What I'll be tracking (instead of watching) links to 538 and NYT live blogs
Last edited Thu Oct 22, 2020, 10:31 PM - Edit history (27)
538 https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/final-presidential-debate-live/
NYT https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/10/22/us/politics/debate-live-stream.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020®ion=TOP_BANNER&context=storyline_menu_recirc
I'll try to report any earth shattering comments in this thread.
NYT on the COVID question - Trump
Lisa LererHost, “On Politics” Newsletter
First question: How would you lead the country during this next stage of the virus?
9:06 PM ET
Astead HerndonAstead HerndonNational Politics Reporter
Welker’s first question to Trump is forward looking – what would you do during this next stage. Trump’s answer started out all backwards looking – defending what he’s done but not how he’d handle the future.
9:07 PM ET
Patricia MazzeiPatricia MazzeiMiami Bureau Chief
“There was a spike in Florida, and it’s now gone,” Trump says, the first state mentioned of the night – and also the biggest presidential swing state.
9:07 PM ET
Apoorva MandavilliApoorva MandavilliScience and Health Reporter
Trump is answering, saying models are bad, it’s China’s fault, and mortality is down. He isn’t saying anything specific about how he plans to fight the new wave.
9:07 PM ET
Jennifer MedinaJennifer MedinaNational Politics Reporter
“We have a vaccine that’s coming, we’re ready,” Trump says, then cites his “personal experience” with the virus.
9:07 PM ET
Lisa LererLisa LererHost, “On Politics” Newsletter
I always wonder how Trump’s answer on this question– claiming the virus is getting better under his watch – plays with a country that sees things either staying the same or getting worse. Everyone is living through this virus.
9:08 PM ET
Patti CohenPatti CohenNational Economics Correspondent
Trump has swung between playing down the seriousness of the virus – that it’s like any other flu – and then saying his actions averted 2.5 million deaths.
9:08 PM ET
Apoorva MandavilliApoorva MandavilliScience and Health Reporter
“Some people could call it a cure.” “I’m immune–no one’s been able to tell how long.” Both those statements are inaccurate. Trump is the only one who has called it a cure. And in fact we know his immunity is unlikely to last his lifetime. Also, “it’s going away” doesn’t explain how it can be made to go away.
Apoorva MandavilliScience and Health Reporter
“We’re learning to live with it, we have no choice,” Trump says. I can hear a lot of scientists out there gnashing their teeth. There is a lot we could do to mitigate the damage from this virus.
Peter BakerChief White House Correspondent
“I take full responsibility,” Trump says and then says it’s not his fault and it’s China’s fault.
9:16 PM ET
Lisa LererLisa LererHost, “On Politics” Newsletter
Look at Biden’s face! He looks shocked at that responsibility line.
9:16 PM ET
Adam NagourneyAdam NagourneyNational Politics Reporter
So, it looks like Biden in a very calculated way is trying to goad (troll) the president into losing his temper.
9:17 PM ET
Peter BakerPeter BakerChief White House Correspondent
Trump on March 13: “I don’t take responsibility at all.“
9:17 PM ET
Lisa LererHost, “On Politics” Newsletter
Fact check: New York is not a ghost town.
9:22 PM ET
Patricia MazzeiPatricia MazzeiMiami Bureau Chief
“You need to be able to trace,” Biden says about conditions for reopening. Contact tracing has been a huge challenge in some states, including Florida, where public health officials are still pleading with the public just to answer the phone and give forthright responses.
9:22 PM ET
Fact CheckFACT CHECK
“We are rounding the turn.”
— Mr. Trump
False.
The United States is not “rounding the corner” when it comes to the pandemic. In fact, there is now a third surge.
Read the full fact check »
Astead HerndonNational Politics Reporter
Biden making the point that he doesn’t think about virus in blue/red state terms is one that I’ve figured he’d make earlier. Trump makes it clear that he doesn’t see blue states as part of his responsibility.
Should also be noted that the blue/red states argument has a racial overlap.
9:24 PM ET
Lisa LererLisa LererHost, “On Politics” Newsletter
Interesting choice by Trump to take a dig at Governor Whitmer, after the F.B.I. revealed a plot to kidnap her.
