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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsNow Howard Fineman is basically saying Biden will lose the state because of lack of enthusiasm
Blacks and Latinos..🙄 so I guess he thinks the flood of youth voters in Florida are voting for Trump. https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/10/24/republicans-florida-early-vote-democrats-432135?__twitter_impression=true
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greenjar_01
(6,477 posts)...interesting.
regnaD kciN
(27,633 posts)As far as I can tell, in 2016, around 1.18 million Floridians between the ages of 18 and 29 voted. So the quarter-million who have early-voted this year, while impressive, doesn't imply a blue wave, or any kind of wave, of youth voters is on the horizon. All it might mean is that a lot of younger voters who went to the polls on election day four years ago have chosen to vote early (in person or by mail) this time around...and, in truth, we should probably be expecting the exact same phenomenon everywhere that offers early voting in this COVID year. Until we get actual numbers that show that the 18-29 vote has surpassed the similar TOTAL, not just early, vote form four years ago will there be any reason to suspect a massive surge in the youth vote, as welcome as that might be for us.
Personally, I'd love to see us take Florida and end everything early on election night, but I've been disappointed by Florida far too often over the past two decades to expect anything from them. Usually, a "narrow Democratic lead" in the polls translates to a "narrow Republican victory" when the counting ends, while a "toss-up" in the polls translates to a "non-narrow Republican victory." I'd be happy if that pattern ends this cycle, but I'll believe it when I see it.
Thekaspervote
(35,820 posts)
Sherman A1
(38,958 posts)
Trumpocalypse
(6,143 posts)Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)I don't understand the comparisons to this point in 2016. Nothing is similar. The reference has to be percentage of the overall vote. And that's not overly impressive so far, among states that release that type of info.
Up a little bit. But I read somewhere that 60% of 18-29 plan to vote absentee or early, as opposed to election day itself. If that holds up we need pre-November 3 youth turnout to be very high. That 45-64 block is going to be storming election day voting.
I'm trying to rely on the big picture: High overall turnout should favor our side. Independents should favor our side. The combo of a president with 42% approval rating and a Right Track/Wrong Track number that is 27/65 in recent polling should favor our side.
Response to Awsi Dooger (Reply #6)
Thekaspervote This message was self-deleted by its author.
Thekaspervote
(35,820 posts)
DarthDem
(5,462 posts)Dems in disarray!!!
Wanderlust988
(783 posts)Biden is doing well with seniors and suburbanites. Also no one knows how independents will vote. It's way too early to start saying anyone is going to win or lose Florida right now.
Thekaspervote
(35,820 posts)Biden holds a 34-point advantage over Trump among Latino eligible voters, far larger than Biden’s 10-point lead among all U.S. voters. In the new survey, 63% of Latino voters say they would vote for Biden or lean toward voting for him if the election were held today, while 29% say they would vote for Trump or lean toward voting for him. In 2016, Latino voters had similar preferences, according to exit polls and a Pew Research Center study of validated voters.
More at the link
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/10/16/latino-voters-have-growing-confidence-in-biden-on-key-issues-while-confidence-in-trump-remains-low/
Earthshine2
(4,044 posts)There are many Trumpers in my Delray Beach retirement community.
And they can fool you. A lot of them act normal. Nice, kind people.
But, once I find out a neighbor is a Trumper, I can still be nice, but only in a limited, superficial way.
My mother, who lives in this community, voted for Trump in 2016. Said she wanted to "shake things up."
I have no idea how she'll vote this time. Maybe it'll just be too much trouble and she won't bother. We don't have serious conversations anymore.
I am not optimistic about us taking FL. There's too much potential for grand-theft-GOP.
VarryOn
(2,343 posts)Rightly or wrongly, I see yard signs and bumper stickers as metrics for enthusiam. Rally attendance is another measure.
Biden doesn't need Florida, but a loss in Florida for Trump means he's toast.
Granted I was in north Florida, a more conservative area. I saw two Biden signs in the Mandarin section of Jax. I lost count of the number of Trump signs, flags, and bumper a tickers. We were around a few marinas and Trump flags flying from masts was common.
We saw many Trump 2020 face masks. I never saw one for Biden.
I can confidently say Trump voters in Florida are more enthusiastic for election.
