I think 538 should ban Trafalgar and Rasmussen like the Economist did

[NewsCenter28]

Both ‘firms’ are totally out of control and clearly trying to skewer state and national averages with daily joke polls.

[Johnny2X2X]

1. Rasmussen just released a poll 48-47 Trump leading

And it brought the poll average on 538 from +9.1 to +8.7.

They won't ban them because they've been including them for so long. Abandoning methods this late in the game throws everything off for statisticians.

[SharonClark]

7. 538 still forecasts Biden over Trump by 7.9% nationwide; it hasn't changed in several days.

Maybe you were referring to a specific state?

[Johnny2X2X]

8. It's their average of polls

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

[TwilightZone]

2. They're not really that similar.

Rasmussen is an actual polling organization with a pronounced right-ward bias that everyone is aware of. They're hacks, but they're known hacks with a recognizable methodology.

Trafalgar is some kind of joke. Their numbers, particularly minority numbers, are so far out of whack that they appear to be pulled out of thin air.

[Claustrum]

3. I think 538 already weights them very low and so their effect aren't that large.

The reason for Biden's 538 number not improving is not because of Trafalgar or Rasmussen. It is because of the 2-3 weeks old polls phasing out of the average. Remember, 2-3 weeks ago is the disaster of Trump's first debate debacle and his COVID positive diagnosis. So Biden had his best numbers around that time.

[shotten99]

4. Outliers are a statistical inevitability

There was a similar IBD poll which caused alarm last week.
They're now showing a 52-45 race.

Long story short: if it's too good or bad to be true in comparison to the other numbers coming in,
then it should probably be discounted.

[634-5789]

5. http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/

[Celerity]

6. Nate Silver Blasts Trafalgar Polls as "Crazy"

https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/politics/nate-silver-blasts-trafalgar-and-rasmussen-polls-as-crazy



Trump's supporters cite Trafalgar and Rasmussen polls as why Trump will win. Let's investigate those polls.
Trafalgar and Rasmussen Polls

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[SharonClark]

9. K&R

[Sherman A1]

10. +1