General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsMeet Dean Chambers, The Virginia Republican Who Is ‘Unskewing’ The Polls
With Republicans up in arms over poll after poll showing President Obama ahead, conservatives have latched on to a new polling site that promises to unskew the data, correcting what the site believes are polling samples with too many darn Democrats. Rick Perry has tweeted his approval of the site which shows Mitt Romney ahead by 7.4 points and even Stephen Colbert expressed his faux appreciation.
Heres what the sites founder, Dean Chambers, does. He changes the baseline assumption on how much of the electorate is Republican and how much is Democratic. Initially, he used Rasmussens real numbers on party identification to re-weight various polls. Rasmussens numbers break down to 37.6 percent Republican, 33.3 percent Democrat and 29.2 percent Independent. As of Thursday night, Chambers began using party identification numbers from his own web-based poll.
Chambers project started in July after he noticed an ABC News/Washington Post poll that just didnt look right. An ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted this month showed Obama up over Romney 49 percent to 48 percent. Unskewed, however, after applying Rasmussens numbers on party ID, Romney leads Obama 52-45 in the poll. Its like magic. But Chambers insists he isnt changing or making up data. The only thing Im doing is weighting.
But thats exactly what most pollsters dont do. We dont have any preconceived notions about the party breakdown of a poll before we conduct it. The only things we make any adjustments for are gender, race, and age, Democratic-leaning Public Policy Pollings Tom Jensen told TPM in an email. It makes sense that as support for Obama increases, more people also identify themselves as Democrats. I know conservatives want to think its more Democrats in the poll causing Obama to do better, but its actually Obama doing better causing more Democrats in the poll.
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/09/dean-chambers-unskewed-polls.php?ref=fpb
longship
(40,416 posts)And scream at the top of your lungs, "Is not! Is not! Is not!"
That's what's happening here.
Oh boy! The Republics are in trouble.
R&
rurallib
(62,401 posts)not by making them better but by unskewing the standings and the scores of each game.
Finally there is hope.