OK: FWIW, I had a talk with a major newspaper editor yesterday.

[PCIntern]

For background, he’s older man soon to be retired, has that quiet brilliance of the old-fashioned newspaper people who truly bring an objective view to the world, despite their own prejudices. I have never known him to use hyperbole, exaggerate, or make statements which are not accurate. He was an acquaintance of all of the Philadelphia power elite during the last 40+ years and has countless interesting and often amusing anecdoteS about these people. I once reflected that he only tells me stories about people who are deceased, he never speaks of individuals who are still with us in order not to violate his own set of principles.

Yesterday, I asked him quite frankly what do you think of the presidential race? He said evenly, that Biden is going to win in a landslide, and that it is going to be embarrassing to the Republicans nationally, because there is going to be a near-sweep of down-ballot races in a multitude of regions. Of course, I followed up with a few questions and he said that he is privy to the private polls, and there is absolutely no question as to what is going to happen which will dwarf any cheating which the Trump folks are going to most certainly implement. He further stated that in 2018 many attempts were made nationally to undermine the Democrats but by sheer numbers they dominated.

I will admit that I felt somewhat better after he left. He has never steered me wrong.

[soothsayer]

1. Huzzah!

[Sherman A1]

2. Good news!

I will keep my fingers crossed 🤞 that he is right.

[N_E_1 for Tennis]

3. Not that it means anything but...

that is my feeling also.

[Mike 03]

4. Thank you for this post.

[ananda]

5. Yes!

I have also been thinking that Biden’s internal polls
must be good in order for him to concentrate on places
like Georgia and Texas.

Thanks

[elleng]

6. THANKS!!!

[SheltieLover]

7. Ty for sharing!

[barbtries]

8. it makes me feel better too.

the writing is on the wall. if it wasn't for 2016 I might be celebrating already.
6 days. the days fly by and they crawl by.

thank you for sharing.

[ms liberty]

9. My gut has been saying this, but I won't believe it until next week.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

35. Gut says a lot. I always think how much more motivation we have

than Republicans have, despite enthusiasm polls. Like we are in the "walk on glass to vote" mode and except for the most ardent trumpers, they are not.

Typically this would elate us...in a perfect world where no one rigs and cheats. Unless trump is the best actor in the world he's acting like it's proof certain he will be reelected. Scary.

[Habibi]

79. I don't even know what my gut is saying to me anymore, but

I'm with you, I'll believe it when I see the returns.

[North Shore Chicago]

10. It's worth a lot!

Thank you for sharing.

[634-5789]

11. Pedal still to the metal until it's OVER!

[lastlib]

32. THIS!!

We need to give the GOPee the same treatment George Floyd got!! Don't let them breathe easy!!

[2naSalit]

34. It ain't over till it's over...

To quote Yogi Berra(? )

[ProfessorGAC]

56. It Was, Indeed, Yogi!

1973

[2naSalit]

59. Thanks...

I forget sometimes.

[not_the_one]

77. The fat lady is still JUST over the horizon. But I can hear her starting her vocal exercises...

It is going to be one BEAUTIFUL ARIA.

Still, assume they are going to try some shit, so GOTV is the current earworm to be listening to.

[uponit7771]

82. We need to win down to Dog Catcher !!

[captain queeg]

12. I think so as well. I'm not as confident about the down ballot stuff though

Voter turn out is huge and will set records. And as I’ve heard it said here it’s not like there are a lot of new trump voters. You know trump & co will try some shenanigans but will be overwhelmed. A lot of politicians that have been supportive of him will decide to distance themselves, they already got what they wanted; tax cuts for the rich and a rethug SC. The scum bags will try to pretend they weren’t really supportive of him. I guess one funny thing that will come of it, after trumps defeat, when he he raving on twitter and fox, he’ll try to drag the rethugs into his insane world. Aside from Gaetz, Jorden, and Nunes the remaining rethugs will disappear. That will be very entertaining. Maybe the ones who lose their own election will stick by him for awhile but it will be obvious their support for Donnie is what cost them their jobs. I wouldn’t be surprised if trump goes out of his way to get even with the rethugs. He certainly would never admit he is at fault. Then maybe we’ll find out the secret compromising info he’s been lording over them.

[malaise]

13. Oh Yes!

Rec

[DIVINEprividence]

14. Biden is going to Texas to csmpaign

This tells you their internal numbers are looking good for the rust belt. If they weren’t, Biden would not be wasting his time there. So if we are making a serious play for Texas, we are kicking ass

[Lonestarblue]

17. I hope Biden has long coat tails.

We need the Senate if we are to get anything done. And in Texas we need to win nine seats to have a majority in the Texas House, which gives us a seat at the table for redistricting.

