Just out of curiosity, which demographic has shifted toward Donnie from 2016 to 2020?

[unblock]

Seems to me not only are the demographics themselves shifting toward Biden and democrats, but each demographic group seems to be shifting away from Donnie and the republicans.

Is there *any* demographic group that's shifted toward Donnie and republicans in the last 4 years?

He won 2016 very narrowly, losing the popular vote but with just enough votes in just the right states to win the electoral college.


Everything is going against Donnie. Honestly I don't know how he gets even the 1 chance in 8 that Nate silver gives him.

[DonaldsRump]

1. Stupid people with/without a college education; Racists

That's all.

[Wellstone ruled]

2. Spot on!

[kurtcagle]

9. Maybe not even that

Here's my list of where Trump picked up support. I think Biden may be in trouble

* Aging has-been TV Stars
* Karens
* Crooked Cops
* Big Game Hunters
* NAMBLA
* QAnon Groupies
* Apocalyptic End-Timers
* Lady G
* Gun Fetishists
* Mr. Burns Worshippers
* Russian Trolls (Армия троллей России .

There are likely to be overlaps here, however.

[Wellstone ruled]

14. Well,we know his Supporters

are Murdoch Media fans as well as OAN groupies.

[Progressive Jones]

32. LMAO. "Lady G". I just learned about that nickname last week! nt

[unblock]

6. But they were already in his camp in 2016.

So what, this group went from 90% support to 95% support?

[DonaldsRump]

20. More like to 100% for each category

They are very proud of their patron saint, since he has totally exemplified these categories.

I am being very serious. Unless you're dumb and/or racist, he has not grown support in ANY demographic AFAIK. In fact, why do you think his numbers have grown? They've shrunk.

[unblock]

23. That's my point. He's worse off across the board.

Aside from being a horrible president, he's a horrible candidate and horrible politician. The more he talks, the more people see and hear him, the more support and money Biden gets.

The only group he's really tried to please is exactly that, stupid and racist people. Ok, sexists, xenophobics, and ultra-rich people too.

[DonaldsRump]

25. I totally agree

He has lost in every category except literally the ones I described (maybe add Christian fanatics).

Where he is getting pummeled right now is with women, senior citizens/older voters, young voters, and true independents EXCEPT those who are racist, Christian fanatics, and the ignorant.

I guess I am being a bit circular, but we're on the same page.

[klook]

3. Masochists.

But Empress Delfina's conversion therapy is winning them over, too!

[Quixote1818]

4. I had a very similar post to this back in September

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214123613

[unblock]

11. Gmta

[Squinch]

5. Dumb affligits. That's a word my grandmother used to use. I have no idea where it comes from.

Closest I can find is "afligere" which is Spanish for "to bother." Or the French word for "to grieve someone" or distress them. But we're Irish.

But, according to my grandmother's usage, it's the dumbest and most annoying morons you can possibly imagine.

Also, he's grown in popularity with bots.

[Cartoonist]

10. Affluent Gits?

[Squinch]

12. No, it was not wealth dependent.

[RainCaster]

7. Russian trolls?

[unblock]

8. I'd bet he's lost a number of them who realize the Trump brand is now unmarketable.

[RainCaster]

19. Nah. They are in it for the rubles.

Capitalism in communist Russia is good, yes?

[CrispyQ]

13. I don't think he's grown his base one bit & in fact has shed off members.

Some of the pundits point out that he is ahead in certain areas but neglect to compare his current numbers to 2016 numbers. He is ahead by a much lower number now than in 2016 in many of his key constituencies, & barely hanging on in some. He shouldn't have to be campaigning in areas he's campaigning in. Then again, he wants adoring crowds who will forego safety measures to see him, so where else can he go? Stupid piece of shit that he is.

[unblock]

17. Yeah, his strategy is idiotic. If he shores up states like pa, wi, nm,

Then he improves in tx, ga, ia, etc.

There are zero scenarios in which spending time and money in Texas or Georgia makes any sense at all.

If he needs to fight to win Texas, then he's already lost elsewhere and he's just limiting the embarrassment.

[bottomofthehill]

15. Nazi's, Klansmen, white supremacists, grifters

All up from 99 percent in 2016 to 99.99 in 2020

[Polybius]

16. How about states?

Are there any states that he lost in 2016 that he even has a chance to win in 2020? MN? NV? NH?

[unblock]

18. Right, same point. Donnie's worse of politically by nearly every metric.

He may win a surprise, maybe nh, but that's it. He's losing the important ones like pa, mi, wi, mn.

[Polybius]

21. Nevada is too close for comfort too

I think Trump loses Michigan and PA. He can technically still win if keeps every other state he won. That would put him at exactly 270 EV's.

[LAS14]

22. There was a depressing post here a few days ago that showed young black people..

... 20% to 22% for the GOP. How on earth??? I also think the Latino vote (diverse as it is) is shifting a little to the right. nt

[mopinko]

27. nate silver called out that polling company today.

murdoch clones.

[Awsi Dooger]

29. Nate Silver called out Trafalgar, not EquisResearch

Unless I missed it deep in the comments I didn't see him say anything about Equis or the polling results. Steve Schale raves about Carlos Odio and Equis.

This is the disturbing trend. The one group that has shifted markedly toward Trump since 2016 is Hispanic males. They are only +8 toward Biden compared to Hispanic females +34. For reference, Hispanic males were 63-32 for Hillary according to the 2016 national exit poll. I posted 3 years ago that if Trump won in 2020 it would be due to surprising level among Hispanics. They are always unusually loyal to presidential incumbents, regardless of issues. Also from this chart you can see black males are 14 points more favorable to Trump than black females. That is another switch from 2016, when the gap was 9%...4% black females voting for Trump and 13% males:

Link to tweet

[mopinko]

30. my bad. i assumed.

made an ass of me, but not you.

[stopdiggin]

24. there is an unfortunate trend

And I don't think this is confined to a demographic -- but do think that young people have grown up with it -- that believe the accumulation of wealth is the only true and enduring American value.

Not only is that the way the game is played -- but that IS in fact the game.
(and it makes me very sad to say this -- but I think we have cultivated that idea in some part -- through rank cynicism -- ourselves.)

[Stargleamer]

26. Contrarians of all stripes

[11 Bravo]

28. The ignorant, racist, sexist, cousin-humping demo moved from 99% to 100% pro-Trump.

[Tribetime]

31. Hmmm how long can I think about that one...

Nothing comes to mind.

[Progressive Jones]

33. I don't think the numbers would be huge, but he may pick up

some rubes who didn't vote for him in 2016 (as in too lazy to vote), but who've come to love him.
If they buy into his fear mongering, they'll show up this time.

My official 2020 Presidential race prediction: Trump will lose by at least 6-8 points. I'm hoping for double digits.

[Stinky The Clown]

34. The racist section of Dumbfuckistan. Even the rest of Dumbfuckistan is now Biden Country

[Buckeye_Democrat]

35. A Pew Research poll from June showed...

... that slightly more white evangelical Christians intended to vote for Trump than they did in 2016.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/07/01/white-evangelical-approval-of-trump-slips-but-eight-in-ten-say-they-would-vote-for-him/

The same survey finds that if the 2020 presidential election were held today, 82% of white evangelical Protestant registered voters would vote for Trump or lean toward voting for him, while 17% say they would back the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee, Joe Biden. By comparison, a Pew Research Center survey that was conducted just after the 2016 presidential election among those who were identified as having voted found that 77% of white evangelical Protestant voters backed Trump, while 16% voted for Hillary Clinton.