CBS/YG Poll : Pres Support By Those Who've Already Voted In:

[sunonmars]

Link to tweet

Florida:
Biden: 61%
Trump: 37%

Georgia:
Biden: 55%
Trump: 43%

North Carolina:
Biden: 61%
Trump: 36%


Forgive me if I'm wrong but this is really going to have to mean that the GOP are really going to have to push out everyone to counteract this by or on Election Day, kind of leaving it to the last minute and all sorts of shit can happen.

[LisaL]

1. I think that means Trump's base is waiting for an election day to vote.

NT

[bullimiami]

4. really? it seems to me that those numbers for trump at around 40% are pretty much his base number.

[LisaL]

8. Really.

Is there any poll suggesting Biden is winning Fl by 30 % margin? No.
Obviously many Trump's people haven't voted yet.

[TwilightZone]

12. Trump's base in Florida is much higher than 37%.

I think it's pretty clear that a lot of them are waiting for election day.

[moonscape]

28. I saw a poll asking when people were planning to

vote in FL and it was something like 75% Dems early and 75% Repubs day of election.

[beachbumbob]

6. no doubt but you know with COVID raging even more and especially what we see in next 9 days AND

impact of WEATHER that can be REAL issue. But thebottom line, THERE ARE WAY MORE OF US than them and trump have pushed voters AWAY and not towards him/GOP

I have little concern as long as we get the votes counted and critical that we have "our election" officials covered for ballot reviews

[SharonClark]

2. Are the numbers based on the party registration of the person casting the vote?

[LisaL]

3. I am pretty sure the numbers are based on the responses of people who already voted.

It's a poll.

[SharonClark]

13. Thanks. That went right over my head.

[onecaliberal]

5. Florida is a hot spot and a lot of people are voting by mail. Not just Dems.

[Thekaspervote]

7. Not many agree with me..but one day of voting cannot match weeks of early and mail in voting

[LisaL]

10. Many polling places are supposed to open on election day.

NT

[Iliyah]

24. Ugly feeling the republicans will make sure . ...

in red districts there will be plenty polling stations whereas in blue districts only a few, if that.

[TwilightZone]

16. Sure, it can.

The majority of people still vote on election day. In 2018, even with record early voting and turnout, the portion done on election day was still 60%. It will probably be a bit lower this term, but it's unlikely to be less than half.

https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/04/behind-2018-united-states-midterm-election-turnout.html

[DonaldsRump]

22. There wasn't a raging pandemic then

I cast my vote by mail BECAUSE I didn't want potential exposure, and I'm glad CA gave me that option with mail ballots. I sincerely doubt I am the only one that feels this way.

I think the early voting numbers (especially by mail) will be astronomical because of the pandemic.

[TwilightZone]

23. If we really believe that people aren't going to show up on election day...

in huge numbers, we're in for a big surprise. They've shown up in big numbers for in-person early voting, obviously.

Overconfidence born out of assumptions or personal experience is not a good plan.

[DonaldsRump]

25. Nobody is saying that

What I am CLEARLY saying is the numbers for EV this year will be MUCH higher than 2018 or any other year. That's all.

I am not sure where you are getting "overconfidence" from, but have a great weekend!

[arlyellowdog]

27. I'm not reading that

Projections are for up to 70% early voting.

[Awsi Dooger]

29. It will be less than half on election day

No question about it. We're already up to 60 million votes while adding 5 or 6 million per day. New York is just getting started. There will be roughly 100 million votes cast prior to election day, amidst eventual level estimated between 150 and 160 million

[brewens]

26. Especially when our turnout might be bigger on election day too. n/t

[Doodley]

9. With covid numbers at an all time high and climbing, how will elderly Trump voters feel about voting

in person? That could hold back any Trump comeback on election day.

[LisaL]

11. They don't believe covid is real, remember?

NT

[Doodley]

15. That is true of a lot, but many certainly are afraid of it.

[Quixote1818]

17. It just takes 1 in 100 to believe it and stay home. nt

[Progressive Jones]

19. The biggest Trumpflake I know is very aware the virus is real.

I'd also venture to say that he takes more precautions than the average American.
I think they may have finally begun to catch on.

[marmar]

14. North Carolina is inching toward becoming the next Virginia, hopefully.

[Progressive Jones]

20. That would be huge! nt

[Sherman A1]

18. Time will tell

[AnnaLee]

21. Be careful and keep up get out the vote efforts.

Remember, Trump has taught his base the value of a big, fat lie. So you can't trust reports of their votes to be accurate in all cases.