Monday! 8 Days to go! My Daily Home Stretch Election Polling Update. no tightening!

[NRaleighLiberal]

Last edited Mon Oct 26, 2020, 11:06 PM - Edit history (13)

Figured I'd get this posted before our long walk among the fall foliage. As always, adjustments will be made throughout the day.

538 - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Oct 12 - Joe 86/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of popular vote.
Oct 13 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs. 53.5% popular vote
Oct 14 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of popular vote
Oct 15 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of the popular vote
Oct 16 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs. 53.5% of the popular vote
Oct 17 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 347 EVs, 53.6% of the popular vote
Oct 18 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 347 EVs, 53.6% of the popular vote
Oct 19 - Joe 88/100 chance of winning, 348 EVs, 53.6% of popular vote.
Oct 20 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of the popular vote.
Oct 21 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 345 EVs, 53.4% of the popular vote
Oct 22 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 347 EVs, 53.5% of the popular vote.
Oct 23 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.4% of the popular vote.
Oct 24 - Joe 86/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 53.3% of the popular vote.
Oct 25 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 345 EVs, 53.3% of the popular vote.
today - Oct 26 - 87/100 chance of winning, 344 EVs, 53.3% of popular vote

Essentially rock steady for 15 days

Another important number - Trump approve today is 42.8, disapprove 53.4 - an 10.5 gap. (I know...how can that many approve???)

Sam Wang Princeton - https://election.princeton.edu/

Oct 12 - Joe metamargin +6.3, estimate 369 EVs.
Oct 13 - Joe metamargin +5.9, est 359 EVs
Oct 14 - Joe metamargin +6.0, est 358 EVs
Oct 15 - Joe metamargin +6.1, est 357 EVs
Oct 16 - Joe metamargin +5.9, est 351 EVs
Oct 17 - Joe metamargin +5.9, est 353 EVs
Oct 18 - Joe metamargin +5.8, est 356 EVs
Oct 19 - Joe metamargin +5.7, est 351 EVs
Oct 20 - Joe metamargin +5.4, est 356 EVs
Oct 21 - Joe metamargin +5.4, est 357 EVs
Oct 22 - Joe metamargin +5.6, est 362 EVs
Oct 23 - Joe metamagin +5.5, est 358 EVs
Oct 24 - Joe metamargin +5.5, est 357 EVs
Oct 25 - Joe metamargin +5.4, 360 EVs
today - Oct 26 - Joe metamargin +5.6, 354 EVs

pretty steady for 15 days

The Economist - https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

Oct 12 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 345 EVs, currently at 54.2% of popular vote
Oct 13 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, currently at 54.3% of popular vote.
Oct 14 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 54.3% of popular vote
Oct 15 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 54% of popular vote.
Oct 16 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 341 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote.
Oct 17 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 341 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote
Oct 18 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 341 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote
Oct 19 - Joe 92/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.2% of the popular vote
Oct 20 - Joe 93/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote
Oct 21 - Joe 92/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.2% of the popular vote
Oct 22 - Joe 92/100 chance of winning, 345 EVs, 54% of the popular vote
Oct 23 - Joe 92/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 54.1% of the popular vote
Oct 24 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 340 EVs, 53.9% of the popular vote
Oct 25 - Joe 94/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.5% of the popular vote
today - Oct 26 - Joe 95/100 chance of winning, 352 EVs, 54.5% of the popular vote

election day estimate Joe 54.3%

and, again, quite steady over the last 15 days, with another slight kick today.

For the 15th day in a row, no significant sign at all of race tightening; in fact, teeny signs of improvement. Enjoy the rest of your Monday....check back tonight to see what's changed!

The current electoral vote totals from the three sites are 344, 354 and 352. Very consistent.

Bonus addition - where the election was in 2016 on 538 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

8 days before the election in 2016 was Nov 1. Hillary was at 71% chance, 303 EVs, 49 to 45 percent popular vote, 4 point separation - and this was 4 days after the Comey letter surfaced - her numbers were starting to drop. Joe has 42 more EVs, 16 percent higher chance, and 53 vs 49 percent popular vote - 4 point separation, with Joe well over 50. The Comey letter impact became worse - Joe's numbers are higher, and much more steady.

then...tomorrow and until election day - vote! help the campaign - phone bank - do whatever! Energize!

[NRaleighLiberal]

1. afternoon kick

[ancianita]

2. Double kick!

Thanks!

[livetohike]

3. K&R

[kurtcagle]

4. Rasmussen

Rasmussen dropped a bombshell poll with Trump national at +1 today, which of course threw the model off by a couple of points in Trump's favor, as it has been consistent at +8 to +11 for Biden for a few weeks now. Rasmussen has been favorable for GOP the entire cycle, and they've been bigger and bigger outliers. Given that, I'm really inclined to believe that Rasmussen is being used to pull the poll numbers down, not to report accurately the sentiment, something that they've done before.

If I see other polls start to drop, there may be something to worry about here, but this looks like a case of the tail wagging the dog.

[NRaleighLiberal]

5. outlier...538 will adjust and add to their aggregate. Today overall

looks like the last 2 weeks

[Turin_C3PO]

6. Thank you!

Really nervous about next Tuesday but fairly confident at the same time.

[NRaleighLiberal]

7. kick...numbers slightly updated from this AM