Happy Thursday! 12 days to go...my nightly home stretch election polling update

[NRaleighLiberal]

Last edited Thu Oct 22, 2020, 11:57 PM - Edit history (6)

I did this mid morning (had the time), but just did tweaks and adjustments necessary - the info below is as of nearly midnight Thursday.


538 - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Oct 12 - Joe 86/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of popular vote.
Oct 13 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs. 53.5% popular vote
Oct 14 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of popular vote
Oct 15 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of the popular vote
Oct 16 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs. 53.5% of the popular vote
Oct 17 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 347 EVs, 53.6% of the popular vote
Oct 18 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 347 EVs, 53.6% of the popular vote
Oct 19 - Joe 88/100 chance of winning, 348 EVs, 53.6% of popular vote.
Oct 20 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of the popular vote.
Oct 21 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 345 EVs, 53.4% of the popular vote
today - Oct 22 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 347 EVs, 53.5% of the popular vote.

Rock steady for 11 days

Another important number - Trump approve today is down to 42.6, disapprove 53.9 - an 11.3 gap. (I know...how can that many approve???)

Sam Wang Princeton - https://election.princeton.edu/

Oct 12 - Joe metamargin +6.3, estimate 369 EVs.
Oct 13 - Joe metamargin +5.9, est 359 EVs
Oct 14 - Joe metamargin +6.0, est 358 EVs
Oct 15 - Joe metamargin +6.1, est 357 EVs
Oct 16 - Joe metamargin +5.9, est 351 EVs
Oct 17 - Joe metamargin +5.9, est 353 EVs
Oct 18 - Joe metamargin +5.8, est 356 EVs
Oct 19 - Joe metamargin +5.7, est 351 EVs
Oct 20 - Joe metamargin +5.4, est 356 EVs
Oct 21 - Joe metamargin +5.4, est 357 EVs
today - Oct 22 - Joe metamargin +5.6, est 362 EVs

pretty steady for 11 days, with the metamargin about 1 point lower than 11 days ago but EVs up today

The Economist - https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

Oct 12 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 345 EVs, currently at 54.2% of popular vote
Oct 13 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, currently at 54.3% of popular vote.
Oct 14 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 54.3% of popular vote
Oct 15 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 54% of popular vote.
Oct 16 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 341 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote.
Oct 17 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 341 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote
Oct 18 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 341 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote
Oct 19 - Joe 92/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.2% of the popular vote
Oct 20 - Joe 93/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote
Oct 21 - Joe 92/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.2% of the popular vote
today - Oct 22 - Joe 92/100 chance of winning, 345 EVs, 54% of the popular vote

election day estimate Joe 53.8%

and, again, quite steady over the last 11 days, and trending in a good direction. Let's see if any polls coming in today and this evening tweak the above Oct 22 numbers before I head to bed tonight.

A good read - by Amy Walter of the Cook Report - posted today https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/unlike-2016-trumps-being-graded-president-not-candidate

For the 11th day in a row, no sign at all of race tightening (if anything, teeny tiny widening) - as always, sleep well, DU!

then...tomorrow and until election day - vote! help the campaign - phone bank - do whatever! Energize!

[NRaleighLiberal]

1. kick

[cry baby]

2. These updates help me keep my sanity! Thank you

so much for the trouble you go through to post these!

[NRaleighLiberal]

3. it's no trouble at all and helps me alleviate my own anxiety! my pleasure!

[NRaleighLiberal]

4. kicking - we are still steady as we go.

Watching the next few days to see a debate effect will be interesting.

Seeing any trump desperation moves (a la 2016 Comey) will be the other thing to watch.