NYT/Siena: With Weakness Among Hispanic Voters, Biden Trails in Texas

[Drunken Irishman]

Not a good poll for Biden. Definitely better than 2016 but not particularly close there compared to some recent polls as Biden is losing 47-43.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/26/upshot/poll-texas-hispanics-trump.html

[CaliforniaPeggy]

1. I always thought Texas would be a long shot for Joe.

Someday it will turn blue. Maybe in stages, little by little.

~sigh~

[Drunken Irishman]

3. Agreed. Would have been nice but it's not necessary.

[BusyBeingBest]

2. What exactly do Hispanic voters in Texas want?

They want more of the guy who hates them? OK then, idiots.

[PatSeg]

5. Yes, rather unsettling

Trump has done everything possible to insult and demean them. What do they see in him?

[LizBeth]

7. Hereford Texas, 71% Latino has been said to be the most conservative area in the country per capita.

[BusyBeingBest]

16. It's interesting how much their politics vary from state to state.

I live in an Hispanic part of Colorado, and they tend to lean Democratic here (and in New Mexico I guess).

[LizBeth]

22. It is. It is the whole Texas macho thing.

[kansasobama]

8. Exactly

There has been an increasing support for Trump. Trump calls Hispanics fools and you end up voting for Trump? Do not get it.

[calimary]

11. Sure doesn't make sense to me.

They stand with the candidate/party that’s locked up their own babies, toddlers, and children in CAGES???

Sorry. I just don’t get it. Is it about abortion? Well, what about all the young, vulnerable, and already alive? Or do we only care about the mass of differentiation cells inside a woman’s most private, most intimate body parts?

[Awsi Dooger]

32. Big picture generalities overwhelm specifics

Hispanics always tilt toward the presidential incumbent. Issues mean very little. I posted years ago that if Trump were re-elected in 2020 it would be due to increased Hispanic support, because of that incumbency aspect.

Again:

Clinton 61% Hispanic support 1992, 73% 1996
Bush 35% 2000, 44% 2004
Obama 67% 2008, 71% 2012

Note that Obama's national margin virtually was cut in half from 2008 to 2012, yet it rose among Hispanics. That's how powerful this trend is.

Somehow Democratic operations totally whiffed the historical big picture, and assumed there was no chance Hispanics would drift toward Trump. Therefore they took the demographic totally for granted until September of this year. In fact, we didn't allow Beto to speak at the convention and had almost no Hispanic input at the convention. Contrast to the GOP, which featured a Cuban businessman from Miami on stage the first night of its convention, ranting against socialism.

Now we're bringing in Bloomberg and others while desperately patching in the final two months. That can only rescue partially.

As I posted a few days ago, just because we had lots of margin for error given Trump's low approval rating, doesn't mean errors were not being made. It is laughable to look at these guys' titles as paid campaign professionals and somehow assign all knowledge and competence.

[BusyBeingBest]

35. If any politician suggested that people who share

my DNA, nationality and heritage are inherently garbage, and treats them as shittily as Trump has done to Latino immigrants and asylum seekers, I'd be hell-bent to get him or her voted out of office. I don't understand what's so objectionable about Biden that they think Trump would be better. It's insanity--but single issue anti-abortion voters tend to be religiously insane, so there's that.

[Budi]

14. My thoughts exactly. Wtf is so hard about this decision?

Easy answer...💙

[NorthOf270]

17. There are Hispanics who hate immigrants.

They don't think Trump is talking about them.

[LizBeth]

23. Exactly.

[tormadjax]

28. Hispanics are idiots?!

I don't think so sir!

[BusyBeingBest]

31. Ma'am. If they vote for Trump, they are indeed idiots.

[tormadjax]

42. That's not what you said

[peggysue2]

39. From what I've read

It's primarily Hispanic men who are into the whole macho thing. They are not fond of the Democratic lean towards women, the gay community and even the AA community. And some have bought into the socialist/communist smear.

[marmar]

13. OMFG. Are you fucking serious?

Blacks vote 90+ percent Democratic, Hispanics solidly majority Democratic, and THEY'RE the problem? ..... Again, are you FUCKING serious?

[jcgoldie]

19. "Do not come running for support for dreamers..."??

Seriously do we want a transactional president who only operates for self gain and works for 1/2 the country? You should rethink this sentiment.

[LisaL]

6. Polls have been all over the place.

At this point, just ignore the polls, get out there and vote.

[kansasobama]

9. NYT Polls are A+

Very good polling..

[LisaL]

15. If polling were that good, Hillary would have been president.

Just get out there and vote.

[sunonmars]

21. This lot also predicted Beto would lose by 8, he lost by 2.2

[Eid Ma Clack Shaw]

41. Also had Rs sweeping NV, McSally winning in 2018.

Not a good recent track record in the SW. Plenty of folks in Texas think it’s a genuine knife-edge state.

[LizBeth]

10. In my gut I never felt Texas was in play. The last couple days have excited me. I have no idea.

[Binkie The Clown]

12. Lots of strong Catholic, anti-choice people. nt

[LizBeth]

24. +1

[Drahthaardogs]

38. Actually, I'm from that part of the world

And I cannot remember ever seeing a staunch Catholic Republican Hispanic. It’s those who have been converted to “evangelical” that are Republican.