When I socialized over dinner and drinks a few times, I was asked things were shaping up in Arkansas. It's about the same here too--tons of yard signs, billboards, bumper stickers, boat parade rallies, and a couple autoclub drives with flags, window paint, etc. And nightly, he draws 10s of thousands at rallies
Where I am most concerned for the next 9 days is enthusiasm. Trump's voters are showing tangibly they are enthused. They will get the turnout, but will they append new groups to their coalition?
I don't see enthusiasm for Biden, or at least any that's sustainable and authentic. And those rallies with 10 to 20 voters in painted circles...well justified....are a buzzkill. Joe and Kamala have to be let down.
This will be a turnout election, and we need voters very eager to show up. And flying their Biden flags!
Trump seems to be having fun...and that draws voters. Biden needs to do it too!
Wanderlust988
(783 posts)about Biden enthusiasm. Dems are ecstatic to vote out Trump. The donations and voting bare that out so far. Nate Silver already estimates 154 million people will vote in this election. Guess what? They're not increasing to vote FOR Trump. I really haven't heard any credible info that Dems aren't enthused in this election nationwide.
moonscape
(5,714 posts)Doodley
(11,888 posts)Trump vs enthusiasm to remove Trump. It's about the 43% who approve vs the 54% who disapprove.
betsuni
(29,059 posts)rally attendance, billboards.
"I don't see enthusiasm for Biden, or at least any that's sustainable and authentic."
No. Enthusiasm isn't gauged by buying a lot of crap and going to rallies.
CreekDog
(46,192 posts)wtf? my god, what planet are you living on. are you stupid???
your judgement is terrible.
take note people.
yardwork
(69,352 posts)
CreekDog
(46,192 posts) VarryOn
(2,343 posts)After 6 or 7 months sheltered in, I decided to fly to Florida and spend a few days with dear friends. The visit did my soul good, as I'm sure my friends could say the same.
Before I decided to go. We all talked it over. We weighed the risks, and decided the benefits outweighed those risks. I wore a mask anytime I was at the airport, in a plane, at a bar or resaurant.
I don't begrudge anyone making a different decision. The trip was almost a month ago. No covid resulted.
CreekDog
(46,192 posts)hey genius, smart people get the virus too. 
if you said, something like, i visited a few friends outside and we social distanced and didn't share food or utensils, etc., wore masks except when we ate and in that case, we made sure we were far apart when we did.
but the way you word it, was like, well, fuck it, i'm socializing, it's fine. we'll take the risks and if we get it, probably our families will get it too, even though they didn't agree to that risk.
but you didn't say the former, so we know you didn't take precautions.
it's not like you went to Sturgis or something but you're talking like *you* can make an exception because you did such and such for 6-7 months. the virus don't care how long you were defending yourself against it, it only cares if you give it a chance by letting your guard down.
if you want to socialize, visit a friend at a park or backyard and don't share stuff, wear a mask (because it's hard to always stay 6 feet apart, you can pull it down when you're far apart, it's really simple and social distance.
anyway, we here believe in science and for you to openly scoff at it, you just ruin your credibility on whatever else you're saying. oh and what were you saying? lol i recall it was some BS anyway and then you said this, so maybe it don't matter.
vercetti2021
(10,481 posts)That just because the youth are turning out doesn't mean it's going to hit the levels it didn't 2016 and Republicans are going to kill us in person voting on Election Day
Boogiemack
(1,406 posts)DanieRains
(4,619 posts)How many young people will vote in Florida.
After being burned I think the polls are giving Covigula 2 or 3 extra points just in case 2016.
DFW
(60,168 posts)In traditionally red states, a slight Democratic lead in the polls has usually translated into a surprise Republican "upset victory."
"Those who cast the votes decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything."--attributed to Stalin, no amateur at rigging elections.
Skya Rhen
(2,724 posts)kansasobama
(1,750 posts)Florida disappoints! This is HUGE. African-Americans in Miami-Dade do not care, I guess. Bloomberg should focus on Georgia, Arizona, Iowa, and Ohio. It is painful. It is as if BLM has become BLDNM (Black Lives Do not Matter) in some Florida acommunities.
kansasobama
(1,750 posts)It is the truth. Miami-Dade DUers do what you can.
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