[IHaveNoName]

44. Considering how close the poll numbers are here in TX...

...it actually doesn't surprise me that Biden's coming down.

On my way home from work yesterday, I saw a LOT of Biden/Harris lawn signs, way, way way more than I saw for Clinton/Kaine 4 years ago. And there was one lonely T/P sign. Rural-ish Texas is not as red as it used to be.

[Vinca]

15. Thanks for posting this story. Maybe tonight I'll be able to sleep a little better.

I swear I woke up every hour on the hour last night and I know it's because I'm so freaked out by this election.

[PCIntern]

16. I as well....

Rough

[BComplex]

49. Yep. Sleep hasn't been going well here, either.

I'm just so fried, and afraid. I've felt like we were going to hand them a blood bath, but the stakes are just so high, it's hard to relax into it.

Besides, you KNOW trump won't let a great opportunity for drama pass him by after election night! He and billy bad barr are going to try every trick in the book to mess this up.

[YessirAtsaFact]

63. Three days in a row waking up at 4:30 - 5:00 am, can't go back to sleep

I wake up thinking about this stuff

[yellowdogintexas]

89. contact your county Democratic party

they will find you a phone bank or texting bank to work with.

[mountain grammy]

104. Same here.

[spanone]

18. ⭐️⭐️⭐️K&R ⭐️⭐️⭐️

[BobsYourUncle]

19. I do SO want this to be true. N/T

[dixiechiken1]

20. Can't thank you enough for posting this...

I've allowed myself a few moments of cautious optimism here and there but, like most of us, I'm still shell-shocked from 2016. This makes me feel better as I count the days, hours & minutes. 😊

[madaboutharry]

21. There are two things your post tells us.

First, the American people are sick and tired of living in a madhouse.

And second, Republicans are liars, crooks, and cheaters and everyone needs to know it.

I’m glad you posted this. It is very calming.

[obamanut2012]

23. second all of this

[Joinfortmill]

38. 👍

[crickets]

75. Well put. I agree, messages like this are a balm to the nerves. Onward. nt

[GeoWilliam750]

22. From his lips to God's ears

[Laura PourMeADrink]

24. This is heartening. I am curious though about these "private polls". Your friend is

implying that there are polls out there that are way more accurate than anything we see. Are these the same as candidate "internal polls" we always hear about? And, why/how do they manage to be more accurate?

I also wonder if the circumstances of the day we are in makes the outcome virtually impossible to predict. Due to covid, our typical political world is completely turned upside down. How can any poll make sense of all this uncertainty.

[PCIntern]

25. The campaigns commission their own polls.

Others here are better acquainted with their attributes.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

28. Do you think these are the same secret polls your friend saw?

[PCIntern]

31. See the post directly below this one...

He intimated that these were private polls. I don’t ask too many questions, these people are careful as to what they say and to whom.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

57. Yes, thanks. Just something I never really thought much about. Why certain

private/internal polls are supposed to be so much more pinpointed and accurate than the ones the general public sees. Other than cost.

[GumboYaYa]

88. When I was younger and had more stamina I ran field operations for campaigns.

I was Howard Dean's field manager in MO when he ran for president and did the same for a few congressional campaigns. The big difference to me in internal polling versus public polling is focus. Public polling focuses on the top line horse race number. Internal polling digs much deeper into specific issues and can pick up shifts in the electorate earlier than public polling. At least that is how I used them.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

101. Wow..totally impressed. Must have been devastating how it

all went down for him. Last brilliantly strategic intellectual, in my mind.

Do you think trump's internals are showing him a plausible path? Or just a last ditch effort? I was trying to think of a time when trump faced a glaring loss - how he responded. He is SO transparent. Couldn't think of anything. Scares me the most - his absolute certainty he will pull a win off.

[GumboYaYa]

108. I think his internals are showing that any time they are talking about COVID

Last edited Thu Oct 29, 2020, 01:35 PM - Edit history (1)

they are losing votes. Which is why COVID, COVID, COVID that's all the media wants to talk about and it will go away Nov 4, has become part of his stump speech. I also think they are seeing the path to 270 narrowing pretty much only to win a combo of FL, AZ, NC, PA , IA and GA tat gets him to 270. But lord only knows what they are seeing, you can't always assume they are acting rationally.