9:24 PM ET
Katie GlueckKatie GlueckNational Politics Reporter
I spoke with a number of Republicans before this debate who desperately wanted to see Trump keep the focus on the economy. They are likely to be pleased by his remarks on reopening, less so when the focus turns back to the virus.
9:24 PM ET
Continue reading the main story
Peter BakerPeter BakerChief White House Correspondent
“I get along very well with Anthony,” Trump says before then assailing Fauci.
David SangerNational Security Correspondent
Biden insists anyone who interferes in the election “will pay a price.” But the price that was paid by Russia in 2016 – when he was vice president – was pretty modest.
Michael GrynbaumMedia Correspondent
Adam, what do you make of Biden’s tactic of broaching Giuliani first?
9:30 PM ET
Adam NagourneyAdam NagourneyNational Politics Reporter
That kind of shocked me, Michael. It is either brilliant or nuts.
9:30 PM ET
Peter BakerPeter BakerChief White House Correspondent
“I don’t get any money from Russia,” Trump says.
Eric Trump in 2014: “We have all the funding we need out of Russia.”
Michael GrynbaumMedia Correspondent
“Somebody just had a news conference a little while ago.” That would be a reference to the “news conference” that Trump’s senior aides engineered with reporters. I put “news conference” in quotes because no questions from reporters were allowed.
9:31 PM ET
David SangerDavid SangerNational Security Correspondent
What was supposed to be a discussion about national security has devolved into an argument over taxes.
9:32 PM ET
Susanne CraigInvestigative Reporter
Donald Trump has said he would release his tax returns. He paid $750 in income tax in 2016 and 2017. Trump is talking taxes to muddy the waters.
9:34 PM ET
Patricia MazzeiPatricia MazzeiMiami Bureau Chief
“They keep talking about $750,” Trump says about his taxes. That bombshell story from Susanne and our other illustrious colleagues is here:
Trump’s Taxes Show Chronic Losses and Years of Income Tax Avoidance
Trump’s Taxes Show Chronic Losses and Years of Income Tax Avoidance
9:34 PM ET
Lisa LererLisa LererHost, “On Politics” Newsletter
This is a go-to Trump move, try to deflect attacks by leveling the same attacks against his opponent.
9:34 PM ET
Peter BakerChief White House Correspondent
When he says he paid millions of taxes, that does not mean he paid federal income taxes. According to the tax records our colleagues obtained, he paid just $750 in 2016 in federal income taxes and $750 in 2017 and zero in 11 of 18 years examined.
9:34 PM ET
Susanne CraigSusanne CraigInvestigative Reporter
Trump can release his taxes now. His line that he can’t because he is under audit is just wrong.
9:35 PM ET
David SangerDavid SangerNational Security Correspondent
“They spied on my campaign,” the president said. There is no evidence of this.
Astead HerndonAstead HerndonNational Politics Reporter
There’s a contrast in the way Trump talks about relatively obscure things in the conservative media universe: specific names, numbers, stats; versus the way he talks about his own administration policy: vague talking points and rally applause lines.
9:39 PM ET
Lisa LererLisa LererHost, “On Politics” Newsletter
So true, Astead. I do wonder how deep in the weeds average voters are on the Hunter Biden issue. Like does this change minds? I know Trump leveled similar attacks of corruption against Clinton. But Biden has a very different political brand.
Susanne CraigInvestigative Reporter
Trump has reported three foreign bank accounts to the I.R.S. China is one of them. He has not publicly disclosed his account in China.
9:44 PM ET
Continue reading the main story
Peter BakerPeter BakerChief White House Correspondent
No, Obama did not say there would be war with North Korea.
The War That Wasn’t: Trump Claims Obama Was Ready to Strike North Korea
The War That Wasn’t: Trump Claims Obama Was Ready to Strike North Korea
Trump wants credit that there hasn’t been a war with North Korea. There wasn’t a war with North Korea under Obama or Bush or Clinton either.
