Bill Kristol: A Tale of Three Possible Outcomes

[brooklynite]

Size of defeat matters. A Trump defeat by 5 or 6 points in the popular vote, say, and especially one in which Republicans hold the Senate, would look somewhat like 1992. A defeat by 8 or 9 points, with the loss of the Senate, would be more reminiscent of 1980. A double-digit tsunami extending even to the loss of Republican strongholds such as Texas or Georgia, accompanied by a higher number of Senate seats flipping, might begin to look more like 1932.

Consider three alternate Wednesday, November 4, headlines:

“Trump loses presidency as Midwest flips; GOP holds Senate.”
“Trump defeated by big margin; election called early as Florida and North Carolina go to Biden; Democrats win Senate.”
“Biden wins by double digits in popular vote; rout extends to victory in Texas; Democrats control Senate easily.”

The initial reactions to these would be very different. But so, probably, would be the lasting effects. One would be a defeat for Trump, the second a rejection not just of Trump but perhaps of Trumpism. The third would open up the possibility for a re-making of the GOP and of conservatism itself.

Of course, history doesn’t repeat itself. It doesn’t even rhyme. And election consequences don’t move in a straight line from size of victory to impact on our politics. But it does seem likely that next week not just the fact of victory, but the margin of victory, will matter.

The Bulwark

[wryter2000]

1. None of our current "journalists" would write the third

More like "Biden wins in a landslide, and Democrats take the Senate, but at what price?"

[mercuryblues]

3. You nailed it

How a Biden landslide will bury the Dems

How a Dem takeover of the senate harms a Biden presidency

With a supermajority, will the Dems be able to legislate?

[wryter2000]

4. Loved that last one

[dalton99a]

6. +1

[JDC]

5. Exactly.

[Mister Ed]

2. Margin of victory matters greatly - except to victorious Republicans.

They've been known to use a one-seat majority in the Senate or a dubious 537-vote lead in Florida as a pretext to rule as dictators.

[BlueWavePsych]

7. Option #3 please