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[wnylib]

This message was self-deleted by its author (wnylib) on Mon Oct 26, 2020, 03:46 PM. When the original post in a discussion thread is self-deleted, the entire discussion thread is automatically locked so new replies cannot be posted.

[TwilightZone]

1. No.

Not happening. It's just their latest meme.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/house/

[Towlie]

24. 538 says Democrats have an 96% chance of holding House control.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/house/

[Polybius]

50. The problem is that a lot of those House seats haven't been polled

Also, they give Max Rose a 71% chance of winning. I live here, and that's simply not true.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/house/new-york/11/

[Towlie]

55. Point taken.

Some folks swear by 538 and will even go so far as to scold those who don't consult that site, while others are skeptical.

Another source is predictit.org where people put their money where their mouth is. This is a factor that prompts people to set aside what they want to happen and instead reveal what they think will happen. Here's their take on control of the House and on New York's 11th District.

[TwilightZone]

62. That's the same link I posted.

Thanks for...agreeing? lol

[Demsrule86]

2. No. He can't retake the house...where exactly did you hear this from other sources.

[wnylib]

17. I read down the line of tweets from

a link on another DU thread. (I'm not on Twitter myself.)

There was a link to a Wapo article where Trump supposedly told some of his donors that they could not save the Senate, but could probably take the House back. The article also mentioned that several R strategists do not agree with Trump's assessment, but what is it that makes Trump think this? Some underhanded plan of his? Or just hot air to keep his donors sending in money?

[Demsrule86]

25. Trump said it but no one else...Trump is delusional...he said the same in 2018.

[dware]

3. Chances are slim to none,

and slim has already left the station.

IOW, not bloody likely.

[JCMach1]

4. Not even a remote possibility we gain quite a few with a lot

Of TX seats flipping to blue

[DonaldsRump]

5. From 0-100%

i'd say the chances were -6479349%.

If that's the case, this country is totally racist and dumb. I refuse to believe that.

I think they call this "whistling past the graveyard"? Other might call it something else.

[Codeine]

6. You seem concerned.

What “other sources” are you on about?

[wnylib]

21. See my post upthread where I answered the same question.

It came from a Twitter link to a Wapo article.

And yes, the thought does bother me. I am looking forward to a clean sweep of both chambers and the WH in order to straighten out the mess.

The supposedly left leaning Buffalo News endorsed the R incumbent in my district which really pisses me off. The jackass came in as a Tea Party candidate and is re-making his image as a moderate, although he votes for Trump policies over 90% of the time and wants to abolish SS and Medicare. Buffalo News has been shifting to both siderism, at best, ever since Warren Buffet sold it. This a-hole R Congressman has future plans to run for NY governor and it looks like he is developing media preference/influence.

If that can happen in blue Buffalo, what happens in other places?

[I_UndergroundPanther]

37. There are no moderate republicans

They have had toxic
anti democratic platform and toxic beliefs from the beginning of this country. They want aristocracy believe in "the divine right of kings". They are anti equality among many other in American beliefs platforms and actions.

[wnylib]

39. You're preaching to the choir.

I know that there are no moderate Republicans. But I am in a red congressional district where even if people are so disgusted with Trump that they would vote for Biden, they would also take the Buffalo paper's endorsement of a R congressman as a moderate as a reason to vote for the RW congressman.

[NRaleighLiberal]

7. aren't you reading sites like 538???

[Cirque du So-What]

8. Reveal your sources

so they can be roundly rebuked.

[wnylib]

27. Wapo article

[Marius25]

9. No.

Pollsters predict a seat gain for Democrats.

[wnylib]

34. Thanks for a straight answer. Glad to hear it.

[Flaleftist]

10. lol

[Squinch]

11. Is it what some people are saying?

[Gothmog]

12. Denial is not just a river in Africa

[subterranean]

13. It's theoretically possible, but extremely unlikely.

The only way I see it happening is if large numbers of Democratic mail-in ballots are rejected or not counted.

