Dems way ahead of the Pace in Nevada

[sunonmars]

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3

Clark County firewall: 67,000 Dems lead (includes returned mail)

That’s a 7K increase since Friday morning’s update. Much more mail was processed in Clark on Friday and again overwhelmed the GOP advantage in early voting. To wit:

Dem mail advantage in Clark: 81,000

GOP early voting advantage: 14,000

So one week of early voting is in the books, and here’s where we are – caveat that rural numbers are not in yet from Friday, and those almost certainly will reduce the Dem lead by a few thousand ballots:

The Clark firewall for the Dems is way ahead of the pace for the first week in 2016 – 27,000 ballots bigger, or two-thirds. They are almost where they were at the end of the two weeks in 2016, which was 73,000. I still think with 200,000 more voters on the rolls, the fat lady won’t start singing unless the Dems get well above 80,000.

For Washoe, where Dems lead by 8,300, I’ll repeat what I said last night: At the end of a week in Washoe in 2016, the Dems had a 2,500-vote lead. They are triple that pace this year. In 2016, after two weeks, the lead was 1,000.

An urban Nevada lead of more than 75,000 at this points is formidable. After the rurals come in, that means the statewide lead is about 55K or so — that's 10K above where it was at the end of early voting in 2016 and about where the Dems would want it to be this cycle because of all of the new voters.

No matter what happens in the rurals, the GOP needs to reverse this trend in the urbans or it is sayonara.

[Claustrum]

1. Thank you for the daily update.

NV is probably the #1 Hillary state that I worry might flip to Trump just because polling has him closest there. I know dem tends to overperform polls there.

The only worry I have here is to compare this year's voting pattern to 2016. I think democratic voters will shift majorly to mail in and early voting instead of election day voting. So we will need a much bigger margin than 10k higher than 2016 to actually win. We are still 10 days away from election day so hopefully that margin will continue to grow to counter whatever advantage GOP will have on election day.

[Thekaspervote]

2. This is good news! John Ralston has been concerned..so this is really good

[Wellstone ruled]

3. Looking Good like a Dem Victory Should!

[Quixote1818]

4. Does someone have these numbers for Florida? Wondering why betting sites have moved to Trump in

Florida?