FLORIDA GROUND REPORT: 24 October

[Nimble_Idea]

I will just put observations every now and then.

Obama on the ground in Miami in an effort to turn out the vote. He wants to go to bed early by 1130 pm on election night..So do I...but....
When it comes to in person voting:
Miami, Broward, Palm Beach, Orange, and Seminole counties are LAGGING way behind
the Trump counties like Collier, Lee, Charlotte and Sumter.

This is exactly how Dems failed to take FL, election after election.

It will be close in Florida, there will be no runaway win here.

[Eliot Rosewater]

1. The state itself will do every illegal thing it can to stop democracy, look who runs it.

Are ex felons able to vote now?

[Nimble_Idea]

29. Yes they can

But they have to pay all their fines. Big dust up on that here. Mike Bloomberg (remember him?) has been trying to help.

Repukes trying to make it partisan tho because they think it only helps democrats... Of course they would be FOR it if it helped only them. Apologies for the fox link in advance.

https://news.yahoo.com/florida-voting-rights-group-faced-220357616.html
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/bloomberg-raises-millions-florida-felons-vote-73163026
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/florida-ashley-moody-mike-bloomberg-felon-vote-election-investigation

[tman]

2. Ground game matters.

[OrlandoDem2]

3. Amd the Florida Democratic Party absolutely sucks. Just look at results the past TWENTY years.

[Nimble_Idea]

7. Agreed

The Florida Democratic Party is a disaster. They don't reach out for voter registration or turnout.

I wish Democrats would realize that and replace their leadership.

[OrlandoDem2]

10. I've been saying this for several years. I wish the national party would help it get is act together

[Baitball Blogger]

56. Florida Dems are too dependent on the backwater social networks that connect

directly to Republicans. That's why no one trusts them. They will never get traction until they step up and make the move to expose and destroy that subculture.

[mcar]

20. Oh, fck this shite!

I'm part of the FL Democratic party in a red county. We are busting our asses to get out the vote.

I don't need you or anyone else trashing this party. It may not be perfect but we are trying.

Should I just stop? Forget about poll watching? Text banking? Drop my Democratic women's club?

Because some random DUer posts an OP that is purely that person's opinion?

Yeah, let's trash the party and everything we're working for.

Thanks but no thanks. I don't need your negativity.

[Nimble_Idea]

25. I don't want anyone to give up

I won't be giving up at all. This news of turnout just makes me go out and do more.

People have a right to wanting the FLADems get better. Don't get angry...but try to see why people are saying it and make things better. No one is saying give up or stop trying.

Thank you for all your efforts especially in the Red parts. I have been rooting for Manatee and Sarasota to eat in to the red margins.

[mcar]

27. You've given your highly negative "observations" and now tell me what to do?

Don't get angry..

Don't tell me to not get angry. I will feel what I feel and that is outrage that someone is running down Florida Democrats 10 days before the end of this election season.

but try to see why people are saying it and make things better. No one is saying give up or stop trying.

I really don't need you to tell me what to do. I have been trying to make things better since 2016. What are you doing, besides spreading negativity?

People on your OP are running down the FL Democratic Party. Of course, that's a bid to give up or stop trying.

[Nimble_Idea]

31. Apologies again

Not telling you want to do. Let me re-phrase. I would ask that you not get angry.

What I am trying to do is reverse a serious and concerning trend in turnout that I believe will negatively impact all your efforts.

I will be trying to get Orange, Seminole, Broward, Palm Beach, Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties to turnout at Collier Country levels.

[mcar]

33. I am angry. Deal

Posting negatively about GOTV efforts by Florida Democrats and giving naysayers an opportunity to do their usual "Dems suck" routine is not helpful. At all.

I hope you are trying to GOTV in those counties. I'm not seeing the effort in what you've posted thus far.

I'll be getting ready for poll watching all day Monday and Tuesday. We have a team of lawyers, in this county and across the country, ready and available via phone or text to act on anything we report on. I'm focusing on that.

