Jon Ralston's Nevada Early Voting Blog - 10/24/20 - 8:30 a.m.
Good morning, fellow ravenous data types. Here's where we are:
Clark County firewall: 67,000 Dems lead (includes returned mail)
That’s a 7K increase since Friday morning’s update. Much more mail was processed in Clark on Friday and again overwhelmed the GOP advantage in early voting. To wit:
Dem mail advantage in Clark: 81,000
GOP early voting advantage: 14,000
So one week of early voting is in the books, and here’s where we are – caveat that rural numbers are not in yet from Friday, and those almost certainly will reduce the Dem lead by a few thousand ballots:
The Clark firewall for the Dems is way ahead of the pace for the first week in 2016 – 27,000 ballots bigger, or two-thirds. They are almost where they were at the end of the two weeks in 2016, which was 73,000. I still think with 200,000 more voters on the rolls, the fat lady won’t start singing unless the Dems get well above 80,000.
For Washoe, where Dems lead by 8,300, I’ll repeat what I said last night: At the end of a week in Washoe in 2016, the Dems had a 2,500-vote lead. They are triple that pace this year. In 2016, after two weeks, the lead was 1,000.
An urban Nevada lead of more than 75,000 at this points is formidable. After the rurals come in, that means the statewide lead is about 55K or so — that's 10K above where it was at the end of early voting in 2016 and about where the Dems would want it to be this cycle because of all of the new voters.
No matter what happens in the rurals, the GOP needs to reverse this trend in the urbans or it is sayonara.
Still plenty of time and plenty of votes to go – I’d guess we have about 35-40 percent in now after all votes are tallied from Friday. But the chart below shows you what is happening:
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3
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