 2016. In my opinion the states to watch on election night will be Michigan and Pennsylvania. If Biden wins both of those convincingly, Trump's goose is probably cooked.

Let's make it happen! GOTV!




(1)https://thehill.com/homenews/media/520861-carville-predicts-biden-will-quickly-be-declared-winner-not-going-to-be-close
(2)https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/

[wryter2000]

1. Bookmarking

I can't believe I've waited all this time and I won't know on election night. I hope to God you're right and this pans out.

[Sherman A1]

2. K&R

Thanks for posting.

[Roland99]

3. My focus is on PA and MI/WI

I feel if PA goes Biden, then so, too, will MI/WI

FL, to me, is too flaky to say with any certainty but if Biden takes PA, FL isn't needed

My floor for Biden:

Link to tweet

My hope for Biden

Link to tweet

[Hassin Bin Sober]

17. Yeah, your first scenario is my pessimist scenario. That's a pretty conventional Non trump map

That’s the scenario that gives nightmares to the people who think trump might make a legal/Court play in Pennsylvania.

If Biden wins Florida it’s lights out for trump. Hopefully we now that on election night.

But didn’t the last Senate race Nelson v. Scott drag out for a week? That race looked like it could maybe flip on mail ballots?

[Mr.Bill]

20. I have no hope of a win in Florida,

if only because Florida hasn't run a fair and legal election in decades. It's just the way it is.

[D23MIURG23]

33. Obama beat Romney in FL in 2012.

Obviously that doesn't guarantee there won't be fuckery, but there are precedents for Democrats winning FL within the last few decades.

[Roland99]

23. nearly 2 week-long recount for Nelson and pRick Scott

it's so frustrating living here but at least I have Dem representation in the State and in DC.

In Ky? HA! Although John Yarmuth did make it in a couple years before I moved.

[Blue_playwright]

22. Anecdotally in Kansas...

...I’m seeing about 20 Biden signs for every couple for Trump. In wealthy areas, poor, minority, white - all areas. In rural southeast Kansas usually it’s all Trump bullshit but this week’s mini break to Northeast Oklahoma - 200 miles of rural and redneck and former mining superfund type sites - I saw ONE Trump sign. And it was on the deck of a gay couple near our cabin. 🙄

[Mr.Bill]

29. I live in a senior mobile home park in a small Northern California town.

Two doors down from me is a biker who works as a cook at an Indian Casino. He has a sign in his window that says Farmers for Trump. It's the only sign in the park. I know enough people to say it a mostly Biden community. Lots of retired blue colar union types.

Oh, yeah, he's also flying one of those black and white American flags with the blue stripe. It's made out of such cheap thin material you cans ee through it and it spends most of it's time wrapped up around the pole. It's ironic when someone thinks it's patriotic to violate the flag code.

[Boomerproud]

4. Fox News goes dark?

Just asking.

[GopherGal]

14. Too much to ask.

Starts airing features on special side-dish recipes for Thanksgiving.

[PCIntern]

30. That is VERY funny!!!

[bmpbmp]

5. Thanks for posting the 538 link!

[greenjar_01]

6. Best way will be to look at the rural Indiana and Kentuky counties that Trump carried heavily 2016

They come in super early. If Trump is underperforming his 2016 by more than 5%, he's done by 10:30 eastern. If he's on par or overperforming, it will be a long night. Not saying he will win, but it's an indicator of closeness.

[Under The Radar]

7. What time will OAN call it?

[Fiendish Thingy]

13. Jan 21. Nt

[Mr.Bill]

21. Noon on January 20th. n/t

[NorthOf270]

25. They'll start a ticker on Covid too

[quakerboy]

26. Havnt they already called it?

Its not like they need to concern themselves with actual votes counted like news agencies do

[peacebuzzard]

8. fantastic job D23

I will keep this in mind. Like many other posters, I suffer from 2016 PTSD.

[blm]

9. Dems can send GOTV donations to NCDP.

GOTV machines in Mecklenburg County and Wake County have serious muscles to flex when they are funded. They have some longtime DUers involved on the ground there who know how to get it done.

[brooklynite]

10. A cautionary point: If TRUMP wins any of PA-WI-MI, Biden's chances plummet...

[Fiendish Thingy]

12. That would mean the polls are off an average of 6-8pts- highly unlikely. Nt

[D23MIURG23]

15. That's also true.

Things look good for Biden in these states, but nothing is in the bag yet.

[Fiendish Thingy]

11. AZ is also a bellwether state; probably won't know rust belt states on Election Night

But we will know final results for AZ, NC and FL.

[D23MIURG23]

18. That's true, another "knockout" I could have mentioned is AZ + NH

I decided to keep it to eastern states because AZ's polls will close later, and the race is closer there than in the midwestern states I mentioned. AZ is currently leaning Biden only 72% of the time in their model.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

19. Didn't the last senate race drag for a week?

Iirc, there was some gain for us versus Scott when the mail ballots were counted. That’s when trump started whining about stopping the counting.

Same for Arizona senate which did flip for us.

If we are ahead on election night that should be the end of it. But will they call it?

[Silent3]

16. By the lack of plagues of locusts, the absense of giant cracks opening and swallowing cities...

...complete silence from shrieking zombies not rising from their graves, trees failing to uproot themselves, run in circles, and then burst into flames.

[getagrip_already]

24. Florida should be settled early in the night....

They count the early votes ahead of time. So the results come in quickly.

Win, lose, or too close to call, we will know early in FL. If FL gets called for biden, the race is over.

I'm not expecting that. They have all but invited hackers in and they are actively tossing ballots based on whatever. And you can bet the gop gets constant feedback how the daily totals are stacking in every county, giving them a chance to try to react.

We won't get FL as long as it has a repug gov and ag.

But NC will count its votes fairly. Don't know how they count early votes, but it isn't a big state. It should call early.

PA is fugly. It will be contested and the gop legislature may submit it's own slate of electors. Everything not counted on election day will be challenged in court.

We may not where PA is until december's senate rollcall.

[Botany]

27. OH, TX, FL, & SC any one would be fatal.

BTW Fox has given up on Trump. Kennedy something .... glasses and a sassy attitude ...
.... last night .... was talking about the leftist socialists who Joe is gonna pick for his cabinet .

[Hamlette]

28. bookmarking

[DownriverDem]

31. Michigan's Results

most likely won't be known on election night. This is our first presidential election using mail in/drop off voting. It was voted in in 2018. Over one million folks have voted here. It could take longer to feed through the ballots mailed in or dropped off.

[Marius25]

32. I wonder if Republican cheating in Florida will factor in

I just hope Florida is a smooth process and Republicans don't purge lots of votes or something, but when has Florida ever been a smooth election.

[muriel_volestrangler]

34. I can't help thinking they've miscounted some place's votes - I always seem to come up 3 votes short

ie a total of 535 instead of 538, with, as far as I can tell, all 50 states, and the 5 Maine/Nebraska congressional district EV votes, allocated.

On edit: it's the Washington DC votes. But that's so small, it doesn't show up on the map as far as I can see. How do you set it in a scenario?

More editing: Got it - click on 'all states' to get DC in the rows across the top, and you can click on Biden for DC. That does, of course, make a difference for what are the 'crucial' states. Now I start again ...

[quakerboy]

35. When do Texas results come in?

Yeah. Im greedy. I want texas. I think we can all agree that if Biden were to win texas, its well and done at that point

[Major Nikon]

36. Polls close at 7pm central time

It's a huge state with a shitton of precincts, some of which won't post their results soon after 7pm. All the mail in balloting might delay things into the next day or later if the race is close.