[Awsi Dooger]

45. Florida Democratic operations are much improved this year

No question about it. I appreciate everything you guys do.

I have criticized in recent years only because it was so far below my prior experience in Clark County, NV, where Democratic canvassing was relentless. This is the first year Miami felt like Clark County. My only gripe is I vastly prefer emails to texts or phone calls. They continued to contact me by texts and phone calls. But obviously they need something more immediate.

Registration does need to change. GOP canvasses all year while I see blue only the final few months. This year derailed due to coronavirus. Steve Schale has mentioned many times that Democratic registration strategy in Florida is not ideal.

[mcar]

50. I saw a big improvement in 2018, too

Even 2016 was better.

The problem in these red counties is that the local party apparatus doesn't have the money to do much of anything until election time rolls around. I'd like to see that change.

We are so outnumbered here and most of our residents are retirees on fixed incomes. Still, for the first time, we are funding a storefront office and actually have the money to have put up four billboards in the county and are placing ads in the local papers.

[George II]

35. Even if early voting turnout lags a bit in blue counties vs. red counties.....

....the registered voter count in the blue counties is more than FIVE TIMES that of red counties.

So if turnout is 50% in blue counties and 60% in red counties, Democratic turnout will still be 4-1/2 times that of republicans.

State electoral votes aren't awarded by the number of counties won, but by total votes state-wide. That "analysis" above is deeply flawed.

[mcar]

37. And the VBM numbers are overwhelmingly positive for Democrats

It is a deeply flawed analysis. I have to wonder why it's here.

[OrlandoDem2]

38. It's the leadership that has been a failure for the better part of 20 years.

Look, let’s just win FL. To do that we likely need to turn out more registered Democrats across the state.

[mcar]

42. What are you doing to improve things?

I've lived in a red FL county for 27 years. You are correct, the Democratic party wasn't all that great in years past. But, my observation from actively volunteering for the past 5 years is that there have been positive changes.

The best people I know are retirees in my county who, pre-COVID, went out canvassing every weekend to reach local Democrats. Now, we phone and text bank. We've got more Democratic poll watchers here than ever before. We've even got a large group out waving signs several times a week.

How about you be part of the solution instead of just criticizing?

[OrlandoDem2]

44. I volunteer for my local state rep.

[mcar]

47. Cool. Thanks.

I helped to found a Democratic Women's Club of Florida chapter - again, in a ruby red, rural county. We have more than 70 members. I'm part of a loosely organized coalition of more than 500 members. I'm poll watching, text banking and did canvassing when we could.

I don't think the Democratic party in Florida sucks. I'm sorry you do.

[OrlandoDem2]

48. Thats awesome! I'm a 5th generation Floridian.

I’ve watched the Democratic Party get decimated in the 1990s and it hasn’t rebuilt since. It is weak at the legislative level and it barely wins statewide elections of importance.

Obama 2008 and 2012
Nelson 2006 and 2012

That’s about it. I’m tired of losing. The Democratic Party leadership needs to understand that results matter and we haven’t been getting results. I’m tired of having no power at nearly any level of state office.

[AC_Mem]

4. I'm in Seminole County

and there were not any lines, but there was a full parking lot and a steady stream of people going in and out of the building. I drove up and dropped my mail in vote into the container and there were cars behind me. My whole family here have voted as well and we are all proud Democrats.

I get it, Florida needs to do better, but I think we are doing better than we have in the past with our early voting efforts. Fingers crossed that Florida will turn blue - but there are allot of trumpanzees here, that's for sure. Florida is a strange state.

[Nimble_Idea]

32. Well

We go down to the wire fighting!

I hope Texas goes blue too, I want to put a million nails in the genocide party's coffin.

[Jamesyu]

5. Even so I think its way too early to draw and conclusions...

[triron]

6. You make broad claims with any underlying data presented.

[Nimble_Idea]

8. I'll do this just once for you

I am here on the ground, are you? That is all the data I need to show.