9:45 PM ET
David SangerDavid SangerNational Security Correspondent
On North Korea, Trump is asked about the hard fact that North Korea’s nuclear arsenal has expanded on his watch. This is the problem he said he would solve. He hasn’t and is simply falling back on the (good) news that there has been no war.
Biden’s answer on North Korea is that he is going to get China to help. Every American president since President Bush has said that. None has succeeded.
Patti CohenNational Economics Correspondent
Trump and the Republicans have repeatedly said that they have an alternate plan for health care, but they have never specified what it is.
9:48 PM ET
Adam NagourneyAdam NagourneyNational Politics Reporter
With all due respect to the president, I think it’s very unlikely that Republicans win the House this year.
9:48 PM ET
Trip GabrielTrip GabrielNational Correspondent, Politics
“What I would like to do is a much better health care,” Trump says. He’s been promising such a plan for four years. Never shown a comprehensive plan.
9:48 PM ET
Lisa LererLisa LererHost, “On Politics” Newsletter
After more than a decade, Republicans still have no health care plan to replace Obamacare.
Lisa LererHost, “On Politics” Newsletter
A Republican strategist I was speaking with this week told me that Trump’s best shot to squeeze out a win is to drive this argument: that Biden would become a radical liberal on economic issues, driven left by Sanders and other progressives.
9:55 PM ET
Trip GabrielTrip GabrielNational Correspondent, Politics
Trump says that when Biden talks about a public option he’s “talking about socialized medicine,” which may surprise – or perhaps please – the millions of Americans with Medicare.
9:55 PM ET
Patricia MazzeiPatricia MazzeiMiami Bureau Chief
(Medicare is publicly funded health care.)
9:55 PM ET
Peter BakerChief White House Correspondent
Astead, Biden of course wants all the credit of being part of Obama-Biden but distances himself when it’s politically problematic.
10:06 PM ET
Patti CohenPatti CohenNational Economics Correspondent
Obama administration did preside over record deportations, but the focus of those deportations was very different than it has been under Trump. Obama focused on criminals while Trump has focused on all recent immigrants and those who have been established in the U.S. for decades.
10:06 PM ET
Fact CheckFACT CHECK
“There has been nobody tougher on Russia.”
— Mr. Trump
This is false
Mr. Trump has resisted several policy actions against Moscow pushed by his advisers and Congress and refuses to criticize the Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin.
Read the full fact check »
10:07 PM ET
Astead HerndonAstead HerndonNational Politics Reporter
Democrats are much better at criticizing Trump’s record on immigration than at outlining their own vision for immigration policy. Another place where a Biden administration would face real pressure on the left, if elected.
Lisa LererHost, “On Politics” Newsletter
Quick fact check on the “cages”: The Obama administration did build facilities to hold migrants. But they did not routinely separate children from their parents.
Or hold children in those spaces for extended periods of time.
10:08 PM ET
Trip GabrielTrip GabrielNational Correspondent, Politics
Trump said Biden had eight years to do what he says he wants on immigration. In fact, the 2013 bipartisan immigration reform that passed the Senate was blocked by Tea Party Republicans in the House. They raised an “amnesty” flag, which presaged the harsh anti-immigration rhetoric that worked for Trump in 2015-16.
10:08 PM ET
Patricia MazzeiPatricia MazzeiMiami Bureau Chief
Trump used language – “rapist” and “bad person” – reminiscent of when he famously said in 2015 that Mexico was sending “rapists” across the border.
10:09 PM ET
Jennifer MedinaJennifer MedinaNational Politics Reporter
Katie, has Biden been this forceful in calling the Obama administration’s immigration policies a mistake?
Astead HerndonNational Politics Reporter
I find the race section of these debates stressful. So much of the politics in this section involves signaling to white people about Black people, and not talking about the interests of the Black electorate
David SangerNational Security Correspondent
“Nobody has done more for the Black community,” Trump repeats about himself, “except for Abraham Lincoln.” Johnson and the Civil Rights Act? Integration of the military?
10:13 PM ET
Katie GlueckKatie GlueckNational Politics Reporter
Trump is referencing and criticizing Biden’s work on the 1994 crime bill – even as he has also spent much of the campaign trying to paint Biden as radically anti-law enforcement.