[Captain Zero]

98. But knowing Trump's need for adoration,

I would be surprised if he has not brow-beat his internal pollsters into minimizing Bidens counts. I mean there's less Biden votes if you don't count them, right?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

103. Can you think of a time when trump was facing absolute certain

defeat when he totally ignored the obvious and soldiered on?

[Claustrum]

29. I started reading Dave Wasserman's twitter for a few days.

He said he has seen a lot of private district level polls that are showing a big shift to democrats. In 2016, he saw the opposite and started talking about the red warning signs for Hillary before election day. My impression or interpretation of what he said is that the suburb independent/republicans are shifting to democrats and making a lot of states competitive and I remember Dave said it's closer to a double digit lead than a single digit lead.

Strangely, yesterday, both Dave and Nate Cohn posted their "most likely" Biden flip states prediction and WI is way behind both AZ and PA. We are probably in for a weird election night because it is going to different than we expected. Biden might overperform in the sun belt but underperform in WI, MI and PA.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

33. Very interesting. Because it sounds like the "suburban independent Republicans

that are shifting to Biden are in the south vs. the north?

Wonder too about the fact that 1/2 of the 2016 electorate # has already voted - how this plays into the "district level" polling you speak of. Do they poll voted and not voted yet constituents. And the way people vote is quite different depending on what state you are talking about. For instance, surprisingly, Quinnapiac said that early voters in Texas are breaking 48-46 to Biden. In other places, it just intuitively feels like that gap is much more to Biden's favor.

[Claustrum]

37. My guess on the shift in the south vs. the north is that

WI, MI, and PA are traditionally blue states so there were more independent that leans left comparing to the traditionally red south, which they would have more red leaning independent shifting blue.

As far as the voted vs not voted for polling, I've a lot of conflicting answers for it. Some says that's why they think the polling number is off (thus we will see polling error from that this year). Some says it's already accounted for because they push for the answer for how certain they will vote (and that would include people that already early voted and those that are saying they definitely will vote on election day).

And on the early votes thing, I hate that the press is making a big deal out of the democratic vs. republican vote total while completely ignoring the independent votes. If the independent vote is 2:1 to Biden, it almost doesn't matter what vote margin democrats has on early votes. Same thing applies if it's 2:1 to Trump, then whatever lead democrats have will be erased. I think we just don't know until election day when we see how the votes are actually trending.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

51. Interesting. Read too that not all pollsters have adjusted for

an overweighting of college educated in the rust belt - a factor that explains clinton's loss in 2016 vs polls.

Other challenges for pandemic 2020:

1) with mail ins, so much easier to vote, no one knows what the total electorate will be.

2) the affect of a pandemic that caused millions of families to have to teach their kids at home. Voters could blame trump or like him because he wants schools reopened asap.

3) the affect of a better educated public...since they spent so many more hours at home watching the news.

4) the affect of millions of college kids who may be voting in home state vs college state.

5) the affect of almost a quarter million covid deaths x the avg number of people in their orbit who loved them and will hold it against Trump.

Totally agree with what you said..we won't really know until election day. Too bad Tim Russert isn't around. He would have loved the uncertainty of it all

[WheelWalker]

26. With our thoughts we create the world.

[liberalla]

27. Oh thank you for sharing this info. It makes me feel better too...

Not totally relaxed, but able to take deeper breaths and feel a bit calmer. Thank you!

ETA: a landslide, a near sweep of down ballot races, and the national embarrassment and humiliation of republicans will be healing balm for my soul!

[bucolic_frolic]

30. In 2016 Republicans hadn't tipped their hand, now we know their criminal M.O.

Voters are awakening to the idea that there must be some reason they are trying to prevent us from voting. We are worth more to them silenced - or perhaps covid dead - than voting.

Dems used mail-in ballots far more than Republicans, and will vote for days if they can. How many privileged Republicans will stand in line for 9 hours to vote for Donald Trump? So they only trick Donnie has left is litigating a premature end to voting. And Americans will not stand for it, not even if the Supremely Corrupted buy his snake oil.

Editors soon to retire is a small universe, but I won't venture a guess

[Laura PourMeADrink]

55. True mysteries of it all! Why every Republican isn't asked and

Why Dems don't bring up every hour or every day

1) why are you trying to stop people from voting?

2) why don't you care that 20 million + people won't be able to see a doctor. People who are not now forced to buy insurance?

[Sugarcoated]

81. Crooked Don and the crooked Republicans

have radicalized women in the suburbs. I've been a political junkie for years while many of my family and friends didn't pay much attention. The one good thing to come of this nightmare is so many are paying attention and participating in Democracy. I've so often wished people would wake up, this "awakening" has been a delight to see!