[obamanut2012]

14. Name these sources or self delete

[Callmecrazy]

15. ALERTED

I voted no hide. It's just a question.

[wnylib]

28. Alerted for what reason? Because

I am worried about it? For heaven's sake, I am NOT promoting the idea. It's a genuine question.

[Towlie]

29. Some folks here are a bit overzealous. They think only happy talk is allowed on DU.

[SharonClark]

16. LOL "Other sources"?

Is that like Trump's "some say" before spewing a lie,
or from your crazy trumper neighbor?

[wnylib]

30. Washinton Post article on 10/24.

Also carried by the Guardian and MSNBC. The article cites an anonymous insider source from a meeting Trump had with donors. At the meeting, Trump told donors that the Senate is lost but the House wa winnable.

So I am just asking if he was spouting his usual hot air or if there was any basis for him to say what he said.

Good Grief. Caution and skepticism are good things. But paranoia is not. I am not a Russian bot or a stealth R. I asked here because I expected some solid feedback, not a paranoid attack on the question.

[DFW]

18. Specifically, WHAT "other sources?"

You obviously have access to "sources" that many of us don't. In order to assess them, one has to know who or what they are. Barring that, unless you have access to Charlie Cook's private data evaluations sessions or Nate Silver's 538 team, it's difficult to give such a statement more weight than the usual Fox Noise "many people are saying." Maybe you have some sources that for whatever reason you can't reveal. Some of us do have connections like that (I sure do), but then please say so.

[wnylib]

31. You seem to have some paranoid

suspicions. Please read my post above yours.

Sources: Washington Post, The Guardian, MSNBC.

NONE of those sources reported the claim as true. They reported that it is what Trump is telling his donors.

Get a grip.

[DFW]

48. Oh, I have plenty of grip

My dad was a member of the Washington print press (from upstate NY, as a matter of fact) for 50 years, won the Thomas L. Stokes award, was president of the Gridiron Club, and cited for fairness in the Congressional Record by members of both parties from the NY delegations in the Senate and the House. I grew up with just such a grip, and knowing what flies as "sources" is in the DNA.

Basically, it's vague=bad, specific=good. The same goes for speculation vs. facts.

[wnylib]

52. I am aware of your father's creds from

some of your other posts.

I was naive to think that the question I asked would be taken on face value and not as "speculation" on behalf of the Trump camp. None of my DU posts have EVER supported the notion that I would hold any sympathies with them, let alone post something on their behalf. But I realize now that there are far too many posters on DU for them to know my views well enough to take my posts at face value. The only post of mine that was ever hidden was a criticism of a primary candidate (not Biden).

I am not a tech savvy person. I am posting from my phone and find it difficult to include links in posts. I am well aware of the value of sources. I do not have anywhere near your father's creds, but I did write 2 papers as an undergrad that received requests from professors for permission to publish, one on the social and educational needs of immigrants and the other on consequences of trying to transfer the religion of one culture onto people of another culture. The first was for a book the prof was writing. The second was for an academic journal.

Speculation is not the right word for my OP post. Speculation implies a hoped-for outcome. I asked an open ended question about whether it was possible for R's to take the House. I was appalled to see that posters took that for a hopeful suggestion or wish. My fault for not giving more info in the OP, but I seriously did not expect it to be taken the way it was.

As I mentioned in a few of my other posts in the thread, my concern over the House was also influenced by the left-leaning Buffalo News endorsement of the RW incumbent in my gerrymandered red district. This incumbent came into office in 2010 as a Tea Party candidate and is posturing as a moderate to cover his ass against the blue wave. The Buffalo News endorsement enables him in that.

[LakeArenal]

19. Stop. No

[LiberalArkie]

20. I think he can if, he keeps the senate and he is reelected.

Which probably means we are delusional here on DU or the voting system is totally flawed or hacked.

I think the Democratic Party will keep the house, take the Senate and the presidency.

[wnylib]

35. Read my edit on the OP.

I am in western NY, near Buffalo. As my DU name says, Western NY (WNY), and proud liberal all my life.