[Binkie The Clown]

45. Ah. Thank you. Another stereotype bites the dust. nt

[VMA131Marine]

18. Be careful when drawing conclusions about demographic groups

A lot of the time the number of those people in the sample an the margin of error is correspondingly much larger. The University of Texas at Tyler poll has Biden at +3 with an MOE of +-3.22%. Hispanics make up 22% of the 925 people sampled and the margin of error on results attributed just to that segment of the poll is +- 5.74%, which is nearly double the MOE of the sample as a whole.

[sunonmars]

20. There is a hell of a lot of parsing and ifs ands and buts here

[liskddksil]

25. 2 Other Polls released in last 2 days give Biden the lead.

Phone bank tonight with Beto and actor Ethan Hawke:

https://act.betoorourke.com/event/gotv-phone-bank/34526?source=map&akid=

[onetexan]

34. yea i'm not putting much stock in the polls. I just know there's great turnout in TX & rest remains

to be seen whether Biden w carry the state. Too early to count him out. It ain't over till the gorgeous dark-skinned lady sings Hoping for the best of course.

[triron]

43. I'm in Albuquerque. Just signed up.

[liskddksil]

44. Woot nt

[My Pet Orangutan]

26. Oh ye of little faith

An astonishing 7.4 million early votes. 83% of all votes cast in 2016. Watch and see. Texas is finally going blue.

[sunonmars]

27. The crosstabs have Trump winning Houston/Harris 46/44, thats a joke.

[RandySF]

29. There' a lot red outside Houston.

[Rstrstx]

47. Yeah, just look at Montgomery County

North of Houston, it’s absurdly Republican, a suburban county that votes like a rural one and is usually the one county in TX that nets the most Republican votes. The fact that the Houston metro is 2 points different is an improvement from a decade ago.

I think the poll has mildly overstated Trump’s support across all groups but not by a lot, Biden will certainly get more than 78% of the black vote and probably more than 30% of the white vote. A Texas Tribune poll about a month ago had white support at around 35% for comparison. The under 30 group looks suspiciously low too, it broke 71-29 for O’Rourke in 2018 and I’d expect more than the 50-something percent is has for Biden (though it probably still won’t be as high as Beto). The biggest number I question is Trump’s favorability rating, +6 seems too high given all that’s happened (his approval rating was +0 in the 2018 exit polls). Otherwise the numbers look fairly sound albeit with a slight R bias, other than the black and maybe youth vote there are no numbers that look like they’re off by double digits. A large number of people have already voted and Biden is currently leading among those who voted early and by mail, that sounds right.

That said, the Hispanic shift towards Trump is not a complete surprise, it’s mostly among males. Part of it is the taxes/socialism thing like you see in Florida but most of it is guns - they like to hunt and love their firearms. A number of them are also employed or have someone in the family in law enforcement or military at the state or federal level.

And while it’s not mentioned in the article, I don’t think Biden’s fossil fuel comments will particularly hurt him, more people in the state are employed by renewable energy and climate change is a big issue with younger voters. I think most people assume the future will have fewer fossil fuels.

[Happy Hoosier]

30. It'd be great to take Texas...

... but not at the expense of taking states we have a better shot at. It always seems like it's a cycle away. Same for Georgia. But we really CAN win AZ and NC. And we really MUST win WI, MI, and PA.

[vercetti2021]

33. And we have another poll saying he was ahead

Just vote don't take any of these polls serious come on now

[beachbumbob]

36. Who the fuck is doing the early voting in record numbers and they

think it's for trump? What part of 2018 did they miss?

[Awsi Dooger]

37. Biden has lost some Hispanic net but more importantly gained big among independents

Swing independents will decide this election in Biden's favor. Not every state has high Hispanic impact. Every state has big independent numbers. The net varies from state to state but the overall major positive swing from 2016 is easily the key variable in this race. If you want to root for something, root for non-affiliated numbers to rise everywhere, like mail ballot return rate in Florida, etc. That is a grind edge to Biden.

I'll paste the key section from the recent poll from Texas Politics Project. That is easily the best source on Texas politics. They survey the state multiple times every year:

https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/five-medium-hot-takes-first-wave-october-2020-uttexas-tribune-poll-results

"The trend in Trump’s job approval among independents went into net-negative territory a year ago in the October 2019 UT/Texas Tribune Poll, when it was 41% approve, 51% disapprove (net -10). In our October 2020 poll, his rating among independents has descended to 31% approve, 54% disapprove, 41% strongly (net -23%). Among the independents in the likely voter pool, 37% preferred Trump, 45% Biden, and 7% an unspecified “someone else.” At this stage in 2016, the October 2016 UT/TT poll showed Trump with 47% of independents and Clinton with only 19%. When Republicans enjoyed a 10%-12% baseline advantage not so long ago (Mitt Romney won the state in 2012 by 14 points), independents could be expected to translate a broadly conservative orientation into a small supplemental advantage for Republicans, but their impact on the election, given the Republican baseline, was to pile onto the inevitable outcome, not necessarily to have much of a say in the election as a group. With Trump fairly consistently leading in statewide polling but only (on average) in the mid-single digits, and a few dozen legislative and congressional races looking very competitive after being decided by 10 points or less in 2018, targeting and persuading independents is going to matter a lot more to candidates of both parties in 2020. We’ll have a lot more analysis of the dynamics around independents soon."

[BlueLucy]

40. Machismo

I'm half Mexican. Mexicans are actually very conservative in many areas... Religion, sexism..

[triron]

46. Did they break down between those already voted and not voted?