[Joinfortmill]

36. From his lips to God's ear.

[DownriverDem]

39. Sure hope so

I'm concerned about the 6-3 SC and trump yelling to not count any votes after 11/3. Michigan will not be done counting on 11/3. We have no early counting. This is our first mail in/drop off voting.

[Tommymac]

40. Thank You for this. I needed it.

In my heart I know Joe & Kamala are going to steamroll the Killer Clown and his murderous enablers.

But the possibility of the trumpites getting the Supremes involved has my anxieties on red alert.

We need a huge turnout to overcome any plans the rethugs have made for a Judicial Coup. And these numbers and your contact's informed opinion are good indications the Blue Tsunami is really going to happen.

[YessirAtsaFact]

64. For the SCOTUS to matter it has to be really close

Trump has to be leading on election night

73 million people have voted as of 10/28. I can't see Trump leading on election night.

[Tommymac]

65. I know this to be true.

But I have anxiety disorder. So I need reassurance from others to help calm me down.

I have not slept well for the last week, and it is only going to get worse.

Thank gawd for DU and the support of everyone here - You ALL are making a difference, especially for folks like me.

[mcar]

41. I know just what you mean about old-time newspaper editors

so I take your report to heart. Thanks, PCIntern.

[volstork]

42. Thanks, PCI

I needed to hear this today. Appreciate (as always) your post.

[MineralMan]

43. So Mote It Be!

[GeoWilliam750]

102. Indeed, So Mote It Be

[lagomorph777]

45. Thank you for posting this! Very encouraging!

[davsand]

46. So mote it be!

The last few days have felt incredibly brutal, and I've been searching for ANY positive news. Thank you for sharing this!





Laura

[rainin]

47. I want this to be true. I'll never feel safe until we have 100% paper ballots

that are counted by hand and tabulated without modems. Every number must be posted where everyone can see and add for themselves. Open and fair elections.

This would just be a start, but at least then, I could trust the polls.

[BComplex]

60. This!!! I want double counting every election with paper ballots that CAN be scanned

into a computer, WITHOUT a modem, and the totals from each precinct hand counted by independent auditors to match the computer scan total. Until that's done, NO CERTIFICATION!

Plus, we really need to get rid of the electoral college. That's the part of the "republic" that needs to be done away with.

[USALiberal]

48. He has no more data than anyone else. Private polls mean nothing also. nt

[YessirAtsaFact]

67. Sorry - disagree: Pollsters at the House district level know the district nuances

They don't sugar coat anything b/c these polls are not for publication.

The provide a lot more detailed information that you see in public polling because they are getting paid a lot of money for it.

[stopdiggin]

92. we've been hearing for a month

or more that "internal" polling for the WH and the Republican party is a nightmare -- which I have to read as meaning significantly worse than the public polls. I think that is what the OP is referencing -- and I think it's almost certainly true. The best news here? This man is also saying the down ballot losses are going to be epic. It's not over -- but a lot of people have started to develop a little spring in their step.
----- --- --- -----

[mnhtnbb]

50. I certainly hope he's right.

Did he see Hillary's loss?

[patphil]

52. In the immortal words of Yogi Berra, "It ain't over 'til it's over".

Keep the image of a landslide in mind, but keep pushing to get the vote out.

[ecstatic]

53. That's good. GOP cheating worries me too

News pundits are scratching their heads over the towns that tRump is choosing to visit during the final stretch. I fear that the counties trump visits will be ground zero for pUtin's hackers--they will attempt to run up the numbers and overtake the entire state's vote totals. I really hope the FBI is monitoring the situation closely.

[smb]

66. Putin Seems To Be Throwing Cheato Under The Bus

He made some statements in an interview dismissing the "Hunter Biden laptop" thing as a big nothing, for instance. He's smart and realistic enough (unlike Cheato) to realize that Biden is going to win, and trying to prevent that will fail and accomplish nothing but steel the new administration's resolve to slap punishing sanctions on Russia (which is basically a shytehole Third World country with oil and what it's able to maintain of the old Soviet arsenal, and thus very fragile if subjected to serious economic pressure).

[ecstatic]

94. I really hope so

I saw a long list of comments on Twitter with theories on why putin did that. He's done a spectacular job getting in our heads!

Link to tweet

?s=20

[Wounded Bear]

54. Hopeful comments, indeed...nt

[Ms. Toad]

58. Curious as to whether you had a similar conversation in 2016 -

I'd put more faith in this prediction if you had a similar conversation, and he was suggesting a very close race (or Clinton losing).