[Politicub]

23. Trump is a con man. Con is a shortened form of the term confidence man.

Part of a con is showing you’re confident to your audience. A cult requires belief in the cult leader.

[judeling]

26. Not anytime soon

and maybe not for a generation.

The demographic shift was underway long before Trump and it has only been accelerated. People forget we gained seats in the house in 2016.

But something people are not noticing is that Covid has accelerated some trends that will be hurting the GOP for years to come. The most obvious is that the work from home trend will to an extent survive long past when the virus fades, that will expand the politically urban core democratic voters further out into the exburbs. This will continue to make even gerrymandered districts increasingly purple.

Until the GOP settles and begins to moderate this increasing cultural drift will continue to make their job harder and harder.

[beachbumbob]

32. Magical thinking. Democrats could add 15-20 seats to what they hold now

GOP zero chance

[wnylib]

36. Thank you for the best and most

heartening post in the entire thread.

My concern was a genuine one after my local Buffalo News, supposedly a left leaning paper, endorsed my Republican Tea Party incumbent congressman for re-election.

[Towlie]

61. "GOP zero chance"? Really? Then it's time for you to head to Predictit and collect your free money!

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214356782#post59

I'm not trying to promote Predictit, I lost a lot of money there, I'm just pointing out that you'll probably change your tune when you're challenged to put your money where your mouth is.

[TwilightZone]

63. Betting markets are meaningless.

I'm not sure why some still think they're valid as a source of, well, anything.

[beachbumbob]

67. the GOP has ZERO chance to retake the House and yes, I have made a ton of money on Predictit going

back to 2008 and I laid $1000 on Obama when he first announced and cleared near $10,000. I have donated almost all of that over the years to candidates.

[Brainfodder]

38. During their pandemic? I don't think so.

[peggysue2]

40. NO!

Trump is talking out his ass, again. This is equivalent to saying CA might go for Trump . . . because whatta they have to lose?

EVERYTHING!

[greenjar_01]

41. Wow. Over 1000 views, 40 responses, and not a single rec

That's a harsh ratio.

[wnylib]

43. I was not looking for rec's,

just for answers to a question that worried me after my local left leaning paper (Buffalo News) endorsed a R incumbent for Congress. The incumbent came into office in 2010 as a Tea Party candidate. The Buffalo News has a long record of leaning left, until Warren Buffet sold it a few years ago.

So if a left paper in a blue city endorses a RW incumbent for a gerrymandered red district, it gives me genuine concern.

Laugh all you want, but I see no humor in the prospect of being stuck with the a-hole for another term on his stepping stone to running for NY governor. He has already hinted at that.

Instead of laughing, I would hope that party members will take notice and crush Tom Reed before he goes any farther.

Now pardon me while I compose a scathing letter to the Buffalo News. Feel free to do the same. It would be more productive than checking rec's on a post.

[MoonlitKnight]

42. If we don't take state races more seriously

Then this upcoming redistricting will be worse than 2010.

So not this year but we should be fighting to secure the next decade like Republicans are.

And we need high turnout in 2022 or any gains this year vanish.

[wnylib]

45. Totally agree. I am in a ridiculously

gerrymandered red district.

We need to pay much closer attention to state level offices in order to maintain a hold in both chambers of Congress.

[ornotna]

44. Your source

Trump privately tells donors it would be ‘very tough’ for GOP to hold Senate

The president — in a sentiment not shared by many of his party’s top officials and strategists — said he instead thinks the Republicans “are going to take back the House.” And many strategists involved in Senate races say the party’s chances at keeping the chamber are undermined by the president’s unscripted, divisive rhetoric and his low poll numbers in key states.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-senate-republicans-election/2020/10/24/f93f5ed0-15f4-11eb-ba42-ec6a580836ed_story.html


You're welcome

[wnylib]

46. Thank you. I am posting from my phone

which makes it harder to add links.

As I noted in an earlier post, and as you highlighted in yours, the article says that many strategists do not believe that it is possible for R's to take the House.