But just for you and just this once:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html
https://www.naplesnews.com/story/news/politics/2016/11/09/election-day-turnout-collier-no-1-among-florida-counties/93539304/

I'll keep posting until election day. I hope we all can go to bed by 1130. Florida will send that signal first.

[Awsi Dooger]

18. Return rate in those Gulf Coast counties has been very high

I've noted that for more than a week, that Sarasota all the way south to Monroe have been well above the statewide norm in return rate and percentage of registered who have voted, while the huge Democratic counties on the Atlantic coast are below the state norm.

Not sure how you are receiving any blowback on that. It is clear cut.

But larger counties tend to show up later and also it takes longer to count those votes. i wish our return rate looked like South Carolina, where already 85% of ballots have been returned, but it was never going to be that way.

I feel a lot better about things than a week ago

[Nimble_Idea]

22. Yea it is but

Most blowback are from those who want to believe what they want to believe. I don't mind, because I would not want to hear this either lol.

But Hopefully Tampa and Pinellas can come big and those Atlantic lazies get their $tuff togther.

[Happyhippychick]

9. Here's the actual data, seeing the opposite of what you are stating

https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

[Nimble_Idea]

16. wait what

Can you be specific ? I'm not sure how early mail voting and what I'm saying are opposites.

I'll be trying to get the Blue Counties to match Collier, it's just that simple or.....repeat sad night for me.

[mcar]

23. Thanks

[bronxiteforever]

11. Tufts University on 18-19 year olds voting in Florida

Florida 2020 early voting number 257,720
2016 early voting number 44,107

https://circle.tufts.edu/2020-election-center

[FreeState]

17. +1

Personal observations are not reliable.

[Awsi Dooger]

12. Tomorrow is a key day for Democratic in-person turnout in Florida

Tyler Perry is leading a "Souls to the Polls" push in 25 Florida counties, primarily the larger urban counties:

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/374709-tyler-perry-backing-souls-to-the-polls-events-in-25-florida-counties

Unfortunately it is forecast to be awful weather in South Florida all day. Not sure about elsewhere.

[Nimble_Idea]

14. I'm praying for a good tomorrow

Hopefully this turns around the awful trajectory in the Blue Counties.

[Wanderlust988]

13. Wasn't there a lot of mail-in ballots in FL this time though?

I'm thinking Dems did more mail in ballots, so maybe that's why there's not huge in person voting?

[Nimble_Idea]

15. Won the early mail ins

But, GOP mail-in votes coming in. There are more to be dropped off - hopefully DEMS do that. Too late to use mail system and be sure.

[Wanderlust988]

19. Yes, but I think I've seen a couple of doom and gloom over in person voting

in Dem counties in Florida lagging and I think it's just cause most of them mailed in their ballots. Basically, I think it's hard to draw any conclusions on anything this early. People are comparing in person voting to 2016, but there was no pandemic then so it's not a great comparison. But let's face it, Florida will be close as it always is. I do think Biden will win it though.

[Awsi Dooger]

26. Democratic return rate is 4% above GOP return rate

63 to 59 in Florida so far. It's just that we're more dependent on mail ballots this time, and everyone is looking at the tally of 1 million Democratic mail ballots that have not been returned so far, and getting nervous.

Plus there are several online guys loudly hammering the theme that Biden is in trouble in Florida due to low turnout of Democrats in Miami-Dade. That's what is transferring to conversation elsewhere.

I feel okay because I believe in preference above turnout, which should be level enough for independent preference to push Biden narrowly over the top

[mcar]

21. What is your proof?

Or are you just trying to spread FUD?

[Silent3]

24. Wouldn't it make sense if most Democrats have or will vote by mail...

...that there's less Democratic early in-person voting?

It's not "lagging" for someone who's already voted by mail to not show up a second time to vote in person.

