General Discussion

Roland99

(53,342 posts) Thu Oct 22, 2020, 09:21 AM Oct 2020

Joe Biden leads President Trump in Pennsylvania with at least 5 points in four new polls.

Link to tweet

The worst of five recent polls has Biden up 5 in PA.

Hillary lost PA by about 4 votes per precinct. If Biden takes PA conclusively, this election isn’t going to be a nail-biter

11 replies

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Joe Biden leads President Trump in Pennsylvania with at least 5 points in four new polls. (Original Post) Roland99 Oct 2020 OP

That gives me some comfort. honest.abe Oct 2020 #1

My gut tells me if Biden takes PA by at least 2-3pts, MI and WI will follow suit and GAME OVER! Roland99 Oct 2020 #2

Yes, that is how I see it as well. honest.abe Oct 2020 #3

Its a disgrace MFM008 Oct 2020 #4

It is only close because of the Electoral College obamanut2012 Oct 2020 #6

More comforting news - Biden well above where Clinton was at this time on IBD/TIPP Daily Tracker Roland99 Oct 2020 #5

IBD has been a consistent outlier, lowballing Biden's margin. Nt Fiendish Thingy Oct 2020 #7

and since Clinton just *barely* lost in 2016, Biden showing about 5pts higher is even better news Roland99 Oct 2020 #8

IBD site shows Biden ahead by 4.2% (two-way) or 4.9% (four-way), not 2.9%. David__77 Oct 2020 #9

oh yeah...ha. maths is hard Roland99 Oct 2020 #10

CAMP in PA Joe. Happy Hoosier Oct 2020 #11

honest.abe

(8,657 posts)

1. That gives me some comfort.

Reply to Roland99 (Original post)

Thu Oct 22, 2020, 09:23 AM

Oct 2020

If we win PA Trump is toast.

Roland99

(53,342 posts)

2. My gut tells me if Biden takes PA by at least 2-3pts, MI and WI will follow suit and GAME OVER!

Reply to honest.abe (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 22, 2020, 09:26 AM

Oct 2020

honest.abe

(8,657 posts)

3. Yes, that is how I see it as well.

Reply to Roland99 (Reply #2)

Thu Oct 22, 2020, 09:28 AM

Oct 2020

PA is the state to watch.

MFM008

(19,803 posts)

4. Its a disgrace

Reply to Roland99 (Original post)

Thu Oct 22, 2020, 09:29 AM

Oct 2020

Its this close.
No wonder my dad settled half way across the country to avoid his republican family in Pittsburgh.

obamanut2012

(26,064 posts)

6. It is only close because of the Electoral College

Reply to MFM008 (Reply #4)

Thu Oct 22, 2020, 09:40 AM

Oct 2020

An elitist and racist scheme, and totally archaic and corrupt now. Biden wins by so many millions on 11/3.

Roland99

(53,342 posts)

5. More comforting news - Biden well above where Clinton was at this time on IBD/TIPP Daily Tracker

Reply to Roland99 (Original post)

Thu Oct 22, 2020, 09:34 AM

Oct 2020

Link to tweet

IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll. #Election2020

#BidenHarris are well above where Hillary Clinton was at this point:

Yesterday's Tracking Poll had Biden +2.5
Today's Tracking Poll has Biden +2.9

By comparison, see attached for Clinton's performance in 2016 and you can see Biden way up

Oct 22 of 2016, Clinton was trailing orange Mussolini by a couple of points

Fiendish Thingy

(15,568 posts)

7. IBD has been a consistent outlier, lowballing Biden's margin. Nt

Reply to Roland99 (Reply #5)

Thu Oct 22, 2020, 09:56 AM

Oct 2020

Roland99

(53,342 posts)

8. and since Clinton just *barely* lost in 2016, Biden showing about 5pts higher is even better news

Reply to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #7)

Thu Oct 22, 2020, 10:14 AM

Oct 2020

at least that's the way I look at it.

David__77

(23,367 posts)

9. IBD site shows Biden ahead by 4.2% (two-way) or 4.9% (four-way), not 2.9%.

Reply to Roland99 (Reply #5)

Thu Oct 22, 2020, 10:24 AM

Oct 2020

https://www.investors.com/news/presidential-poll-joe-biden-lead-bounces-ibd-tipp-biden-vs-trump-poll/

In any event, I think a meta-analysis (analysis of various polls in the aggregate) is probably better than putting too much emphasis on a single poll. Particularly when the subgroups are analyzed within a single poll, I think erroneous inferences can be made.