10:13 PM ET
Trip GabrielTrip GabrielNational Correspondent, Politics
Trump used the same attack in the first debate that Biden called some Black people “super-predators.” That was a line used by Hillary Clinton in 1994, not Joe Biden. “I never ever said what he accused me of,” Biden says.
FACT CHECK
“What I would like to do is a much better health care — much better — will always protect people with pre-existing.”
— Mr. Trump
This is false.
Mr. Trump’s claim that he will preserve protections for Americans with pre-existing health conditions conflicts with his record.
Read the full fact check »
10:15 PM ET
Adam NagourneyAdam NagourneyNational Politics Reporter
Jenny, that line about being in government for 47 years is an echo of what Trump said about Hillary Clinton in 2016. It was super-effective in the campaign. But at the time, he was the challenger, the outsider running against the ultimate insider. He’s been president for four years now, so not a perfect messenger.
10:15 PM ET
Trip GabrielTrip GabrielNational Correspondent, Politics
“I ran because of you,” Trump says. Biden responds: “Our character is on the ballot. Look at us closely.”
10:13 PM ET
Peter BakerChief White House Correspondent
This line is getting repetitive but Trump’s argument that Biden is a career pol who has been around forever may be one of his strongest arguments for voters who are still undecided, if there are any.
10:22 PM ET
Lisa LererLisa LererHost, “On Politics” Newsletter
It remains so odd to me that Trump can be the president – the head of the free world and obviously a politician – and still cast himself as an outsider.
Coral DavenportClimate Reporter
“I do love the environment” — but Trump has spent his administration rolling back over 100 environmental rules and regulations.
Coral DavenportClimate Reporter
Trump talks about carbon dioxide pollution numbers going down: U.S. CO2 has been going down gradually over the past few years, largely because of the market shift away from coal to cheaper natural gas, which produces less CO2 than coal. But it is projected to start going back up again in the next year, largely due to Trump’s rollback of CO2 regulations.
Patti CohenNational Economics Correspondent
Simulations of the economy next year done by the independent global advisory firm Oxford Economics and released today found that a Biden win could lift gross domestic product to over 5 percent by the end of 2021 while a Trump presidency could constrain growth to less than 2 percent.
10:27 PM ET
Elizabeth DiasElizabeth DiasNational Religion Correspondent
Biden is talking about climate protection as a moral issue, just as he has been framing his campaign as a fight for America’s soul.
Coral DavenportClimate Reporter
Apoorva, this rhetorical point about other countries, which the president often repeats, inaccurately conflates heat-trapping CO2 emissions, which causes global warming, with the localized pollutants, such as soot, that darken the air.
The little windows thing – I still don’t understand where that came from.
10:30 PM ET
Peter BakerPeter BakerChief White House Correspondent
To Trump, factories are “beautiful” but windmills are dirty.
538 comments
JULIA AZARI
OCT. 22, 9:13 PM
Biden holds up his mask and talks about everyone being encouraged to wear a mask in public. The wording there is important, demonstrating (I think) careful attention to the tension between public expectations that presidents will “do something” about major problems, and constitutional limits on the power of the federal government. Those kinds of public health measures are generally reserved for states or localities.
MAGGIE KOERTH
OCT. 22, 9:12 PM
Experts generally agree that the pandemic in the U.S. is getting worse right now, not better. We are in a third surge right now, and while we do seem to be reducing the hospital death rates through better treatment, experts have told me that a lot of the gains we’ve made in reducing the mortality rate of COVID-19 are a result of testing more people, not saving more.
MEREDITH CONROY
OCT. 22, 9:11 PM
Maggie mentioned that Biden had his mask on as he came on stage, and just now Biden says, “if we just wore these masks,” the U.S. COVID-19 death count would be lower. According to a new study, identification with norms of masculinity has a significant influence on how people feel about wearing a mask; men and women who embrace masculine norms of toughness are equally likely to feel negatively toward the idea of wearing a mask.