[mcar]

28. Also, this

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214350445

[George II]

30. What? This is a "problem"? Populations of the counties to which you refer:

Miami 2,716,940
Broward 1,952,778
Palm Beach 1,496,770
Orange 1,393,452
Seminole 471,826

Collier 384,902
Lee 770,577
Charlotte 188,910
Sumter 132,420

(these are population, not registered voters)

How far is "way" behind? Biden counties add up to 8,031,766, trump counties 1,476,909.

So assuming the proportion of registered voters/total population is equal in all counties, even if what you say is true (depending on the "way" definition), voting is STILL "way" (that word again) ahead in aggregate in Biden counties vs. trump counties.

In fact even if every single voter were to show up in trump counties, only about 20% would have to show up in Biden counties to equal that.

No, the sky is not falling.

[mcar]

36. Well, gosh, the poster is only trying to help

Thanks for these statistics, George. I'm still being told to not be angry. BTW, I've been here since 2002, am quite active here, and have been through a bunch of election cycles on DU. It's not like we don't know what to expect, right?

[LizBeth]

46. Thank you. Perused the OP, went looking for reason. I appreciate you putting the time in the post.

[Awsi Dooger]

49. We have to be greedy in Broward, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach

I don't see how the OP is criticized for that. The comparison is not numbers in relation to other counties. The comparison is to what level we need to win the state. After all, when Hillary's loss was dissected all the scrutiny was toward the huge urban counties where her turnout lagged in comparison to Obama 2012.

I have no idea how we can devote one thread after another to that theme and then say ho-hum to Miami-Dade, etc.

I thought you were going to say the huge counties take longer to show up and be counted. That I would agree with.

[Marius25]

34. Not sure what you're basing this on.

All the big blue counties have high turnout so far. One Florida election tracker stated than Dems are absolutely destroying Republicans in counties like Pinellas.

Dems have a 390,000 vote lead and over 1 million independents have already voted.

[Baitball Blogger]

39. Something is going on with Seminole's count.

[Nimble_Idea]

54. Orange and Seminole

make me angry. Not gonna lie. I thought they were going to be the shining light to make the pukes despair but....here we are

[Baitball Blogger]

55. Seminole County's Supervisor of Election is Republican.

And he's on the ballot. If the Dem's surge in Seminole, it probably won't go his way. Not that I think he would be behind the shenanigans, but someone might be looking out for him. That's how it is usually done. Plausible deniability.

[johnnyrocket]

40. I've given up on Florida and Ohio. So what! LETS GO TEXAS and GEORGIA!!!

That's where the Dems future is.

[Sunsky]

41. Really

You are comparing three of the most densely populated counties- Broward, Miami, and Palm Beach to counties that are not. The Democratic count in Broward alone will probably supersede two of those "Trump counties".
This is how they brainwash the mass and steal the election. Don't get me wrong, we need to go vote but Florida elections are filled with shenanigans.

[mcar]

43. This!

[George II]

52. Exactly - see my post #30 for specific population numbers. It's like comparing VT, NH, and ME....

...with NY, NJ, and PA.

[Tarc]

51. "concern"

[pnwmom]

53. How are the counties doing in mail-in voting, which Democrats are being urged to do? nt

[lapucelle]

57. Well if folks are concerned enough to post an OP,

then they must find the situation very concerning.

[mcar]

58. So much concern

[moondust]

59. Saw Ana Navarro on TV earlier.

She said that for the past 4 years Republicans have been running propaganda in Cuban/refugee areas of Florida tying Democrats to Maduro/socialism/etc. She wasn't too optimistic about them dumping Dump.

[Wanderlust988]

60. In 2016, the Florida ground report was very positive for Hillary

Making us think she was going to win Florida. I kept reading about her massive turnout operation in Florida and how we were turning out our voters. I guess they ended up voting for Trump instead? I'm so sick of trying to figure out Florida.