On the other hand, I live in a gerrymandered red district near the blue city of Buffalo. The usually left Buffalo News has endorsed the RW Tea Party incumbent for my district. That leaves me wondering why. What influenced them to do that? So I also wonder if there are similar influences elsewhere in the country that leads Trump to hope that his claim is possible. Or, he might just be lying as usual to keep donor money coming in.

[ornotna]

47. The Buffalo News also endorsed Joe Biden

I think that endorsement should carry more weight.

[wnylib]

49. Yes they did. But there is a

dissonance between that endorsement and the one for a RW Tea Party incumbent.

Besides, the city of Buffalo is so blue that the Buffalo News readership would drop to near zero if they had endorsed Trump. But in the outlying areas, like my red district, the paper appears to be pandering to their red readers. If they had not done that, I was hoping that reactions against Trump would carry down ticket to oust the Tea Party incumbent who is pretending to be a moderate in order to cover his ass in a blue wave. But instead, the endorsement of the RW congressional incumbent gives weight to his phony moderate image.

[Awsi Dooger]

51. We need to get the number as high as possible to fend off 2022

Assuming Biden wins, the House definitely is in play in 2022, given the realities of a first term midterm. The Democratic House margins are based on a generic advantage of 7-8 points, which won't happen in 2022 if Biden wins.

Many of these Democratic congressmen and congresswomen won in GOP leaning districts in 2018 and will win again this year, before being defeated in more balanced terrain of 2022. That is inevitable, although I realize there will be blowback. It is the reason we need to accomplish as much as possible between January 2021 and mid 2022.

[wnylib]

56. Yes!! Absolutely get a large enough

margin as a buffer against 2022. We need to focus much more on state level offices, all the time, not just every 4 years.

In her book, Becoming, Michelle Obama tells of mentoring and encouraging young leaders for the future. We need to do much more of that. For the near future, we need to actively seek out strong candidates for the next midterms, and aggressively go after incumbent Republicans.

The battle for this nation will not end with Biden's inauguration. That will be just the beginning. Republicans need to be totally crushed so they can never rise again.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

53. Yes, and they will. But not in 2020.

Like zombies, they will rise from this.

Unless we maybe add a few states, DC, PR.

[Wounded Bear]

54. Not likely at all this cycle. In fact we might just snag a few more seats...nt

[wnylib]

57. I sincerely hope so. Holding

both chambers of Congress is essential for Biden to clean up the mess.

[Wounded Bear]

58. Indeed! nt

[Towlie]

59. Attention, free money for folks who think a Democratic Party loss of House control is impossible!

Here are some sample prices for shares of "Yes, Democrats will retain House control" and "No, Republicans will not win House control" contracts, along with profit from the maximum investment per contract of $850 after 10% profit commission and 5% withdrawal fees are subtracted:

Buy Profit
80¢ $139.12
81¢ $127.92
82¢ $116.96
83¢ $106.34
84¢ $95.84
85¢ $85.75

At 93¢ all profit disappears.

As I write this, Republican "No" shares are going for 83¢ ($106.34 profit).

My point is that those of you who confidently state that Democrats will absolutely retain control of the House are missing out on some easy money!

Not responsible for calculation errors. Double-check the math before buying in.

[Progressive Jones]

60. I see the Dems increasing their presence in the House. nt

[mcar]

64. Oh, Trump said it

and media reported he said it. Let's all get concerned.

[wnylib]

65. You are apparently blessed to not live

in a gerrymandered red congressional district where a nearby left-leaning city newspaper endorsed the Tea Party incumbent of the red district. Congratulations. I am happy for you that you can take such a bizarre happening so lightly.

I can't. I live there.

[mcar]

66. First, I live in a gerrymandered ruby red district

that includes part of The Villages, FL. 'Nuf said.

Second, that has nothing to do with your OP.

[wnylib]

68. It has lot to do with the concern I felt

about the question I asked in the OP. A left leaning paper, the Buffalo News, in a very blue city (Buffalo), endorsed a Tea Party incumbent for my red district. If something like that has not happened in your red district, then the fact that your district is red is irrelevant to my concerns.