LAURA BRONNER
OCT. 22, 9:11 PM
Trump’s response to the coronavirus is not popular: Just 37 percent of Americans overall say they approve of how the president has handled the pandemic in our latest poll with Ipsos. In fact, 22 percent of those who identify as or lean toward Republicans say they disapprove of the president’s response — as do 65 percent of those who don’t lean toward either party.
KALEIGH ROGERS
OCT. 22, 9:17 PM
I really dislike the alternate-timeline game Trump plays here about how Biden would have handled a pandemic like this. The fact is, we can’t know because, as I wrote early in the pandemic, the novel coronavirus is such a uniquely terrible pathogen, it’s unlike other outbreaks we’ve seen in recent history.
MICAH COHEN
OCT. 22, 9:18 PM
That “learning to live with it” line from Trump is interesting. I don’t know that the politics of that message are super great. See this piece from friend-of-the-site John Sides.
AMELIA THOMSON-DEVEAUX
OCT. 22, 9:20 PM
Trump said, “We can’t close up our nation or you won’t have a nation.” Well, we asked the economists in our survey whether the lockdowns earlier in the year were too aggressive or not aggressive enough. The results were not ambiguous: 74 percent of economists said the U.S. would be in a better economic position now if lockdowns had been more aggressive at the beginning of the crisis.
JULIA AZARI
OCT. 22, 9:35 PM
There was a lot of criticism of the Obama administration’s handling of the Russia-Ukraine situation. Foreign policy decisions certainly can and should be interrogated and criticized. But foreign policy is not exactly the same thing as the question about election interference (even if they may sometimes be related). This is also a consistent strategy of Trump’s — it avoids answering the question and instead suggests that the other side has done the same thing
GEOFFREY SKELLEY
OCT. 22, 9:39 PM
This feels like a desperate last attempt by Trump’s campaign to ding Biden and lower his favorability ratings. Coming into the debate, Biden had a 50 percent favorable rating and 44 percent unfavorable one, according to RealClearPolitics’ average. Trump, by comparison, has a 43 percent favorable rating and 54 percent unfavorable one. In the 2016 election, both Clinton and Trump were underwater on this score, which likely helped Trump win, as the national exit poll found he won 47 percent to 30 percent among voters who disliked both candidates.
I don’t think Trump’s doing well, particularly. Maybe on the tone, but not on the substance. And Biden’s been pretty good on both tone and substance.
NATHANIEL RAKICH
OCT. 22, 9:41 PM
Kaleigh, I’d say they’re both pretty sharp performance-wise. But the content of Trump’s answers remains pretty divorced from reality.
KALEIGH ROGERS
OCT. 22, 9:41 PM
Trump is, dare I say, doing well?
GALEN DRUKE
OCT. 22, 9:43 PM
In the final stretch of the campaign, Trump is trying to frame Biden as corrupt. Republicans were successful in framing Clinton that way in 2016, but that took years to accomplish, dating back to the Benghazi investigation in the House. Up until now, Trump’s campaign has focused more on trying to characterize Biden as too old or “not all there.” That didn’t really work, and two weeks may not be long enough to effectively change strategies. Biden has a net favorability of about about +6 and Trump’s favorability is around -12.
JULIA AZARI
OCT. 22, 9:50 PM
This debate definitely feels like less of a mess than the last one, as others have pointed out. But I think there are a few things going on. There’s the partisan team identity stuff, and I think that’s where those claims Giuliani has been making come in — they make Republicans feel like they’ve scored a win in what’s been a pretty tough campaign. But for people who aren’t invested in partisan politics in that way, a lot of this is going to feel pretty irrelevant — politicians blaming each other, talking about taxes and accusations. For those voters, their experiences over the past year are probably going to seem a lot more immediate, and that’s probably not good if you’re the incumbent.
NATHANIEL RAKICH
OCT. 22, 9:49 PM
From a lying perspective, Trump is even worse tonight than in the first debate.
— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) October 23, 2020
CLARE MALONE
OCT. 22, 9:53 PM
Biden ties the (very popular) preexisting conditions portion of the ACA to COVID-19, saying that if that portion of the act is taken away, all those who’ve had the disease would be left high and dry. This debate is, I think it goes without saying, much more policy-focused than the last one (though that’s not saying much).