[PCIntern]

83. Nope

Did not have this conversation. He was concerned about Hillary’s scattershot campaign and disorganization. But was hopeful and somewhat positive. As were we all.

[Ms. Toad]

85. I wasn't (positive) -

and I was repeatedly blasted and called a concern troll for it.

[PCIntern]

86. Yeah. This place has its moments...

[PatSeg]

61. Yes, that does help

Thanks for posting.

[grantcart]

62. Do you think the fact that you were holding a drill next to an exposed nerve

May have incentivized him to calm you down?



Just kidding

[drbtg1]

68. Nah, there's no need for pulpal exposure when...

...the patient might be inclined (possibly without even asking) to offer the info after a little N2O!

[LAS14]

69. Thanks for sharing this!! nt

[BobTheSubgenius]

70. I'm with you!

Given the back story you gave us, your report of this conversation has been more heartening that virtually anything and everything else I've read or heard lately.

Thank you so much!

[LittleGirl]

71. I believe it!

Those standing in line to vote aren’t there hoping to keep things the way they are.
They are standing in line for change!

[Roy Rolling]

72. *Make* it Happen

Until November 4, it’s full campaign mode for me. Encouraging those who haven’t voted, and undermining those who might vote Trump.

I want Trump voters to feel defeat now, and not bother to waste a vote on the GOP candidate. Voting for Biden is better, but not-voting for Trump has the same statistical impact.

[Blue Owl]

73. K&R

[Alacritous Crier]

74. Thank you!

I'm printing this up to read everyday between now and Election Day to keep my spirits up.

I'll sure be glad when this madness is over.

[ismnotwasm]

76. Nice!

[Snackshack]

78. I certainly hope you are right.

So far early turnout looks fabulous.



My biggest fear now is SCOTUS.

[paulkienitz]

80. the cheating may still matter in the Senate

There are somewhere between four and nine senate races within the margin of error of polling to predict, and cheating could well be enough to make a difference in several senate races at once.

[PatrickforO]

84. I'll see the first Huzzah, and raise you...

HUZZAH!!!

[Bluepinky]

87. Thank u, makes me feel better!

[Kid Berwyn]

90. Thank you, Doctor!

The editor’s analysis is spot-on.



Reminds us that we will need to toss the toaster. Some things cannot be disinfected.

[denvine]

91. Love hearing that!

Thank you for sharing.

[Hekate]

93. KnR

[lucca18]

95. Thank you!

I needed to hear good news about Biden.
I am nervous, and keep playing all these different scenarios about the voting and outcome in my mind!
It’s making me crazy!

[Warpy]

96. I just hope he's not suffering from regional myopia

It's the depopulated rural states that Dumdum is most likely to take, the ones that are over represented in Congress and therefore have EC numbers that mount up quickly.

If by some miracle your friend is correct, one of the first tasks has to be to reapportion representation, either by expanding the number in the House or by cutting low population states like mine down while adding representation to seriously under represented states like
California, Texas, and New York.

Anything less is taxation without representation, and where have we heard that before?

[lanlady]

97. I'm inclined to agree

I think the Democrats are going to have an amazing night on November 3. There'll be a couple of disappointments, mainly in Senate races, but the not-so-good news will be far outweighed by the good.

Trump may hem and haw for day or two before he concedes, but he'll have to accept the judgment of history. And it will be brutal for the Republicans.

[Chemisse]

99. I suspect he is spot on.

I don't want to get my hopes way up. But wouldn't it be the best feeling if it all went down this way?

[smirkymonkey]

100. I so hope he is right.

I want to believe with all my heart that he is and I honestly believe that he is speaking the truth. However, I put nothing past these republican slime-balls t do whatever they can to fuck things up for us next week. I hope I am wrong about that.

[BlancheSplanchnik]

105. Thank you, PCIntern.

Eases my nerves a bit.

[brewens]

106. Old school newspapermen are awesome. Used to be we had guys like that all through the media.

Many people don't understand news reporting. I had three years in high school on a college level journalism program. Better than that really, we put many major university student papers to shame.

As a rookie, it's really surprising how hard it is to write basic news copy and not get busted for injecting bias. You read the lessons and listen to the lectures but still don't understand. It takes training and practice.

AP writers do a good job. Bias will come in where editors decide what to run and where in a paper, and what the headline writers do. That depends on editors approval too.

[Vivienne235729]

107. Good, I SO SO hope and pray it is true. I just can't imagine the alternative.