Is the Minnesota Senate race really close?

[Polybius]

I had thought this one was in the bag, based on polls taken over the past few months. Then one came out last week that showed Smith only up by 4 points. I just dismissed it as an outlier, no big deal. But then yesterday another poll was released that had Smith up by just 1 point.

What gives? Is the race really close? If yes, why?

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/mn/minnesota_senate_lewis_vs_smith-7075.html

[MineralMan]

1. I don't know. I do know that she got two votes from my house.

I'm afraid we're going to have to wait and see at this point. It's hard for me to imagine that Jason Lewis can defeat her, though, so I question those poll numbers.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

2. No. 12 percent undecided and 5 percent MOE? 1 percent lead is an outlier.

[SharonClark]

3. 538 has her up by 12 points. She's lead all season

in every poll 538 counted.

[TheRealNorth]

4. I am starting to see Jason Lewis ads

So the Republicans are at least trying now.

[Roland99]

5. even right-leaning RealClearPolitics has Smith up outside any likely margins of error

RCP Average 9/20 - 10/20 -- -- 46.3 40.5 Smith +5.8

KSTP/SurveyUSA 10/16 - 10/20 625 LV 5.0 43 42 Smith +1
MinnPost* 10/12 - 10/15 1021 LV 3.1 48 44 Smith +4
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon 9/21 - 9/23 800 LV 3.5 49 41 Smith +8
USA Today/Suffolk* 9/20 - 9/24 500 LV 4.4 45 35 Smith +10

[Polybius]

6. What scares me is the two most recent polls

The other two with her ahead big are older.

[NorthOf270]

7. These polls may not all be high quality.