AMELIA THOMSON-DEVEAUX
OCT. 22, 9:53 PM
Biden focusing on reducing premiums and drug prices is a smart move. As I’ve written before, Americans care a lot about health care and want the system to be better, especially terms of rising premiums and drug costs — but perhaps understandably, they sometimes get nervous when politicians start talking about big, sweeping changes to the system they rely on.
NATE SILVER
OCT. 22, 10:03 PM
One of Biden’s strengths is in not being afraid to use hokey lines — that we’re all one America, etc. — that journalists would probably sneer at but that are potentially effective with regular voters.
NATHANIEL RAKICH
OCT. 22, 10:02 PM
This Biden answer about there being only one America echoes the message of a one-minute TV ad that aired during the World Series — using the piano version of “The Star-Spangled Banner” from Ken Burns’s “Baseball.”
AMELIA THOMSON-DEVEAUX
OCT. 22, 10:02 PM
It is wild to hear Trump saying it’s Pelosi who is standing in the way of another wave of stimulus — when Trump is the one who declared stimulus negotiations over just a few weeks ago, then changed his mind. Talks are back on, but now it appears to be McConnell who is standing in the way of a second stimulus bill before the election.
JULIA AZARI
OCT. 22, 10:09 PM
“Who built the cages?” is another example of the Trump tactic in which he accuses his opponent of doing the thing he’s being accused of doing, simultaneously not challenging the premise of the question that the policy is bad and not answering the question about his administration’s policy. And again, he touches on an issue that comes with many questions about the Obama administration’s decisions, but it’s not exactly the point.
AMELIA THOMSON-DEVEAUX
OCT. 22, 10:16 PM
Trump likes to talk up how low the Black unemployment rate fell during his presidency. It did continue to fall while he was in office, until the pandemic hit of course — but it remained considerably higher than the white unemployment rate.
JULIA AZARI
OCT. 22, 10:15 PM
This discussion of race also links back to the COVID-19 question. Communities of color have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic
JULIA AZARI
OCT. 22, 10:18 PM
By Trump’s logic, no vice president should ever run for president, I think. If you didn’t solve every problem during your administration, you’re done. But contending with the legacy of the administration in which they served is a common challenge for VPs who seek the White House.
NATHANIEL RAKICH
OCT. 22, 10:18 PM
Trump says he’s running because of the failures of the Obama presidency. That’s an odd fight to pick, considering that 58 percent of Americans have a favorable view of Obama, making him one of the most popular politicians in the country. If Americans see this as an election between Trump and Obama, Obama would win handily.
FIVEY FOX
OCT. 22, 10:17 PM
More than half (54 percent) of Americans have a favorable impression of the Black Lives Matter movement, compared with 40 percent who have an unfavorable impression, according to a mid-September Marist poll conducted for NPR/PBS NewsHour. There is a stark partisan divide, however, with most Democrats viewing the movement favorably (89-7), and most Republicans viewing the movement unfavorably (11-83). A majority of independents have a favorable opinion (59-34).
GEOFFREY SKELLEY
OCT. 22, 10:17 PM
Trump’s attack on Biden asking him why Biden didn’t do something when he was vice president. The answer is somewhat similar to why Trump hasn’t done that much since the 2018 election — neither politician’s party had full control of the federal government.
PERRY BACON JR.
OCT. 22, 10:23 PM
Trump twice says he is the least-racist person in the room. We can debate Biden’s racial record, which is not great on some issues. But Welker, the moderator, is black. I used to work with her, and she doesn’t say the kinds of things of racial and occasionally racist things that Trump does. So that’s a strange remark.
JULIA AZARI
OCT. 22, 10:25 PM
Trump also pivots to nationalism when talking about the environment — it’s not just about climate policy, but about the Paris Accords and what China is or isn’t doing.
MAGGIE KOERTH
OCT. 22, 10:25 PM
America’s carbon emission numbers have been going down for years … but then they went up last year. Largely because Trump reversed programs from the Obama administration, like the Clean Power Plan, that focused on reducing the emissions from electricity production.
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