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NewsCenter28

(1,835 posts) Mon Oct 26, 2020, 10:39 AM Oct 2020

I think 538 should ban Trafalgar and Rasmussen like the Economist did

Both ‘firms’ are totally out of control and clearly trying to skewer state and national averages with daily joke polls.

10 replies

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I think 538 should ban Trafalgar and Rasmussen like the Economist did (Original Post) NewsCenter28 Oct 2020 OP

Rasmussen just released a poll 48-47 Trump leading Johnny2X2X Oct 2020 #1

538 still forecasts Biden over Trump by 7.9% nationwide; it hasn't changed in several days. SharonClark Oct 2020 #7

It's their average of polls Johnny2X2X Oct 2020 #8

They're not really that similar. TwilightZone Oct 2020 #2

I think 538 already weights them very low and so their effect aren't that large. Claustrum Oct 2020 #3

Outliers are a statistical inevitability shotten99 Oct 2020 #4

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/ 634-5789 Oct 2020 #5

Nate Silver Blasts Trafalgar Polls as "Crazy" Celerity Oct 2020 #6

K&R SharonClark Oct 2020 #9

+1 Sherman A1 Oct 2020 #10

Johnny2X2X

(19,253 posts)

1. Rasmussen just released a poll 48-47 Trump leading

Reply to NewsCenter28 (Original post)

Mon Oct 26, 2020, 10:41 AM

Oct 2020

And it brought the poll average on 538 from +9.1 to +8.7.

They won't ban them because they've been including them for so long. Abandoning methods this late in the game throws everything off for statisticians.

SharonClark

(10,014 posts)

7. 538 still forecasts Biden over Trump by 7.9% nationwide; it hasn't changed in several days.

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 26, 2020, 10:54 AM

Oct 2020

Maybe you were referring to a specific state?

Johnny2X2X

(19,253 posts)

8. It's their average of polls

Reply to SharonClark (Reply #7)

Mon Oct 26, 2020, 10:55 AM

Oct 2020

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

TwilightZone

(25,512 posts)

2. They're not really that similar.

Reply to NewsCenter28 (Original post)

Mon Oct 26, 2020, 10:42 AM

Oct 2020

Rasmussen is an actual polling organization with a pronounced right-ward bias that everyone is aware of. They're hacks, but they're known hacks with a recognizable methodology.

Trafalgar is some kind of joke. Their numbers, particularly minority numbers, are so far out of whack that they appear to be pulled out of thin air.

Claustrum

(4,846 posts)

3. I think 538 already weights them very low and so their effect aren't that large.

Reply to NewsCenter28 (Original post)

Mon Oct 26, 2020, 10:42 AM

Oct 2020

The reason for Biden's 538 number not improving is not because of Trafalgar or Rasmussen. It is because of the 2-3 weeks old polls phasing out of the average. Remember, 2-3 weeks ago is the disaster of Trump's first debate debacle and his COVID positive diagnosis. So Biden had his best numbers around that time.

shotten99

(622 posts)

4. Outliers are a statistical inevitability

Reply to NewsCenter28 (Original post)

Mon Oct 26, 2020, 10:44 AM

Oct 2020

There was a similar IBD poll which caused alarm last week.
They're now showing a 52-45 race.

Long story short: if it's too good or bad to be true in comparison to the other numbers coming in,
then it should probably be discounted.