Florida Voting and latest CBS/YouGov Poll

[angrychair]

So I'm going to get a little down in the weeds here but doing so helps ease my anxiety, a little, when I break down the math.

A lot of hand wringing on the latest CBS/YouGov poll but in all actuality it still favors Biden to win, given the percent of voters that have already voted and the rest left outstanding, the math favors Biden.

here is how I broke it down, based on the poll:

average of voter turnout since 2008 is 74% of registered voters (record turnout was 83% in 1992), based on the polling percentages given in the poll, it would work out to a voter turnout of 82% of registered voters.

49% of likely voters have already voted, which based Florida's election website of early and mail-in voting, 5,722,406 people have already voted. meaning that 51%, roughly another 5,779,630 people, are left for vote still. Meaning, based on this poll, likely voters total is expected to be 11,502,036...again, at 82% of registered voters, much higher than the last 3 general elections.

of the vote already in, 5,722,406, 61% has broken in favor of Biden or 3,490,677
and 37% has broken toward trump or 2,117,290 (they dont add up to a 100% for whatever reason

of the remaining 51% of vote, 5,779,630, 40% is expected to break for Biden or 2,311,852

and 59% to break toward trump or 3,409,981

totals 5,802,529 for Biden 51%
5,527,271 for trump 49%

Big caveat, for whatever reason the CBS polling numbers did not equal 100%, only equaled 98% in already voted and 99% in still to vote. Not sure what to make of that as the final vote count is very likely to be within 3% of each other. Because of that numbers are very rough. The only solid number I had to go on was the number of people that have already voted, everything is extrapolated from the percentages in the poll...which do no add up to 100%.

That said, even playing with the numbers a little, based on known voting numbers, doesn't really change the final outcome. It seems the likely outcome for Biden is roughly 2% to 4%.

While obviously not a significant margin, it still appears that the math is in Biden's favor even if it breaks the way the CBS/YouGov poll predicts

[Eliot Rosewater]

1. Look how many Floridians want to commit suicide

They are not alone, lots of dumb around

[ramblin_dave]

2. Which polls did you look at?

There was an initial poll circulating for voters that had already voted. Then later a poll for voters that had not voted. Both by CBS/YouGov. Di you use both of these?

[angrychair]

3. I used both

I used this one from Twitter:

Link to tweet

?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

[Kaleva]

9. A positive is that those early votes for Biden are already in the "bank"

While Georgia appears to be a tossup, NC looks to be a win for Biden and a win in Florida looks to be doable.

[angrychair]

11. yea, was going to go look at them too

but Florida is one of the few that breaks vote down by Party, county and totals already in and still outstanding. Got to give credit where credit is do. It makes math exercises like this a lot more real world.

[ramblin_dave]

12. Thanks, so the turnout you assumed is an educated guess,

which makes sense to go high given the current level of interest. Did you use some spreadsheet that could vary the turnout guess and see what turnout would be necessary to turn things against Biden?

[angrychair]

21. well, my assumptions

are all based on the percentages within the polling and the number hard number of total people that have already voted from Florida's election website.

As far as what it would take for trump to swing it his way on election day voting? Again, since the CBS numbers don't add up to 100% its little fuzzy.

That said,the numbers start to turn against us if trump gets 62% or more of the election day voting or roughly 3% or more.

its always tight margins in Florida.

[angrychair]

5. The individual poll

Has it Biden 50% and Trump 48%, which is roughly what the final election day numbers seem to be.

[Roland99]

4. Probably rounding and then the third party candidates on the ballot

[angrychair]

6. good point

would still seem significant gap, I would seriously doubt jorgensen would get much more than 1%.

[Dream Girl]

14. I was about to post that...numbers don't add up due to rounding up/down

[Quixote1818]

7. CBS has the best track record for state polls according to this

https://www.wfmynews2.com/article/news/local/2-wants-to-know/these-polls-were-the-most-accurate-in-2016-here-is-where-they-stand-now/83-465826c8-a49f-465d-a9c3-a82a1d96e60f

[angrychair]

10. Interesting

thanks for the link.

Hopefully so, because if true, the math works in Biden's favor. Which I heard the Trump campaign was bragging about the CBS poll and the final day of voting breaking like that is to little, to late. Biden has already ran up the count in is favor that what is left is not enough for trump to win.

[Quixote1818]

13. Plus one bird in the hand is better than two in a bush

I would rather have the early lead because some of those who say they will vote might not follow through.

[regnaD kciN]

16. Especially with a new COVID wave...

[bluecollar2]

8. Voted straight Dem in FL26..N/T

[Awsi Dooger]

18. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell needs to win that district

Looking more promising recently. The Corrupt Carlos ads are all over the place and with some nice variance. I think the best one features the housewife saying, "We're sending him to Washington for what...to fail again?"

[bluecollar2]

23. I agree

Cast my vote by mail and according to the Miami-Dade website it has been received and counted.

Stopped by the library down here at soth dade govt center library to get a book Saturday and business was brisk.

I've only been down here for 3 years but the Himenez clan corruption is obvious...

Hopefully DMP will retain the seat.

[Wounded Bear]

15. Remember these are "votes cast" and not "votes counted"...

It reflects the party of the people who have cast votes, but not necessarily who they voted for.

[angrychair]

17. I agree

I'm basing it on the premise of the the CBS polling though without making any other assumptions.

[Earthshine2]

19. Vote early ... Vote by drop ballot box ... Don't trust the mail ... Don't wait for election day!

The pandemic is getting worse. FL case numbers are manipulated.

Election day could be a risky time to wait in line.

[angrychair]

22. This x1000 you are right Earthshine2

As my voting breakdown shows, an early vote now means so much more. Its a banked vote. Not a "maybe" vote.

[Earthshine2]

26. And let me add - track your ballot!

www.pbcelections.org/Voters/My-Status


I am marked as received, but I am not yet marked as counted.

[Squinch]

20. Nice, nice, nice analysis. Thank you. I feel better after reading it.

[kansasobama]

24. Yes you helped with my anxiety

I am going nuts over very poor performance by our Miami-Dade Democrats who are sitting on their butts. You helped and hope your analysis is correct. Independent vote, if has many young people, will probably go mostly to Biden. The young vote on election day might be Trumpies.

[onetexan]

25. From CNN: This will make you feel alot better

"In PA about 70% of pre-election votes have come from Democrats so far, compared to about 20% from Republicans."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/25/politics/pre-election-voting-surpasses-2016-early-ballots/index.html

Other battleground states are listed too.